Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[Jhodgesatmb]

New VINs for 12/22:
41 AWD (#683-723)

Nice graph. I haven't been following this thread for a week or so (out of state). Could you add a weekly production rate as right now I would have to add these columns up and you have certainly automated it. Daily numbers aren't nearly as interesting as weekly numbers (or monthly numbers once we get out to a few months).

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[newwave1331]

Nice graph. I haven't been following this thread for a week or so (out of state). Could you add a weekly production rate as right now I would have to add these columns up and you have certainly automated it. Daily numbers aren't nearly as interesting as weekly numbers (or monthly numbers once we get out to a few months).

Maybe if you read the whole thread you would have seen that I will move to weekly numbers at some point. We dont even know what an activated VIN really means. We need to make a correlation of when a vin is activated and when it hits the outbound lot or delivered. Until vin 513 or higher is sighted at a delivery center, we don't know at what point of production the vehicle really is when the vin is activated.

If you are just looking at how many vin are activated each week:
From 12/11 to 12/17: ~80
From 12/18 to today: 133

We are going to need 4-6 weeks of data before being able to make a correlation to what that means for actual production.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Maybe if you read the whole thread you would have seen that I will move to weekly numbers at some point. We dont even know what an activated VIN really means. We need to make a correlation of when a vin is activated and when it hits the outbound lot or delivered. Until vin 513 or higher is sighted at a delivery center, we don't know at what point of production the vehicle really is when the vin is activated.

If you are just looking at how many vin are activated each week:
From 12/11 to 12/17: ~80
From 12/18 to today: 133

We are going to need 4-6 weeks of data before being able to make a correlation to what that means for actual production.

I was reading the thread daily until I left the state, and when I got back I jumped to the current page. My apologies.

 

[Gigahorse]

I think Jason Camissa’s review was good for what it covered. I’m most interested in the charging curve, rear seat room for a rear facing car seat, some real world range/efficiency tests (at highway speeds), ride smoothness and sound isolation. The rear view mirror or rear camera/display seems to be another issue needing more coverage.

Off-road and towing tests would be entertaining but it won’t really influence my purchase. I’d be classified in the family hauler crowd with some Home Depot trips and friend’s borrowing to move stuff.

When pricing becomes reasonable, I want to do the solar tiles and battery backup. I have a backup NG whole home generator but I’d like the peace of mind to know I can go off grid. Seeing how the whole PowerShare program works would be another topic I’d like to see covered but I’m in no rush for that. My roof was replaced in 2021 when I got hit by a tornado.

Yea it was not bad, seems like a lot of the reviewers so far are shying away from certain areas that could potentially look bad. Range and charge speed for instance. Only one reviewer has mentioned range and it was a real range of 280 but was not specific. True range and charge speeds are pretty big for most buyers and so far all the reviewers have shyed away from it, due to maybe limited time with the truck or fear of not getting another new tesla to try next time.

 

[CHC]

I have a theory that if you were in the first round of emails to configure, you should be getting one of the first 1000 production trucks.

At the time they were sent out, a Tesla employee claimed that they were still capped at 1000 Foundation examples. I’m sure as soon as they saw the high conversion rate and customer willingness to pay the extra 20k, they then decided to expand the Foundation run with subsequent rounds of invitations.

 

[newwave1331]

You could just click “Watch” at the top of the thread to get notified.

There hasn’t been any more activity since 12/22. Between the holiday and end of the year PTO, it could be slow for the next week.

If anyone has the last 3 of a vin being delivered to a service center, please tag or DM me. I have one so far but would like to get a couple more before I share a stat of 1 data point.

 

[scottf200]

You could just click “Watch” at the top of the thread to get notified.

@Magneto , optionally you could choose the option to get an email:

 

[mrbulk]

One thought about a slightly delayed delivery - if interest rates go down (and they most likely will as the Fed just recently indicated implementing rate cuts 3 times this coming year) then we might get better rates when shopping for a loan around mid-2024 or later...or maybe I am just saying that to soothe the wait since I took the Cyberbeast.

 

[cvalue13]

Been quiet huh, @newwave1331

thought it would be interesting to put these two charts side-by-side

Invitation Rollout by Date and State, for those who may be interested.

New VINs for 12/22:
41 AWD (#683-723)

So to date this website has nearly 600 Foundation orders logged, which is of course only a sample of orders that exist.

Meanwhile to date Tesla has registered only ~350 VINs, which means to date they’ve built fewer than 350 Foundation trucks.

None of that is particularly surprising, and it’s indicative of why the Foundation invitation configurations have been indicating that orders made to date won’t be delivered until months from now.

*Last Edited 12/29/2023 6:30pm MST
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Particularly with over 200 Cyberbeast orders logged on this site only, but somewhere fewer than 25 total Cyberbeast built to date (only 26 VINs registered), ~half of which were already delivered in connection with the Nov 30 delivery event - that puts Tesla aspiring to build only ~13 additional Beasts within a ~6-8 week period, or about 2-1.5 per week build rate.

at that beast build rate, to satisfy only the 200 orders logged on this site it will take 100 weeks to 133 weeks to build and satisfy only this forum’s logged orders.

obviously Tesla’s intended Beast build rate is higher than 2-1.5/wk, as they’ve signaled in invites ‘late 2024’ delivery long dates for what is surely many more than 200 total Beast orders (those logged here and the others not logged).

Still, just these rough magnitudes of orders vs registered VINs (and so implied builds) portray just how early in the ramp Tesla is, and how choppy things still are.

 

[newwave1331]

Been quiet huh, @newwave1331

I believe the last day for a build to be started was 12/22 when we had the 41 units. They might have had some people on to finish up some lose ends on 12/23 and to get a few on transports.

I have over 50,000 scans since 12/22 and no new units. Humor is they will have the line back up on Tuesday 1/2.

Still, just these rough magnitudes of orders vs registered VINs (and so implied builds) portray just how early in the ramp Tesla is, and how choppy things still are.

Its hard to know for sure but I estimate they could possibly deliver up to 221 units by end of day tomorrow (Q4 totals) based on what was active by 12/14. That's the best case and not far from the production guesses we did a month or two ago of 235 by the end of the year.

There has been one unit that was active between 12/11-12/14 then delivered to Mesa on 12/24. That was the fastest unit to a service center so far (to the best of my knowledge). We are seeing earlier builds hit showrooms in Portland (469) and Austin (471) after the one in Mesa. I chalk this up to the choppy run so far. The one lot of trucks had missing upper trim pieces so we know that's at least one wrench in the line. I'm sure there are more holdups but thats the only one I have physically seen.

 

[cvalue13]

They might have had some people on to finish up some lose ends on 12/23 and to get a few on transports.

there have been a lot of people there, doing a lot

at this point, once a unit poops out the far end of the line, there’s still a good amount of work to be done before it’s both finished then also ready for any transport

which is to say, I think that the numbers coming off the line have come to a crawl in the dates you mention, but that plenty of building to completion has been going on

but yeah, it means we have a great handle on the max number they could have built on the line in 2023 (235) - but will likely never know how many of those actually got completed before EoY

 

[Bkb13]

I have firm dates starting at 513+. That had an activation date of 12/11 (with a negative recorded the day before).

552 was delivered on the 28th.

 

[newwave1331]

552 was delivered on the 28th.

Active 12/11, delivered to customer 12/28. So delivery within 17 days of activation.

 

[cvalue13]

Active 12/11, delivered to customer 12/28. So delivery within 17 days of activation.

something odd about this

can’t put finger on it

As a sample, when did you first capture 505?

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