More Tesla price cuts === cheaper Cybertruck (6 oct)

[slomo]

50k is less than 60k. If model Y is able to be about the same as 2019 price when considering materiel and other. Why not CT?

Much bigger vehicle with a bigger battery. CT has many more added features. Size and features its closer to the S/X than the 3/Y. And I'll point out again the second row screen. Tesla adds that feature when they are trying to justify a high price. Not cut costs to reach a low price.

The 3 and Y were designed to sell at $35K and $40K respectively if sales didn't go well. The CT was announced at a time when Tesla was less secure about EV sales than they are today.

The CT was probably selected in late 2018 and announced in 2019. Different EV world today. Tesla is a different company today too.

Ford projects the Lightning to sell at a run rate of 150K by mid 2023. The CT prices I guessed at are a better value/lower price than the Lightning. The CT is a much fancier off roader than the Lightning. It's similar offroad to Rivian but bigger.

My CT price guesses are below Rivian. Rivian still seems to have a couple of years of order backlog and a ASP in the 80s.

All this is why I don't see $50K.

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[Gurule92]

Much bigger vehicle with a bigger battery. CT has many more added features. Size and features its closer to the S/X than the 3/Y. And I'll point out again the second row screen. Tesla adds that feature when they are trying to justify a high price. Not cut costs to reach a low price.

The 3 and Y were designed to sell at $35K and $40K respectively if sales didn't go well. The CT was announced at a time when Tesla was less secure about EV sales than they are today.

The CT was probably selected in late 2018 and announced in 2019. Different EV world today. Tesla is a different company today too.

Ford projects the Lightning to sell at a run rate of 150K by mid 2023. The prices I guessed at are a better value/lower price than the Lightning. The CT is a much fancier off roader than the Lightning. It's similar offroad to Rivian but bigger.

My CT price guesses are below Rivian. Rivian still seems to have a couple of years of order backlog and a ASP in the 80s.

All this is why I don't see $50K.

I'm pretty confident that 3 and y will have second row screen on next iteration. They don't put that in to justify price, they put new features in the more expensive cars first and then roll down

The lightning and the rivian aren't even real competitors. Ford raised the price because they're bleeding money. Rivian price is high because they were always bleeding money.

Tesla doesn't price cars based on EV competition. Tesla prices cars and EV competition follow.

 

[slomo]

I'm pretty confident that 3 and y will have second row screen on next iteration. They don't put that in to justify price, they put new features in the more expensive cars first and then roll down

The lightning and the rivian aren't even real competitors. Ford raised the price because they're bleeding money. Rivian price is high because they were always bleeding money.

Tesla doesn't price cars based on EV competition. Tesla prices cars and EV competition follow.

That's.....not how the world works. It's obvious that Tesla always prices to match supply and demand. So does Rivian. So does Ford. A very basic business fact is that you don't get to price a product high because you need more money.

Many posters in this thread don't understand Tesla history, capitalism and basic economics. It's ironic because the value creation needed to buy even an entry level Cybertruck comes from capitalism. Other economics systems provide such gems as the Lada and Trabant.

 

[Gurule92]

That's.....not how the world works. It's obvious that Tesla always prices to match supply and demand. So does Rivian. So does Ford. A very basic business fact is that you don't get to price a product high because you need more money.

Many posters in this thread don't understand Tesla history, capitalism and basic economics. It's ironic because the value creation needed to buy even an entry level Cybertruck comes from capitalism. Other economics systems provide such gems as the Lada and Trabant.

So you're saying the world doesn't work where you raise prices to increase margins when you are losing too much money on a product that is selling? That's an interesting worldview.

Many posters really don't understand Tesla, the mission and the business model. Who started the price war? Did they do that because they were matching their competitors? No. They set the standard. They don't follow. Everyone else had to cut into their already tiny margins (or non existent [ford]) to keep up.

Model 3 and Y both had huge demand at launch and Tesla didn't go crazy with prices. They stuck very close to announced prices. Any alterations came later. And model 3 went through production hell but still remained close to announced.

They plan prices based on long term margins. Not what the first 40k vehicles are gonna make. Volume production.

 

[Ehninger1212]

Many posters really don't understand Tesla, the mission and the business model. Who started the price war? Did they do that because they were matching their competitors? No. They set the standard. They don't follow. Everyone else had to cut into their already tiny margins (or non existent [ford]) to keep up.

This One of the reasons Tesla is what they are today. They push and they don't care who is keeping up.

When the CT specs and prices finally drop all the article are gonna be about how much it undercuts the market, you will probably also see a lot of articles saying something like "Tesla wont even make a profit on CT" yet the reality is the margins will be insane.. just like everything else they produce.

 

[ED_SFO]

Tesla in general does factor in gross margins when they price their vehicles in order to create a buffer if something happens like supply chain issues. They're a master at forecasting these things and will react with raising prices or lowering them. That's probably the main difference between Tesla and legacy automakers that normally just raise prices year after year. If Tesla stays true to the mission, i think they will make the most affordable truck they can, pricing so they aren't losing money, but have the best features and range by far. Pricing will be for projected future cost of materials which they will prob have a buffer ( more $$ initially ) then as they ramp cost will come down. I expect to see decently priced dual motors in the upper $50k low $60k range by spring next year.

 

[Gurule92]

This One of the reasons Tesla is what they are today. They push and they don't care who is keeping up.

When the CT specs and prices finally drop all the article are gonna be about how much it undercuts the market, you will probably also see a lot of articles saying something like "Tesla wont even make a profit on CT" yet the reality is the margins will be insane.. just like everything else they produce.

I think the articles will be titled. "Tesla prices Cybertruck low due to lack of demand.. indicating bankruptcy?"

The media stays messing up

 

[Ogre]

Count to 10 and get some therapy dude.

$60k is the avg price ICE truck sold today.
You think CT will be less? Good luck. Ok, you do you.

Dude… you’ve posted about 3x in this thread what I did.

But you’ve managed to say nothing other than regurgitating fears. Think about it.

 

[slomo]

Who started the price war?

Tesla lowered prices because demand for the 3/Y faltered. Again, they price to balance demand to their manufacturing plan. Tesla did not decide to start a price war. Tesla would gladly still charge $70K for a MYP if they could meet their plan at that price.

 

[slomo]

Tesla in general does factor in gross margins when they price their vehicles in order to create a buffer if something happens like supply chain issues. They're a master at forecasting these things and will react with raising prices or lowering them. That's probably the main difference between Tesla and legacy automakers that normally just raise prices year after year. If Tesla stays true to the mission, i think they will make the most affordable truck they can, pricing so they aren't losing money, but have the best features and range by far. Pricing will be for projected future cost of materials which they will prob have a buffer ( more $$ initially ) then as they ramp cost will come down. I expect to see decently priced dual motors in the upper $50k low $60k range by spring next year.

If Tesla priced cost plus they would not have raised vehicle prices last year. If they take a modest markup on CT it will be the first time they have followed that pricing practice.

You price estimate is essentially the 2019 price plus inflation. It is reasonable they will do that price. But they don't have to price that low to sell all production for the next few years. Why do you believe they won't price higher initially and then lower the cost later if the backlog shrinks to concerning levels?

 

[Ogre]

If Tesla priced cost plus they would not have raised vehicle prices last year. If they take a modest markup on CT it will be the first time they have followed that pricing practice.

You price estimate is essentially the 2019 price plus inflation. It is reasonable they will do that price. But they don't have to price that low to sell all production for the next few years. Why do you believe they won't price higher initially and then lower the cost later if the backlog shrinks to concerning levels?

Why do you believe they will do something different from what they’ve done in the past?

Does a tiger change its stripes suddenly?

 

[Gurule92]

Tesla lowered prices because demand for the 3/Y faltered. Again, they price to balance demand to their manufacturing plan. Tesla did not decide to start a price war. Tesla would gladly still charge $70K for a MYP if they could meet their plan at that price.

Okay. Well that tells me all I need to know.

If Tesla was doing it just for demand it would've been a much smaller decrease. And what about the price cuts that this thread are about? Tesla had record sales but still lowered prices more. Demand lagging? Cmon

 

[slomo]

Why do you believe they will do something different from what they’ve done in the past?

I don't. Tesla launched the model Y in 2020 at the correct price for demand at that time. I purchased one with a five week wait. There was no wait list similar to what the CT has currently.

Demand went up a lot in 2021 and the price started to rise.

 

[Deleted member 17810]

I don't. Tesla launched the model Y in 2020 at the correct price for demand at that time. I purchased one with a five week wait. There was no wait list similar to what the CT has currently.

Demand went up a lot in 2021 and the price started to rise.

Rise in demand wasn't the only thing, and probably the least impactful thing, to happen in 2021.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

I simplified my comment to the law of supply and demand. I think their innovative manufacturing process will help bring down the price but the difficulty of ramping up 4860 battery production to meet the demand "at this point" may negate that advantage.

Tesla will absorb any short term capital cost margin erosion.

The issue is the market value not the profit margin.

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