Production Rate Seems Insanely Slow?

[ideaXfactory]

If they wait till year end 2025 for FSD for Cybertruck folks will be coming at Elon with pitchforks... Or was that an old B&W movie I watched...

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[Gigahorse]

If they wait till year end 2025 for FSD for Cybertruck folks will be coming at Elon with pitchforks... Or was that an old B&W movie I watched...

I think FSD will be released for the CT any day now, with the product, even V12 being unfinished the inability to have the CT stay in a lane after people paid the premium for it is pretty wild. Rear steering and SBW changes things a little but I can't imagine it not being released along with diff locker before March 1.

 

[ideaXfactory]

Gigahorse - hope so. I didn't agree with the previous assessment of AI and what it needs (in terms of time) to be used to enable FSD on the Cybertruck. - In terms of diff locker, what they are doing with the off-road software is far harder, so seems that should be a selection option soon. It's just that software wise, the selection would possibly negate other selections such as sand mode, etc.

 

[TXCYBRTK]

12/11 order socal Irvine with no vin. So yeah. pretty slow

Same. 12/11 order, TX. No Vin.

 

[agordon117]

Forget FSD, give us autopilot. You can take a little longer with FSD but not having autopilot is terrible. I remember when the vision rollout happened, and it only worked up to like 70mph (maybe it was 75, I'd have to check). The vision cars had nothing for a bit, then 75mph top speed, then 80, then 85... It took a long time to reach parity with radar vehicles which were at 90mph max.

It only annoyed me one or two times but I'm not in a place with a 75 or 80mph speed limit so exceeding 80mph is rare (and I only was impacted after the rollout of fsd beta, and before the vision speed limit increased to 85mph). But the overall point is, some of these rollouts have been very slow. I'm hoping it's not like that with cybertruck.

Unfortunately it's one of those things that we won't know until it happens. They won't give us a roadmap with estimates, so we just can't assume anything is coming in any specific timeline.

 

[HaulingAss]

Gigahorse - hope so. I didn't agree with the previous assessment of AI and what it needs (in terms of time) to be used to enable FSD on the Cybertruck. - In terms of diff locker, what they are doing with the off-road software is far harder, so seems that should be a selection option soon. It's just that software wise, the selection would possibly negate other selections such as sand mode, etc.

My gut feeling is that the off-road modes the Cybertruck came with are just an early conceptual beta version that have been tuned so that they basically work safely and without serious bugs. They couldn't start the real development/tuning of it until the hardware was locked down (just recently). Remember, Tesla is where they are today because they try to be efficient. No other automaker could have released such a revolutionary vehicle as the Cybertruck, with so much new technology and manufacturing techniques embodied, without a 10-15 year development/manufacturing/materials science program costing perhaps 5-20 times what Tesla spent. In other words, only Tesla can make a truck this revolutionary, with so much new technology required for manufacture.

I think the off-road software development is taking precedence over developing FSD for Cybertruck and that great things are coming that no one is expecting. This is how it always works with new models at Tesla. I was blown away with how Tesla released Track Mode for my Model 3 Performance almost a year after purchase. The new controls and sliders just showed up on the screen one day at no charge. And they were mind-blowing. Granted, they are mostly only truly useful on a track, but the fact that they were there was amazing. Adjusting power delivery from the front to the back? Check? De-tuning the traction and stability controls from 100%-0%? Check!

When the lockers become activated, there might not be just a simple on-off control, it might have the ability to select an automatic mode that locks and unlocks the differential as needed when conditions are appropriate. Tesla will figure out things they can do with a mechanical locker than traditional ICE trucks with bulky engines and gearboxes cannot. And I think there will be a revamping of the Off-Road drive modes that might be released concurrently with the locking differential. Right now all they have are pre-sets.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the "phase II" development of Off-Road modes comes out in a year or two, perhaps they develop a system that can "learn" and graduate seamlessly between modes (no longer pre-sets but sliding scales depending upon the feedback it's getting, maybe even camera data). This is the kind of thing that takes longer to develop and works best if the development is not rushed.

Oh, and Tesla doesn't do stuff like this for "eye-candy", or to make gullible people think it's better, they do it if it actually makes the vehicle better in the real world. I think these developments are likely to come with little to no advance warning. Maybe in several months, whenever Elon sees that it's real, that it's actually a cool thing that improves the vehicles, he will tweet something cryptic about some nice updates coming. And then three or five more months before it rolls out.

 

[agordon117]

And then three or five more months before it rolls out.

"Two weeks"

 

[ideaXfactory]

When the lockers become activated, there might not be just a simple on-off control, it might have the ability to select an automatic mode that locks and unlocks the differential as needed when conditions are appropriate. Tesla will figure out things they can do with a mechanical locker than traditional ICE trucks with bulky engines and gearboxes cannot. And I think there will be a revamping of the Off-Road drive modes that might be released concurrently with the locking differential. Right now all they have are pre-sets.

Could be... So I'm in the camp that would like to be able to lock rear and front wheels by themselves separately and then also all wheels together. So basically that is three additional modes to the basic AWD that could be switches on the screen. Oh and a fourth would be to enable 10 degrees rear wheel turn with locked diff for off-road.

 

[cgladue]

could be just Tesla piling them up if delivery is not made daily. I still don't believe we're over 15 trucks per day since they only delivered so few.

just remember the people who come on here and post an order is tiny, and of those a small portion actually post they took delivery .. so what you are seeing is a fraction of a fraction of the whole. it is no way only 15 a day, and there has been many hundreds delivered overall.

 

[jerhenderson]

They might have meant it when they said it, but the folks at Tesla have no problem changing their minds. I wouldn't bet a dollar on that number.

No one at Tesla said that number. No one.

 

[theholyrice]

just remember the people who come on here and post an order is tiny, and of those a small portion actually post they took delivery .. so what you are seeing is a fraction of a fraction of the whole. it is no way only 15 a day, and there has been many hundreds delivered overall.

It's been abt 80 days since the delivery event, even at avg 15 / day that should be 1200 trucks delivered. If you think there are only hundreds of them delivered, that means the average has been even lower.

And it doesn't really matter what percent of people who ordered came here to register their orders, cause they are just finishing up with ordered made on or prior to Dec 9th. That's the first 200 orders registered on this site. We got over 1200 registered orders now, so if Tesla's taking 2.5 months to delivered the first 1/6, I guess I won't get mine until August or later (even if they double their speed every 3 months), and that's a big let down for paying $20k and still have to wait almost another yr.

 

[Spacenoddle]

It's been abt 80 days since the delivery event, even at avg 15 / day that should be 1200 trucks delivered. If you think there are only hundreds of them delivered, that means the average has been even lower.

And it doesn't really matter what percent of people who ordered came here to register their orders, cause they are just finishing up with ordered made on or prior to Dec 9th. That's the first 200 orders registered on this site. We got over 1200 registered orders now, so if Tesla's taking 2.5 months to delivered the first 1/6, I guess I won't get mine until August or later (even if they double their speed every 3 months), and that's a big let down for paying $20k and still have to wait almost another yr.

If Tesla cannot rampup enough in 6 month, i really start to believe cybertruck could be really the one to dig their own grave.

 

[Haopec]

that would be fantastic. I've watched way too many CT videos. At this point all I want to see is one parked in my garage.

Well... I have Vin 1500.... and there are a TON of folks that were allowed to orde an FS after me l.. I'm guessing 10 to 20k FS before they run out of willing FS participants.

 

[Known-Background]

that would be fantastic. I've watched way too many CT videos. At this point all I want to see is one parked in my garage.

Depends on your state. I think the only states that are going to “feel” the production boosts will be TX/CA/FL I don’t even know why they sent the order offers to other states at this point.

 

[cgladue]

It's been abt 80 days since the delivery event, even at avg 15 / day that should be 1200 trucks delivered. If you think there are only hundreds of them delivered, that means the average has been even lower.

And it doesn't really matter what percent of people who ordered came here to register their orders, cause they are just finishing up with ordered made on or prior to Dec 9th. That's the first 200 orders registered on this site. We got over 1200 registered orders now, so if Tesla's taking 2.5 months to delivered the first 1/6, I guess I won't get mine until August or later (even if they double their speed every 3 months), and that's a big let down for paying $20k and still have to wait almost another yr.

They didn't start delivering cars the night of the delivery event, I believe customer cars didn't get delivered till the beginning or middle of January, so it isn't really 80 days since. Plus they work 1 shift 6 days a week, 1 day off. Let's say customer deliveries started 1/1/24 that's only 42 days of production, and we all know it is sometimes necessary to stop the production line at times for various reasons, so likely fewer days of production then that. Things have looked noticeably increased this week, let's hope they are starting ti increase the weekly output and will continue to do so. They said January to March when you placed your order, you shouldn't underestimate things till April rolls around then its fair game.

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