MyTeslaWeekend Rumor - Dual Motor only for the first 500k units produced!

[Jhodgesatmb]

I think that is a good way to lose a lot of supporters (since Elon himself said the quad would be first), but I also think that anyone that knows, and would be willing to tell a YouTuber like Brian, is crazy. Do the whole concept is fishy to me. Of course, being a tri-motor reservation holder, I am 100% biased.

I just can’t imagine Elon being willing to go 2 years building the middle-line truck. I could see him splitting production but not all DM trucks.

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[Ogre]

3.) Cybertruck will be Dual Motor only for approximately the first 500k units produced because they will have a shortage of carbon wrap needed for the quad motors as its all going to Semi and other model's plaid motors. And due to the amount of models sharing the same motors, they will be trying to get as many cybertrucks built as possible with the fewest motors until the bottleneck clears up.

From today… it will be 3 -4 years before we see Cybertruck #500,000.

Nobody has a “Rumor” about Tesla that will be remotely reliable that involves the first 500,000 Cybertrucks. That’s 9-12+ months of waiting, 1 year of producing around 100k trucks. Another year of producing 250,000 trucks, and about 6-9 months to get to truck #500k. Simply put… anyone who claims they can predict where this will be that far out is full of shit.

The reasoning is interesting… but the timeline is just nonsense. This doesn’t sound like the sort of problem which would take Tesla 3-4 years to solve for.

 

[Ogre]

I think that is a good way to lose a lot of supporters (since Elon himself said the quad would be first), but I also think that anyone that knows, and would be willing to tell a YouTuber like Brian, is crazy. Do the whole concept is fishy to me. Of course, being a tri-motor reservation holder, I am 100% biased.

Dual motor first makes a lot of sense. But putting the 500 mile truck and the 14,000 pound towing truck off for 3-4 years? Nah. Maybe it would be 6 months out.

 

[JBee]

Honestly I don't think they understand the CF wrapped rotor design and that it allows for smaller higher output motors in general.

I'm not sure the semi will be getting them for all motors, but might become the product they put their legacy induction motors through. Semi having 3 motors instead of 4 is telling somehow that it might still have 2x induction for peak and one PM motor for cruise. Efficiency is even more important for Semi, and cruise will be in the 140kW range which is doable with one CF PM motor. Induction is better for peak torque to accelerate, regen and coasting unpowered.

As for first 500k Dual motors, I still don't think we will get anything but Quad motors in a CT. The reason is simple, as that video also shows Monroes report where it says a M3 motor costs just $753.

 

[Crissa]

They don't improve torque, or efficiency.

They do if you gear down the output.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Hot Take: Maybe this rumor means Cybertruck production will be so quick that Tesla will blast half a million trucks out the door in the first year.

/s

 

[happy intruder]

is that 400k in the dual motor queue as suggested by the reservation tracker or overall? Cause I assume they are just going to go down the line in order regardless of original variant choice and give everyone the option to change their variant.

I'll change from CT3 to CT2 if I get 4680's and 400 mile range and will keep FSD (7k)

 

[Cyberman]

Hot Take: Maybe this rumor means Cybertruck production will be so quick that Tesla will blast half a million trucks out the door in the first year.

/s

'Zactly.

 

[charliemagpie]

If it's the Duel first, and taking the first 1 million orders,,,

that's 400,000 happy customers… And for the TRI… 400,000 unhappy customers.

Usually win if we take a 2% view… whichever comes first…. 8000 people likely to cancel with an abundance of vitriol

 

[JBee]

Dude dual, unless you have a sword fight with sharpened CT's, then its duel.

 

[Deleted member 12457]

Honestly I don't think they understand the CF wrapped rotor design and that it allows for smaller higher output motors in general.

I'm not sure the semi will be getting them for all motors, but might become the product they put their legacy induction motors through. Semi having 3 motors instead of 4 is telling somehow that it might still have 2x induction for peak and one PM motor for cruise. Efficiency is even more important for Semi, and cruise will be in the 140kW range which is doable with one CF PM motor. Induction is better for peak torque to accelerate, regen and coasting unpowered.

As for first 500k Dual motors, I still don't think we will get anything but Quad motors in a CT. The reason is simple, as that video also shows Monroes report where it says a M3 motor costs just $753.

It's not the cost of the motors it's the rumor that Tesla is having issues building enough of them, maybe because of the graphite wrap. Tesla needs to get a CT out before Ford can figure things out and a dual motor CT would do that.

My reservation number is in the 50K's but I don't know if that's overall or just duals. I reserved later in the day of the announcement. I live in Washington state so Tesla might put me lower on the list but the Seattle area has a few Tesla stores and superchargers up and down I-5 so I am in an area where they would work.

 

[JBee]

It's not the cost of the motors it's the rumor that Tesla is having issues building enough of them, maybe because of the graphite wrap. Tesla needs to get a CT out before Ford can figure things out and a dual motor CT would do that.

My reservation number is in the 50K's but I don't know if that's overall or just duals. I reserved later in the day of the announcement. I live in Washington state so Tesla might put me lower on the list but the Seattle area has a few Tesla stores and superchargers up and down I-5 so I am in an area where they would work.

The CF wrap isn't special nor is there much of it, maybe a few hundred grams at most per rotor. There is barely a shortage going on from what I can tell, and prices are around $20kg for industrial grade atm. That would be $3-4 of CF per rotor for the wrap...

The CF shortage is FUD IMHO.

 

[Ogre]

that's 400,000 happy customers… And for the TRI… 400,000 unhappy customers.

Funny how nobody seems to blink at mentioning a quad only release with the quad being $80k locking out 60% of buyers. But mention a dual only release and people are suddenly worried about unhappy customers. Tri motor reservation holders might cry!

 

[CyberGus]

Dude dual, unless you have a sword fight with sharpened CT's, then its duel.

 

[Paradox]

If the dual motor still still has less range than the tri or quad, whichever they decide to release, I’ll patiently continue waiting as range is a priority for me.

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