9k Ton IDRA Gigapress For Cybertruck Has ARRIVED IN USA!

[Crissa]

Do you think they will do 2 lines straight away, or one after the other once the dial the first one in?

And do you really think they will announce the robotaxi/M2 after they have a production line set up? Wouldn't they want to guage interest first? Although I suppose if its a $20-25k model you'd expect them to fly off the line anyway.

I've been thinking how they would go about making a $25k EV. Maybe instead of doing a front and rear cast they do a left and right cast, but with pack and cabin included. I think the 9kt will do around 250kg a cast, which is not quite enough for single cast, but two pieces will work.

Basically it would include front and rear fenders (maybe front fender needs to removable for crash absorbtion). Then just throw in some seats, dash, cooling, bat and motor (fwd I think), slap on some doors, structual glass and wheels and roll out the door to the customer. Line would be super short, put "mini gigas" everywhere to avoid freight.

That seems to deserve its own thread.

But... One cast. One battery. So an inside, an outside, and a bottom. As few parts as possible.

And not until they have more cells than will fill all the Cybertruck and Model Y orders.

-Crissa

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[Dids]

Do you think they will do 2 lines straight away, or one after the other once the dial the first one in?

And do you really think they will announce the robotaxi/M2 after they have a production line set up? Wouldn't they want to guage interest first? Although I suppose if its a $20-25k model you'd expect them to fly off the line anyway.

I've been thinking how they would go about making a $25k EV. Maybe instead of doing a front and rear cast they do a left and right cast, but with pack and cabin included. I think the 9kt will do around 250kg a cast, which is not quite enough for single cast, but two pieces will work.

Basically it would include front and rear fenders (maybe front fender needs to removable for crash absorbtion). Then just throw in some seats, dash, cooling, bat and motor (fwd I think), slap on some doors, structual glass and wheels and roll out the door to the customer. Line would be super short, put "mini gigas" everywhere to avoid freight.

I do not think they would set up the lines but they might get the presses and do cybertruck in 2 lines. 3 months ago Sandy Munro visited IDRA and was shown a 9k ton giga press and a press that was disassembled and being shipped to the USA. It was not clear from the video that the press being shipped was a 9k ton one but it was red and white Tesla press. My point is that there are probably more than 1 9k ton giga press. They are not only needed for CT but probably also for robotaxi. If the pressed Sandy saw was being shipped 3 months ago was a 9k press then it would have arrived long before @greggertruck shipment... I think we missed the first 9k ton press being installed in Austin and that it is already there and this latest shipment is additional press.
The timeline from showing us the 9k ton press till now is too long... Idra has a start build of press to delivery to customer of 12 months. They dont waste 3 months of that time shipping considering that there is still assembly at the other end.
It probably takes 1 month to install / reassemble a press. Timeline seems to long ...
Do we really think Tesla is planning a ramp mid next year if they have no beta models yet? That they are still installing the machine to make the parts that will make beta models. This timeline seems too short....

 

[JBee]

I do not think they would set up the lines but they might get the presses and do cybertruck in 2 lines. 3 months ago Sandy Munro visited IDRA and was shown a 9k ton giga press and a press that was disassembled and being shipped to the USA. It was not clear from the video that the press being shipped was a 9k ton one but it was red and white Tesla press. My point is that there are probably more than 1 9k ton giga press. They are not only needed for CT but probably also for robotaxi. If the pressed Sandy saw was being shipped 3 months ago was a 9k press then it would have arrived long before @greggertruck shipment... I think we missed the first 9k ton press being installed in Austin and that it is already there and this latest shipment is additional press.
The timeline from showing us the 9k ton press till now is too long... Idra has a start build of press to delivery to customer of 12 months. They dont waste 3 months of that time shipping considering that there is still assembly at the other end.
It probably takes 1 month to install / reassemble a press. Timeline seems to long ...
Do we really think Tesla is planning a ramp mid next year if they have no beta models yet? That they are still installing the machine to make the parts that will make beta models. This timeline seems too short....

True but the betas could be using two smaller casts as well, or cnc machined ones, which are still affordable in the 10s-100s of vehicle range. Betas would probably go to crash testing, so that might have to bee done last after the castings are made, but all the other stuff should be possible with a cast alternative without to much issue to the results.

I agree that the delivery of 9k is not a known fact yet, neither if there is more of them. I'd imagine there is at least another one, either installed already or IRDA is making it now, just to get the production numbers required for CT.

If they can get the local structural battery line up and running by then too, we will have batteries in packs built locally, and then it's really just a question of the exoskeleton/SS forming and assembly. The rest of the big stuff, like motors/interior are all just off the Tesla shop list.

But back to Robotaxi: Do you really think they assembling a manufacturing line already without revealing the prototype? Is this a strategic move against competition or just because EM can't be bothered listening to all the "it's taking to long" whiners here on the forum/twitter?

 

[Dids]

True but the betas could be using two smaller casts as well, or cnc machined ones, which are still affordable in the 10s-100s of vehicle range. Betas would probably go to crash testing, so that might have to bee done last after the castings are made, but all the other stuff should be possible with a cast alternative without to much issue to the results.

I agree that the delivery of 9k is not a known fact yet, neither if there is more of them. I'd imagine there is at least another one, either installed already or IRDA is making it now, just to get the production numbers required for CT.

If they can get the local structural battery line up and running by then too, we will have batteries in packs built locally, and then it's really just a question of the exoskeleton/SS forming and assembly. The rest of the big stuff, like motors/interior are all just off the Tesla shop list.

But back to Robotaxi: Do you really think they assembling a manufacturing line already without revealing the prototype? Is this a strategic move against competition or just because EM can't be bothered listening to all the "it's taking to long" whiners here on the forum/twitter?

I do not think they are ready to build the robotaxi, I think factory expansion is for the robotaxi lines. I think that FSD level 5 approval will be started before robotaxi is shown.

 

[greggertruck]

I wouldn’t be super surprised if there’s a second press by summer

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the first 9k press is done / half way done at gigs Texas.

 

[rr6013]

True but the betas could be using two smaller casts as well, or cnc machined ones, which are still affordable in the 10s-100s of vehicle range. Betas would probably go to crash testing, so that might have to bee done last after the castings are made, but all the other stuff should be possible with a cast alternative without to much issue to the results.

I agree that the delivery of 9k is not a known fact yet, neither if there is more of them. I'd imagine there is at least another one, either installed already or IRDA is making it now, just to get the production numbers required for CT.

If they can get the local structural battery line up and running by then too, we will have batteries in packs built locally, and then it's really just a question of the exoskeleton/SS forming and assembly. The rest of the big stuff, like motors/interior are all just off the Tesla shop list.

But back to Robotaxi: Do you really think they assembling a manufacturing line already without revealing the prototype? Is this a strategic move against competition or just because EM can't be bothered listening to all the "it's taking to long" whiners here on the forum/twitter?

There’s at least another 12-18mo before the Cybertruck-ramp ahead. Its all timeline and as stated above there are milestones to go yet, before they are done.

Sure…we got evidence - bodies but @Crissa called them blanks for calibration purposes for line provisioning. That explains the way they look and appear to be… short.

EM’s humblebrag in reference to driving a Cybertruck is all-bespoke. Castings are probably benchmade samples from lab test confirmation at 100% scale before committing Tesla to fullsize molds for the 9k IDRA press.

Its existence will provide a testbed for all the technologies at GigaTX. Iterations will address rejects, errors and omissions not caught pre-build. It’ll give TechnoKing the GM(gold master) by which the production QC can be measured.

Unlike a prototype, everything on this next CT will be a production release candidate. NHTSA won’t certify until after the production CT is finalized. IDK if it could test earlier. Crash tests could run if they’d allow.

Milestones ahead: IDRA 9k, TechnoKingCT, BetaCT, NHTSA, SOP and RAMP. IDK what weekly figure qualifies as “real” ramp. SOP could tweak, reconfigure and change as roadblocks popup. RAMP should be overnight. Its all prepwork like Thai cooking where everything has been done ahead needing a quick assembly.

Cybertruck is simplified into three component assemblies (rolling chassis, exoskeleton and interior). A ton a pre-assembly goes into each component. Await the footage that clocks a Cybertruck beginning to end on a stopwatch as it gies thru GigaTX. More interesting, the footage before GigaTX that clocks battery making, motors and stainless steel production that happens before GigaTX. Obviously, there’s flex pre-GigaTX in production that doesn’t afford Tesla that luxury. But Tesla still must anticipate lead time flex into its ramp expectations.

That’s why Cybertruck remains 12–18mo out from seeing real ramp with “other” factors to conform beyond GigaTX alone. Once Tesla pulls the trigger CT’s will fly out the back of the plant. Last image Elon needs are Cybertrucks parked out in the weeds.

 

[greggertruck]

Great points, good thoughts but I am pretty sure they’ll have 500 trucks a week by Christmas 2023.

There’s at least one press at or near Texas now, they’re dialing in the bodies. Elon should have a beta in 2 weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is lite deliverable production before April 30th. I bet we see Elons truck driving around Giga Texas before end of year. Heck, maybe he’ll go out in it like when he took out the OG.

The fan boy will doubt what I say here, but Tesla simply can not afford to have 18 more months of no Cybertruck. We’re pretty far overdue. That is expensive. They can’t introduce other vehicles til that truck is shipping in 1k a week volume minimum. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t hear anything at all on the “Robotaxi / others” til this time next year.

 

[HaulingAss]

They were talking about status of the production line.

They should have a very good handle on how close the assembly line is to cranking out bets trucks.

Yes, but your comment was that you wouldn't put much weight into Musk's comment that beta Cybertruck would be driving around in a few weeks. You seem to be taking a very narrow position here for what should be broadly interpreted as initial production line beta units getting ready to start being (slowly) produced as the production processes are tested.

 

[Dids]

There’s at least another 12-18mo before the Cybertruck-ramp ahead. Its all timeline and as stated above there are milestones to go yet, before they are done.

Sure…we got evidence - bodies but @Crissa called them blanks for calibration purposes for line provisioning. That explains the way they look and appear to be… short.

EM’s humblebrag in reference to driving a Cybertruck is all-bespoke. Castings are probably benchmade samples from lab test confirmation at 100% scale before committing Tesla to fullsize molds for the 9k IDRA press.

Its existence will provide a testbed for all the technologies at GigaTX. Iterations will address rejects, errors and omissions not caught pre-build. It’ll give TechnoKing the GM(gold master) by which the production QC can be measured.

Unlike a prototype, everything on this next CT will be a production release candidate. NHTSA won’t certify until after the production CT is finalized. IDK if it could test earlier. Crash tests could run if they’d allow.

Milestones ahead: IDRA 9k, TechnoKingCT, BetaCT, NHTSA, SOP and RAMP. IDK what weekly figure qualifies as “real” ramp. SOP could tweak, reconfigure and change as roadblocks popup. RAMP should be overnight. Its all prepwork like Thai cooking where everything has been done ahead needing a quick assembly.

Cybertruck is simplified into three component assemblies (rolling chassis, exoskeleton and interior). A ton a pre-assembly goes into each component. Await the footage that clocks a Cybertruck beginning to end on a stopwatch as it gies thru GigaTX. More interesting, the footage before GigaTX that clocks battery making, motors and stainless steel production that happens before GigaTX. Obviously, there’s flex pre-GigaTX in production that doesn’t afford Tesla that luxury. But Tesla still must anticipate lead time flex into its ramp expectations.

That’s why Cybertruck remains 12–18mo out from seeing real ramp with “other” factors to conform beyond GigaTX alone. Once Tesla pulls the trigger CT’s will fly out the back of the plant. Last image Elon needs are Cybertrucks parked out in the weeds.

I think you have errors in your analysis:
CT will not have 3 component assemblies. It will not have a skateboard or rolling chassis. The exoskeleton is the chassis. Assume rear cast and front are assembled before install into frame. Seats attached to battery before installed in chassis.

 

[HaulingAss]

Great points, good thoughts but I am pretty sure they’ll have 500 trucks a week by Christmas 2023.

There’s at least one press at or near Texas now, they’re dialing in the bodies. Elon should have a beta in 2 weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is lite deliverable production before April 30th. I bet we see Elons truck driving around Giga Texas before end of year. Heck, maybe he’ll go out in it like when he took out the OG.

The fan boy will doubt what I say here, but Tesla simply can not afford to have 18 more months of no Cybertruck. We’re pretty far overdue. That is expensive. They can’t introduce other vehicles til that truck is shipping in 1k a week volume minimum. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t hear anything at all on the “Robotaxi / others” til this time next year.

I tend to agree with your analysis leaning towards Tesla going all out to bring Cybertruck to market ASAP. They have committed all the large chunks of capital for the gigapresses, robots, materials and component testing, etc., and now it's a race to volume production. No more pussy-footing around!

Of course there will be roadblocks to overcome but we are in the final race of bringing everything Tesla has learned about Cybertruck development into production. Once the big capital has been commited and engineers allocated to building the lines, delays become increasing expensive. So, Tesla is now as fully committed as they can be to starting production ASAP. Money and human resources have started burning at a high rate, Cybertruck is coming to market! Let's hope the Cybertruck team is playing their "A" game! It's a job of monstrous proportions but I think they have the dedication to make it happen without too many F-up's and hopefully no critical ones like not having appropriate tires ready to go.

This is one thing I've been interested in for a long time - what kind of magical tire is going to be able to all that Cybertruck is capable of, from 0-60 in the 3 second range, to towing/hauling 14k/3.5k lbs, to cornering like a sports car and getting 500 miles of range while not sucking too bad at off-road travel? It's a very tall order because tire contruction is far more complicated than most people understand. They are not just black rubber bladders that hold enough air to support the load! I'm guessing it will be an improved version of a tire that already exists but that has been modified to suit Tesla's specs (probably had the load capacity increased along with a grippier rubber compound and sidewalls that can better resist extreme side forces.

It's a tall order to make a tire like this that does not feel like you're riding on wooden wheels with a rubber tread glued on..

 

[CyberGus]

GT is a billion-dollar “money furnace” so delays are expensive. Tesla says CT starts production mid-2023 and I have no reason to doubt it.

 

[CyberGus]

Joe Tegtmeyer peeked inthe windows of the casting area. They are prepping for a new machine but it’s not yet installed.

 

[greggertruck]

GT is a billion-dollar “money furnace” so delays are expensive. Tesla says CT starts production mid-2023 and I have no reason to doubt it.

Apparently the furnace is cash positive now(at least Y line production is)

 

[greggertruck]

Joe Tegtmeyer peeked inthe windows of the casting area. They are prepping for a new machine but it’s not yet installed.

Little old for my cares. This video is from before I broke the news on IDRA crap arriving. But that almost merits the facts that the press is at least partially expected as of the 5th. They got that prep work finished cause they knew.

Heck, it a stretch to think IDRA finally told them what they exactly needed so they got that done.

 

[greggertruck]

I tend to agree with your analysis leaning towards Tesla going all out to bring Cybertruck to market ASAP. They have committed all the large chunks of capital for the gigapresses, robots, materials and component testing, etc., and now it's a race to volume production. No more pussy-footing around!

Of course there will be roadblocks to overcome but we are in the final race of bringing everything Tesla has learned about Cybertruck development into production. Once the big capital has been commited and engineers allocated to building the lines, delays become increasing expensive. So, Tesla is now as fully committed as they can be to starting production ASAP. Money and human resources have started burning at a high rate, Cybertruck is coming to market! Let's hope the Cybertruck team is playing their "A" game! It's a job of monstrous proportions but I think they have the dedication to make it happen without too many F-up's and hopefully no critical ones like not having appropriate tires ready to go.

This is one thing I've been interested in for a long time - what kind of magical tire is going to be able to all that Cybertruck is capable of, from 0-60 in the 3 second range, to towing/hauling 14k/3.5k lbs, to cornering like a sports car and getting 500 miles of range while not sucking too bad at off-road travel? It's a very tall order because tire contruction is far more complicated than most people understand. They are not just black rubber bladders that hold enough air to support the load! I'm guessing it will be an improved version of a tire that already exists but that has been modified to suit Tesla's specs (probably had the load capacity increased along with a grippier rubber compound and sidewalls that can better resist extreme side forces.

It's a tall order to make a tire like this that does not feel like you're riding on wooden wheels with a rubber tread glued on..

All of this reasonable, and thanks for agreeing. I like to know I’m not totally moronic in my guesses, like a November event (/ December cause the semi is then.. could be a double header)

The tires are particularly of interest. Like what have they done there?

We over simplify technology bandwagon as an mp3 player with a touchscreen or whatever. Tires that don’t pop could be considered tech. Idk. Can’t wait to see what we’re buying ha

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