Some 2024 Ramp Calculations Per Q3 info

[SanJoseNinjya]

for my part, the curiosity was pretty simple:

Musks ‘125K run rate in 2024, and 250k in 2025’ comments’ give some rough guidance about how many CTs might actually get produced in 2024.

We could get a rough lower and upper bounds of possibility total number that may be built in 2024, as well as the rate at which they they may be delivered through 2024.

For a person that’s say, 100k in the reservation que, then, you can get upper/lower bounds of expectations.

Depending on ramp, it could be Tesla doesn’t build unit 100K at all in 2024 (and still hit the 125K run rate), or early in 2024 (if they hit it quickly).

I dunno

Some people have Wordle, I have puzzles like this. ?‍?

125K in 2024 is completely a joke, 125K run rate in 2024 is not realistic, 125K run rate in the 2025 is only possible. I think they can build 40K in 2024 considering current VIN creation( still less than 1000/month!) and last 2months slow "ramping" so I decided to take FS, otherwise another 12-18months waiting. If 125K is at near future, its $12.5B, $TSLA should hold $200

Sponsored

 

[cvalue13]

125K in 2024 is completely a joke, 125K run rate in 2024 is not realistic, 125K run rate in the 2025 is only possible. I think they can build 40K in 2024 considering current VIN creation( still less than 1000/month!) and last 2months slow "ramping" so I decided to take FS, otherwise another 12-18months waiting. If 125K is at near future, its $12.5B, $TSLA should hold $200

well, for my part, I’ve only been interested in deciphering what Tesla has said, not whether I believe it

even getting agreement on what Tesla has said is chore enough



but on that point, I don’t think** Tesla has ever said they would reach a 125K run rate in 2024. That’s other people putting words in Tesla’s mouth.

The Q3/Q4 noted an installed line capacity of >125K, but that says noting of their expected top run rate in 2024.

Musk has said a run rate of 250K sometime in 2025, maybe towards early/middle of 2025, maybe if demand was there, maybe if ramp isn’t too hard, etc., etc., caveat caveat…



**I still haven’t caught up entirely on the most recent investor call

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

well, for my part, I’ve only been interested in deciphering what Tesla has said, not whether I believe it

even getting agreement on what Tesla has said is chore enough



but on that point, I don’t think** Tesla has ever said they would reach a 125K run rate in 2024. That’s other people putting words in Tesla’s mouth.

The Q3/Q4 noted an installed line capacity of >125K, but that says noting of their expected top run rate in 2024.

Musk has said a run rate of 250K sometime in 2025, maybe towards early/middle of 2025, maybe if demand was there, maybe if ramp isn’t too hard, etc., etc., caveat caveat…



**I still haven’t caught up entirely on the most recent investor call

You are right. They noted that the initial installed capacity would be 125K per year and that was for Texas regulators and no one else (really). Best guesses for 2024 are on the order of 70K. That assumes a ramp rate that starts at 250/week and doubles about every other month (250, 500, 1000, 2000, 4000). 250/week is 1,000/month and that is where we are now. So 2K + 8K + 16K + 32K = 58K. That is low because it takes the lower value and doubles it. If we average instead it is 3K + 12K + 24K + 48K = 87K. The average of those values is 72.5K.

That number of vehicles at a guessed conversion rate of 20% (due to all the factors cited), and assuming one per customer for the first year (total conjecture), would get us out to RN11304XXX. Given that we were at RN11285XXX on 1/23 the conversion rate might be much lower than 20% right now.

All of this is invented and not based on much fact but a 2024 upper bound around 70K at least makes sense wrt where we are now and what Elon has said in the past (and how Tesla has performed). I would not expect more than that many in 2024.

 

[cvalue13]

All of this is invented and not based on much fact but a 2024 upper bound around 70K at least makes sense wrt where we are now and what Elon has said in the past (and how Tesla has performed). I would not expect more than that many in 2024.

I find 70K to optimistic (based on past ramps overlayed with present facts about CT specifically)

but I take this task as horseshoes and hand grenades, unlike eg $TSLA investors who are looking for a narrower band of certainty in order to make investment decisions

from my looser than that prerogative:

I would be medium-degree surprised, equally at either a total of 20K or 70K

I’ll be far less surprised by any number in-between


Aside from your inherent optimism, another factor perhaps not embedded in your rough projections: Ramps are choppy

don’t confuse the resulting average directionality of rate with the resulting sum total of units produced

Eg we can see a week or two at a pace equal to 1000/mo, punctuated with a week or two of far less here and there. The trend graph looks the same, but the resulting total of units different.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I find 70K to optimistic (based on past ramps overlayed with present facts about CT specifically)

but I take this task as horseshoes and hand grenades, unlike eg $TSLA investors who are looking for a narrower band of certainty in order to make investment decisions

from my looser than that prerogative:

I would be medium-degree surprised, equally at either a total of 20K or 70K

I’ll be far less surprised by any number in-between


Aside from your inherent optimism, another factor perhaps not embedded in your rough projections: Ramps are choppy

don’t confuse the resulting average directionality of rate with the resulting sum total of units produced

Eg we can see a week or two at a pace equal to 1000/mo, punctuated with a week or two of far less here and there. The trend graph looks the same, but the resulting total of units different.

Yes, my ‘optimism’ (really what you call “hoping”) is fueled by my desire to get an order in a filled this year as much as by pseudo facts. I have seen no new invitations on the orders page since 1/23 and that’s depressing because last week got us 1184 and 1185. My guess was that conversions to FS would drop rapidly the further we got away from the unveiling, but maybe that isn’t true…

Sponsored