📊 Cybertruck SUBMITTED ORDERS Tracking List & Stats [Add Yours!]

[CyberJerry]

I asked for a specific VIN number. Tesla has said they are working on my request. Might delay my delivery, but they said they would work on it.
It's not 420 however. Yet low enough to be in the first group. Paying cash. However would not move my area of delivery.

How many end digits were in your request? Like 001234 or 00666

Another great data point. So it was about 90,000 reservations placed in the first 12 hours (11274 - 11283), about 50,000 in the following 12 hours (11283-11288), and about 30,000 in the following 18 hours or so (11288 - 11291).

Would be great to know how many days after the event they tipped over to 113xxx. Granted anything outside of that first day or two you now have a significant proportion of other models (3/Y/S/X) in the mix

My second CT reservation was made the night of 11/26 and the number is RN11304

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[MarkM913]

How many end digits were in your request? Like 001234 or 00666

Good question...
Was it a 2,3, 4 digit or even higher request?

 

[Fleetwood75]

How many end digits were in your request? Like 001234 or 00666

My second CT reservation was made the night of 11/26 and the number is RN11304

Cool, so about 140,000 reservations in the first 24 hours and another 160,000 reservations in the four days that followed. At that time Tesla was building about 1,150 3/Y/S/X per day, so in that five day period subtract around 6,000 non-Cybertruck reservations. We're looking at likely over 300,000 Cybertruck reservations from the first week. If 25% of those early reservations get converted into 2024 orders then that eats up the 80,000 units that are rumored to be built in 2024. In other words, if your RN starts with 113 it's not looking good this year.

 

[MarkM913]

Looks like another RN12... reservation from December 2023 got an invite!

909zxcvbNm??

 

[CyberJerry]

Cool, so about 140,000 reservations in the first 24 hours and another 160,000 reservations in the four days that followed. At that time Tesla was building about 1,150 3/Y/S/X per day, so in that five day period subtract around 6,000 non-Cybertruck reservations. We're looking at likely over 300,000 Cybertruck reservations from the first week. If 25% of those early reservations get converted into 2024 orders then that eats up the 80,000 units that are rumored to be built in 2024. In other words, if your RN starts with 113 it's not looking good this year.

My feeling is less than 10% of early reservations will convert to a Foundation Series, based on the large premium. I think most people will wait for the regular production models. I could be wrong ?‍

 

[CyberJerry]

Cool, so about 140,000 reservations in the first 24 hours and another 160,000 reservations in the four days that followed. At that time Tesla was building about 1,150 3/Y/S/X per day, so in that five day period subtract around 6,000 non-Cybertruck reservations. We're looking at likely over 300,000 Cybertruck reservations from the first week. If 25% of those early reservations get converted into 2024 orders then that eats up the 80,000 units that are rumored to be built in 2024. In other words, if your RN starts with 113 it's not looking good this year.

Another possible variable is international preorders. It’s possible that half of all Cybertruck preorders were from other countries, and those might have been skipped over (except for Canada) for the Foundation Series. Or were foreigners forbidden from placing preorders? Again, just a thought, could be wrong ?‍

 

[Fleetwood75]

My feeling is less than 10% of early reservations will convert to a Foundation Series, based on the large premium. I think most people will wait for the regular production models. I could be wrong ?‍

Hypothetically let's say that they were going to offer the Foundation Series to the first 300,000 reservations (in other words the first 5 days worth of reservations, all of the RN112's). If 5% of those reservations accept an FS order that accounts for 15,000 FS units, a hypothetical "limited" number of them. Then lets say they go back and offer regular non-FS to those remaining 285,000 RN112 reservations. If you get a take-rate of 20% then that's 57,000 units. That's 72,000 units so not too far below a projected 80,000 units in the first year.

Put another way, if 25% of reservations in the RN112 series order either a FS or a non-FS (AWD or Beast) then that's pretty much your entire 2024 production. The other 75% of reservations would be any of the following:

• Multiple RN's per person never intended to be fulfilled (person reserves both dual and tri back in 2019)
• International reservations that will never get fulfilled
• Single-motor reservations who will wait
• People who changed their mind and don't want a Cybertruck or don't want one at these prices
• People who straight-up forgot they placed a reservation
• People who placed a reservation but died in the past 4 years (remember that big pandemic that happened in the interim?)

Is it fair to say that 75% of early reservations will fall into one of the above categories and the other 25% will follow through on a FS or non-FS?

 

[DRKTruck]

I just added my order!

 

[Outdoors]

Interesting move

have you perused the VIN tracking thread to see if your requested VIN number has already been registered?

if instead it hasn’t, I might be able to provide some additional info on the likelihood of getting a VIN that to date has not been registered

there are reasons they’ve skipped prior numbers

My request was in the 0000 four digit range. So we will see.

 

[ebytez]

Another great data point. So it was about 90,000 reservations placed in the first 12 hours (11274 - 11283), about 50,000 in the following 12 hours (11283-11288), and about 30,000 in the following 18 hours or so (11288 - 11291).

Would be great to know how many days after the event they tipped over to 113xxx. Granted anything outside of that first day or two you now have a significant proportion of other models (3/Y/S/X) in the mix

Not sure your numbers are correct here. I reserved mine the next day, 11/22 around 2pm Pacific and I was 11280XXX. So they were giving out 11280 after 12 hours.

You can get some good data points from the original reservation tracker sheet:

Reservation tracker

 

[cvalue13]

My request was in the 0000 four digit range. So we will see.

sorry, I’m not following what “in the 0000 four digit range” means?

but in any event, as an example, “1200-1220” are already taken and built (these are the showroom units), despite the other VINs still being well south of the 1200 in terms of numbers in series

anywho, hope they help you out

 

[Cyberbeast]

Just added my order in

 

[bang21]

For those who have confirmed and paid the $1,000 in the last day or so, what are they saying for the estimated delivery for the AWD version? Early orders, including mine, said Jan-March 24. I’m curious if they have bumped that out?

 

[ebytez]

For those who have confirmed and paid the $1,000 in the last day or so, what are they saying for the estimated delivery for the AWD version? Early orders, including mine, said Jan-March 24. I’m curious if they have bumped that out?

I just placed my order, yesterday, for the tri-motor for the cyberbeast -- it said mid to late 2024. It was earlier in 2024 for the AWD dual motor, I believe it still stated Jan-March.

 

[bang21]

It’s wild to read all the speculation about the take rate and production rate. How can a month’s worth of orders not moved the target delivery date out by at least another month to quarter?

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