Foundation Series Cybertruck -- Clarified

[newwave1331]

currently anticipated builds through end of 2024

Did you mean through the end of 2023?

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[cvalue13]

Did you mean through the end of 2023?

Is it still 2023?

yes, thanks for the catch - I’ve corrected in post

 

[newwave1331]

So if I adjust the production curve to reflect the rates we are seeing, we should be through the foundation series in Q2 of 2024. Real customer deliveries (non-foundation series) sometime in late April/early May. The production numbers for 2023 include the 1200 series vins that are in showrooms.

There are plenty of 4680s in storage (~10million) so that doesn't seem to be the bottleneck if Musk's statements of production ramp timeline still holds true.

 

[AlexcyberTX]

I would be more than willing to pay extra for the foundation edition. Is it by invite only ?

 

[VR Driving]

So if I adjust the production curve to reflect the rates we are seeing, we should be through the foundation series in Q2 of 2024. Real customer deliveries (non-foundation series) sometime in late April/early May. The production numbers for 2023 include the 1200 series vins that are in showrooms.

There are plenty of 4680s in storage (~10million) so that doesn't seem to be the bottleneck if Musk's statements of production ramp timeline still holds true.

Based on the current delivery estimates and production ramp-up schedule, it appears that Tesla aims to fulfill reservations with launch pricing by December 2024, as indicated by the significant increase in Cybertruck production in that year. Following this, in 2025, it is anticipated that Tesla will begin offering more affordable models of the Cybertruck, aligning with their initial promises and likely in response to market demand dynamics. The production data suggests that by maintaining a steady output of 250,000 vehicles per year starting in 2025, Tesla is preparing for broad market penetration. However, the prospect of selling all 250,000 Cybertrucks at the current premium price point seems unlikely, supporting the notion that a more economically priced version will become available to ensure continued high sales volumes and clear reservation backlogs.

 

[Deleted member 17810]

I would be more than willing to pay extra for the foundation edition. Is it by invite only ?

Do you have franz on speed dial?

Ask around your circle, someone probably knows the ups at tesla.

 

[cvalue13]

Based on the current delivery estimates and production ramp-up schedule, it appears that Tesla aims to fulfill reservations with launch pricing by December 2024,

what does “fulfill reservations” mean here?

are you assuming some proportion of (A) total pre-orders existing, (B) relevant pre-orders (eg those in US), and (C) relevant pre-order conversion rate?

otherwise, seems impossible to have any wet finger in the wind regarding how many pre-orders will convert and need to be built in the next 12 months to substantiate your statement

meanwhile, the graph above (obvious caveats applied) have Tesla completing a total of 31,000 units in all of 2024. This would roughly equal the total number of Model X and Model S units built in the first 4Qs after their production began, so it’s not far-fetched.

that said, even a doubling of that projection, at 62K built in 2024 total, would seem a low number to have assumed will be the total relevant pre-order conversions that would “fulfill reservations by Dec 2024”

The production data suggests that by maintaining a steady output of 250,000 vehicles per year starting in 2025,

point of process

Musk did not say they would produce 250K units in 2025

he said that sometime in 2025 they would reach a run-rate of 250K.

those are two very different things

However, the prospect of selling all 250,000 Cybertrucks at the current premium price point seems unlikely, supporting the notion that a more economically priced version will become available to ensure continued high sales volumes and clear reservation backlogs.

the observation that current premium pricing has market effects permits of two different and (all else equal) equally plausible conclusions

the first is what you state (though you add several assumptions)

the second is that the current pricing reflects that Tesla does not anticipate building 250K total in 2025 (as referenced above regarding run-rate)

All of which Insay with a healthy dose of “Tesla’s production ramp estimates are notoriously off - they get there, but not as soon as they stated any 2 years prior”


But, I’m hear to learn of info we’re not yet already considering and weighing for. Just not obvious to me what those are in your statements/assumptions.

 

[davelloydbrown]

well I guess if all the beautiful and important people drive a CT it will save a lot in marketing costs, even though tesla doesn't do advertisements

 

[EMoeller]

I would be more than willing to pay extra for the foundation edition. Is it by invite only ?

Read the first part of this chain - the first 1000 VIN numbers are reserved for Foundation (EM's take on Founder) vehicles. If you were in that group you got an invitation. Otherwise there rest of us must wait our turn in line...

 

[TruckDaddy]

Will the dual get 2 doggies?

It will be a 2 headed IRS agent for the $7,500 tax deduction.

 

[EMoeller]

Thank you Newave1331 and VR Driving for the chart estimates and your prospective. In today's Munro video EM seemed to back off from restating his initial annual rates of 125k and 250k for 2024 and 2025 respectively. Instead claiming he could not provide information that would be material for forward looking financial reasons (note he had previously stated that CT would NOT be material for 18-24 months).

He also noted that production would be constrained by parts (we think we know that 4680 batteries (10MM in stock) are in good supply, and that Cyberpress production is now about 60 s/casting (Munro video), most probably the unique 48v systems, which are unique only to the CT.

My taker on your charts is that initial ramp will be faster than stated by several hundred per day, but at best that would only move my #72k reservation up to early 2025 and not mid-2024 that I had hoped for.

On the bright side maybe there will be tens of thousands with lower reservations that will wait for the single, less expensive, version in 2025.

In the end I need to stop following this forum daily, as it is now clear that any information on my reservation will be many months down the road. Thanks all....

 

[cvalue13]

Cross-posting from another thread:

How do you all think the deliveries will be handled going forward from the delivery event?

few things on my mind:

Mass email to "Next 5,000" reservation holders?

or

individual emails to reservation holders when their truck is ready?

Would we pick up at the local dealer? or pick up in Texas?

Curious about the above for the people that have ordered teslas in the past and has knowledge of the process.

Need to distinguish between these 1,000 Foundation limited edition series they're currently building and selling, vs when they make it to actual "Production" (e.g., Job#1 of retail spec'd unit offered to gen pop on an arms-length basis).

FOUNDATION SERIES:

These Foundation series are essentially marketing units, where regs and corporate financials are concerned, which means Tesla can 'sell' them, but not trigger the various regulatory and corporate consequences of begining true production.

The Foundation units units will be offered only to people that Telsa 'hand selects.' The delivery event units were primarily to employees, VIPs, and conceivably some reservation holders that were, e.g., reservation #1 and have e.g., bought 2 each of every prior Tesla going back to the original roadster. In any event, to receive one of these first ~20-30 Foundation units, you're probably on extra unique sales terms, NDAs, etc., all aside from paying a premium 'special edition' price.

The next ~970ish Foundation units would similarly go to hand-selected people (e.g., Tesla isn't, and probably can't, simply offer them to the general public without going afoul of optics regarding retail sales). But here, they likely go a bit deeper into the 'special people' pool, perhaps less onerous NDA-like terms, but still the premium limited-edition pricing.

Based on what we know about current production numbers, it could take Tesla several more months to get through building these first 1,000 foundation units. They may only get through building say 150-200 of these Foundation units in 2023.


TRUE PRODUCTION

Only after all that, when they're squarely into 2024, would true 'Production' begin. Beginning production, and making the initial offer of true arms-length retail offers to the general public, triggers various corporate financial consequences on Tesla's balance sheets.

Personally, I would be equally surprised if true production begins in Q1 as if it instead begins in Q2.

In part because I think the xwitter verse of fanboi's have gone way out over their ski's in terms of hyping expectations of how close Tesla is to beginning true production. Some have been exclaiming production started back in July, and now they're saying production has started now-ish, and bellowing about how configuration will open any minute now and Tesla may deliver 1,000 retail units before year end.

It's asinine.

And to think it's asinine has nothing to do with under-estimating Tesla. This is standard pre-production start up sort of pace even for Tesla, much less very fast for any other OEM (for better and for worse). In the past, it's been as much as 4 months between a Tesla model's delivery event and start of true production - and those models didn't have 1,000 Foundation units to get through first.

This sort of pragmatism about how long it could be until first production comes not from under-estimating Tesla, but instead from appreciating just how much work Tesla has done and still has to do before it can begin pumping out the volume of retail units needed to make sense for beginning production. In other words, in my view, this pragmatism is the view that *actually* gives Tesla it's due regarding how much it is accomplishing in a short period of time.

Last thought on something touched on above: while it's possible Tesla could begin retail sales after only a slow drip of retail spec'd units are being produced, that would be unperformable all-things-considered. Generally, more preferrable would be to have a sufficient stock built up, and production to have reached some min threshold of run rate, before beginning retail sales. The reason, in fine, is that the moment Tesla begins retail sales all the historical production expenses of the Cybertruck (e.g., building the line, etc.) will hit Tesla's balance sheet as a negative number. During whatever calendar quarter that occurs, you want to be able to produce and deliver enough units to both (A) bring in revenue from unit sales that somewhat offset the balance sheet with, and (B) on that next quarterly call say "the numbers look like they do because we realized production on the balance sheet, but look how many of these we're selling already, so we'll offset and recoup that figure soon"



TAKING THE ABOVE DISTINCTION INTO ACCOUNT:

So, in 2023 (and beyond the delivery event Foundation units), some small group of folks will get to purchase a Foundation unit, but those will be hand-selected folks who are able and willing to purchase the Foundation units at the Foundation premium pricing (~$20K premium over normal retail prices). And into early 2024, the rest of these 1,000 folks will get to configure and purchase their special editions.

But as for us plebians, it is likely several months before retail deliveries begin - even if Tesla opens up configuration sooner.

It's Tesla, so it's always possible they have some countervailing reasons to begin sooner than should be expected - or trickle out only a few retail units before production has ramped to sufficient volumes.

But in terms of expectation-setting, folks should be looking to be happily surprised for earlier retail deliveries, as opposed to buying into the xwitter claptrap about retail deliveries starting a week ago.

 

[cvalue13]

Also cross-posting this excellent bit of historical context (plus the details on an example of actual ordering procedure):

Based on my experience receiving my Model 3 and of Tesla in general, my expectation is as follows:

• Tesla will produce the Foundation Series vehicles first, 1000 in total. This could take several months.
• As the Foundation Series production is coming to a close Tesla will send out a batch configuration email to early reservation holders in the Unites States. This batch will likely be somewhat small, probably 1,000 to 5,000 reservation holders.
  • Those of us invited will receive an email with a link to place an order from available configurations for the Cybertruck. This will be account locked to your account, so you will need to login with the same email as the reservation was made under.
  • The order page will look similiar to the ones for the other Tesla models, allowing you to choose from the Cybertruck trim(s) and options that are currently available to configure. This will not include future trims like RWD. Prices will be listed.
  • You will need to place a non-refundable down-payment at this time, likely in the amount of $2500.
  • You will receive a Motor Vehicle Purchase Agreement once you place your order
• You will then receive a Prepare for Delivery email that has a list of steps you need to complete for your order before delivery. This will include selecting a Delivery Location. The Delivery Location will likely be required to be a Tesla Service/Delivery Center.
• You will wait a while as Telsa moves through the production queue until they have a VIN to assign to your account.
• At this point a Tesla Sales Advisor will contact you to coordinate specific dates and at that point you will be required to figure out your financing/ect for the vehicle. If you are getting a loan you will need to provide documentation regarding the loan, ect, and do some coordination between the bank/credit union and Tesla.
• Delivery Date - Once the delivery date arrives, assuming no issues on Tesla's end (there were issues with my Model 3 delivery), you show up and get your new vehicle. You of course need to make sure you pay for it at this time, that your loan is funded, ect.

When I did this in 2018 for my Model 3, it was a bit of an aggravating experience due to my car not being at the delivery center in time and being informed last minute that it wasn't there. In 2018 the nearest delivery center to me was across the state so I was flying in to Seattle to pick it up. So that last part was full of frustration for me, but it was all worth it in the end when I picked up the car and drove it home across the state.

That is my expectation, but Tesla changes stuff sometimes, so its not guaranteed it will work this way. Everything is subject to change. Also, how fast this occurs is impossible to know with how manufacturing ramps work. For the Model 3 they did a delivery event in Summer of 2017 but volume of deliveries was very small until Spring of 2018 when they finally began clearing out major hurdles in the line. At that point they began fulfilling orders at a brisk clip.

 

[VR Driving]

According to the charts, July and August 2024 will start to see a massive ramp. It takes about 2 months from production to delivery on average, so starting Sep, Q3 2024 we should be seeing much more deliveries. But at that point, each delivery center would've delivered at least one truck already. By the end of 2024, the production number should be still under 50,000 trucks. For reference, Hyundai is building only that many Ioniq 5s right now I believe, and they are everywhere already.

2025 we will start seeing volumes similar to Model 3s, by mid 2025 I think we will start seeing inventory Cybertrucks

 

[FutureBoy]

I’ll wait for the heavily discounted series.

So the Vogon poetry series?

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