Great time for Cybertruck PRICING PREDICTIONS

[TyPope]

It is not a price increase since there was no CT4 at announcement.

Yes. That was my point. Expecting Tesla to pop on a 23% price increase for the "top tier" CT does not make sense to me despite the fact they are adding another motor. That single motor does not cost thousands of dollars to Tesla.

Tax rebate can indeed play a role in their decision for initial release but regarding Lightning, there are no lightning equivalent to CT; No air suspension, Rear wheel steering, steel body, ..... I think comparison matters a lot more when Tesla runs out of reservations.

Comparisons definitely matter. EVERY article/review will compare Tesla's best to Ford's best.

This very well may be the case. If Tesla decided to do this under $80K and it has a fairly good range (400+), it will take a while before they run out of demand. Keep in mind R1T quad with Large pack is around $90K and dual motor with max pack more than that. No rear steering with a less established auto maker.

Tesla will under-price Rivian. I think that Rivian will not fare well once the CT comes out despite the CT's polarizing looks. Rivian customers will have to admit they are shopping for looks and not capabilities. I don't think many eco-conscious buyers will see the value in Rivian. But, I hope they make it because they have a neat little truck.

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[Diehard]

Yes. That was my point. Expecting Tesla to pop on a 23% price increase for the "top tier" CT does not make sense to me despite the fact they are adding another motor. That single motor does not cost thousands of dollars to Tesla.

Tesla will under-price Rivian. I think that Rivian will not fare well once the CT comes out despite the CT's polarizing looks. Rivian customers will have to admit they are shopping for looks and not capabilities. I don't think many eco-conscious buyers will see the value in Rivian. But, I hope they make it because they have a neat little truck.

Rear steering is added too and we are not sure what else. I have not been following the news on this too closely. I don’t know if they are doing quad, sticking with 3 motors only or both. Having both 3 motor and quad may be too much variation for Tesla. I suspect they do one or other in addition to dual.

Rivian is racing against the clock regardless of what Tesla does. If they don’t get a hang of efficient manufacturing before cash runs out, they may have to raise more cash or sell. I hope they make it too. It is always nice to see one of them on the road.

p.s. This is how your text looks like on my screen:

 

[TyPope]

There have been 92 posts here and not a single one of you has proposed this one thing. Not. A. Single. One of you...

How much will the CyberQuad be and will it be released with the Cybertruck? AND, Will it be ONLY available as an accessory to the CyberTruck?

I'm going to "hazard a guess"... Man, I hate that phrase... I'll predict a price of $10,000 for the CyberQuad based on absolutely nothing. However, I'll die on my sword defending that price. I'll quote similar Quad prices, Tesla's mantra of "under-promise, over deliver" or something. Hell, I'll make stuff up.

I'll ignore any evidence to the contrary while only citing sources that support my point of view. Also, it'll be available at launch.

I may have to do a lot of searching but I'll find something, somewhere, however obscure to make my point.

Wait, I'm going to call it a $6,900 option because, Elon.


I hope all of you have long and happy weekends! Happy Birthday, America!

 

[TyPope]

Rear steering is added too and we are not sure what else. I have not been following the news on this too closely. I don’t know if they are doing quad, sticking with 3 motors only or both. Having both 3 motor and quad may be too much variation for Tesla. I suspect they do one or other in addition to dual.

Rivian is racing against the clock regardless of what Tesla does. If they don’t get a hang of efficient manufacturing before cash runs out, they may have to raise more cash or sell. I hope they make it too. It is always nice to see one of them on the road.

They'll have a Quad motor option (because Elon Tweeted that) and a Dual motor option. They MAY have different range options with those motor options, but I suspect they'll only have one casting for the front and one casting for the rear and will either put one or two motors in each casting. I suppose they COULD put two motors in one casting and one in the other to make a tri-motor version but I don't think they will.

 

[rudedawg78]

...Elon initally suggested the Model X would start at $60k in early 2014. The base price upon release in late 2015? $132,000

Do you have a source/reference that states that Elon suggested the Model X would start at $60K? I was definitely around during that time and don't remember him stating that.

 

[cvalue13]

Do you have a source/reference that states that Elon suggested the Model X would start at $60K? I was definitely around during that time and don't remember him stating that.

I don’t think there were ever direct statements from Musk on price.

Instead there were direct statements from Musk about first year production volumes, which analysts took those figures and backed into what sort of price point would justify those production estimates. It was around $60K give-or-take, as a base model considering a blended price between whatever (at the time unknown) model options may be offered.

That said, analysts at the time suggested Musk’s production estimates suffered a “planning fallacy” and that in truth they would end up producing and selling a majority of the highest priced option, thereby reducing production estimates to a much smaller TAM

And as it turned out, they were right.

Here’s a 2015 article on the point:

“Having looked at the supply side, we turn to the demand side and examine two different models, the first surveying the worldwide market for ultra-luxury SUVs in the Model X’s price range, and the second based on the relatively scarecrow reservation yield data that we have on the Model X.

We begin with the assumption that, during 2016 at least, the lowest-priced “base” model X that will be available will have a 90kWh battery and will well for about $95,000. … Yea Tesla will likely introduce a lower-priced Model X with a smaller battery at some point, but most observers expect the company will first concentrate on selling high-priced, higher-margin Model Xs.”


And in fact, the first year plus of Model X production focused on primarily on signature deliveries, with few of the lower-priced options sold that would have justified Musk’s earlier annual production estimates.

So as is usual, discussions here talk past one-another regarding, on one hand, what model base prices were advertised at launch, vs on the other hand, what the actually available and delivered models were priced at.

Take your pick which is the relavent “base price”

 

[greggertruck]

I'll play. I love this game.

Dual motor long range 400 mile truck for about $65k in mid September. Launch model.

Shortly after, a tri motor will happen with a larger range, near 500 miles.. It's $85k.

In late 2024 Tesla will drop a dual motor standard range truck for $49k. It'll have 260 miles.

It's not all about range, motors are cool though. Range is too. But... The science behind the BMS/ 4680 and how quickly it'll charge will make it more appealing.

Do you wanna wait an hour for 320 mile competitors to charge? Or 12 minutes for 250 miles in a Cybertruck?

 

[Coolbreeze704]

I'll play. I love this game.

Dual motor long range 400 mile truck for about $65k in mid September. Launch model.

Shortly after, a tri motor will happen with a larger range, near 500 miles.. It's $85k.

In late 2024 Tesla will drop a dual motor standard range truck for $49k. It'll have 260 miles.

It's not all about range, motors are cool though. Range is too. But... The science behind the BMS/ 4680 and how quickly it'll charge will make it more appealing.

Do you wanna wait an hour for 320 mile competitors to charge? Or 12 minutes for 250 miles in a Cybertruck?

I could not agree more! I have always owned OnePlus phones. While my wife has always had Iphone. Up until recently she had anxiety about her battery all the time. She was always having to carry a charging cord.

My OnePlus 10 Pro has a 65watt fast charge. If I ever start to run low I throw it on my wireless fast charger and in 15 minutes I am golden. Heck if I throw it on for 5 minutes I am good for many hours. My charge speed makes me never worry about my phone.

Charging speed is everything along with a reasonable range. For most family travel a 350 mile range with the ability to charge from 20% to 90% in 15 minutes is soo acceptable for any long haul trip. Who doesn't need to stop every 3 to 4 hours to pee and grab a bite.

Towing is a different beast. Battery size has to get you at least 3 hours between charges and then charge speed will be critical to make sure you are not like the family in the Hummer sitting hours waiting to get to 80%. What will we need, 500 mile range to tow at close to max and get 3 hours drive time?

But @greggertruck , for me and my experience with phones, has hit the nail on the head. Charging speed baby. Even in the Twitter Space with Farley, Farley noted the answer was not cramming a massive amount battery's into a vehicle. (directed I would think at GM and Stellantis)

 

[Crissa]

Or 12 minutes for 250 miles in a Cybertruck?

The bigger battery Cybertruck is more likely to be able to do the 12-minutes 250-mile recharges, tho.

I could not agree more! I have always owned OnePlus phones. While my wife has always had Iphone. Up until recently she had anxiety about her battery all the time. She was always having to carry a charging cord.

My OnePlus 10 Pro has a 65watt fast charge. If I ever start to run low I throw it on my wireless fast charger and in 15 minutes I am golden. Heck if I throw it on for 5 minutes I am good for many hours. My charge speed makes me never worry about my phone.

...The iPhone supports Qi wireless and fast PD charging, tho?

Maybe she just uses her phone more than you do.

-Crissa

 

[Coolbreeze704]

The bigger battery Cybertruck is more likely to be able to do the 12-minutes 250-mile recharges, tho.


...The iPhone supports Qi wireless and fast PD charging, tho?

Maybe she just uses her phone more than you do.

-Crissa

65 watt is lightning speed in the phone charging world. I bet the Iphone is 18watt wireless chargingggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg

Edit. The Iphone wireless charging is even less then that.

 

[greggertruck]

65 watt is lightning speed in the phone charging world. I bet the Iphone is 18watt wireless chargingggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg

Edit. The Iphone wireless charging is even less then that.

Yea, magic charging or whatever is dog poo on iPhone. It's honestly probably bad to pump THAT much juice in, but I'm spit balling.

 

[greggertruck]

The bigger battery Cybertruck is more likely to be able to do the 12-minutes 250-mile recharges, tho.


...The iPhone supports Qi wireless and fast PD charging, tho?

Maybe she just uses her phone more than you do.

-Crissa

bigger, but not biggest. That may be even quicker.

 

[Crissa]

65 watt is lightning speed in the phone charging world. I bet the Iphone is 18watt wireless chargingggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg

Edit. The Iphone wireless charging is even less then that.

I don't know where you're getting those numbers from.

https://support.apple.com/en-asia/HT208137

If you want to go fast, just plug in. There's plenty of overhead there. And 15W isn't all that slow, for a phone.

And your OnePlus is just crazy with the charging rate, it's way more than the average Android phone.

-Crissa

 

[Coolbreeze704]

I don't know where you're getting those numbers from.

https://support.apple.com/en-asia/HT208137

If you want to go fast, just plug in. There's plenty of overhead there. And 15W isn't all that slow, for a phone.

And your OnePlus is just crazy with the charging rate, it's way more than the average Android phone.

-Crissa

In the US, the phone supports 65W charging, while other regions can charge at up to 80W. OnePlus says that this only accounts for a two-minute difference in the total time it takes to charge the phone, and realistically, 65W is plenty fast — just over 30 minutes to bring the battery from 0 to 100 percent.Oct 18, 2022

 

[Crissa]

In the US, the phone supports 65W charging, while other regions can charge at up to 80W. OnePlus says that this only accounts for a two-minute difference in the total time it takes to charge the phone, and realistically, 65W is plenty fast — just over 30 minutes to bring the battery from 0 to 100 percent.Oct 18, 2022

I was pointing out that an iPhone can charge that fast from a cable, tho.

-Crissa

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