Most Accurate Estimate of Current FS Orders

[Coltpete]

Without the VIN tracker this is much more difficult to calculate but I wanted to throw out my best estimate as to current FS orders. Others please feel free to add your feedback to get a better snapshot of where we stand.

We have 92 CTs delivered here on the forum and 1237ish orders placed.

The highest VIN I've seen is in the 1600s so let's call it 1675 at this point. We need to remove from the VIN total all reserved numbers, skipped numbers, and non customer VINs. This should be roughly 275 based on what I previously ballparked with the VIN tracker (MC, RC, showroom, etc.).

So it looks like this forum should account for around 6.5% of total orders to date with 92 delivered out of 1400 total delivered. That passes my gut check and seems in line with a few other estimates I've seen. We are probably skewed a little higher than the general population here because so many of us on the forum are early reservation holders given the very high interest level we have in the CT.

If we're around 6.5% of the total and we've been invited to place 1237 orders that brings the total estimate of Foundation orders to approximately 19,000. I welcome feedback from others but it wouldn't shock me for that number to be pretty accurate. Seems like it will be near impossible for Tesla to deliver that many CTs by the end of Q2 even if we remove the many orders that are for the Cyberbeast.

Fingers crossed we get more VIN info soon!

Updated thanks to @rodx. VIN 221X for @greggertruck was produced on 2/8/24 and it seems like current production rate is around 60 per day. This would skew things much lower for our forum number. If we're going off that our forum accounts for slightly less than 5% of total orders. Bringing current FS CT orders to around 26,000. That seems high to me. Will update as more data comes in.

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[rodx]

It seems that VINs aren’t 100% in order anymore. Apparently @greggertruck has a VIN in the 2100-2200ish despite someone else in CA getting a VIN in the 1600’s the same day. It’s really hard to say how many exactly they’ve produced if they are allocating someone a VIN in the early 2000’s while someone else gets 1600’s the same day.

 

[mark555055c]

My gut tells me that there are maybe 8000ish FS orders currently. It just feels right to me.

I do think starting next week there will be A LOT of VINs getting assigned to the community. We're probably going to need a "VIN assigned" mega thread very soon. We shall see.

 

[Coltpete]

My gut tells me that there are maybe 8000ish FS orders currently. It just feels right to me.

I do think starting next week there will be A LOT of VINs getting assigned to the community. We're probably going to need a "VIN assigned" mega thread very soon. We shall see.

Are you basing that off any data? I don't see anything supporting that this forum is over 1/8 of total orders.

I do think there has been a nice jump in production. Joe T over on X saw 80 trucks on the lot the other day. This was compared to the 30-50 he was seeing a few weeks ago. We'll see soon enough.

 

[Coltpete]

It seems that VINs aren’t 100% in order anymore. Apparently @greggertruck has a VIN in the 2100-2200ish despite someone else in CA getting a VIN in the 1600’s the same day. It’s really hard to say how many exactly they’ve produced if they are allocating someone a VIN in the early 2000’s while someone else gets 1600’s the same day.

That's the first I've heard of a VIN that high. That doesn't seem in line with any other VIN data I've seen but of course anything is possible.

Update - boy was I wrong. That VIN was produced on 2/8/24 so we're likely well past that now.

 

[mark555055c]

Are you basing that off any data? I don't see anything supporting that this forum is over 1/8 of total orders.

I do think there has been a nice jump in production. Joe T over on X saw 80 trucks on the lot the other day. This was compared to the 30-50 he was seeing a few weeks ago. We'll see soon enough.

No real data, just a feeling based on the number of orders here and Tesla's est delivery dates for new orders.

 

[Dazajj]

I find it hard to believe that only 5-6% of early CT adopters are on this site… that number seems wayyy low.
don’t the VINs account for every single CT built, to include all of the ones tested? If so, that would throw off the percentage..

 

[seadsmoney]

My calculations show 1 in 13 orders make it to this forum. FS seem to be capped around 15k.

 

[WormtownKris]

I would caution against pulling a ratio off the earliest deliveries. I feel the order capture rate on this site is higher. I feel early deliveries are skewed away from this Forum. Lots of employees, VIPs, influenza and other special folks who don’t come here to obsess on Cybertrucks like we do got very early CTs. That skew will change as production progresses.
So I think the second thousand deliveries will slant much more toward this Forum, as the commons get our vehicles.
This would then correlate to a higher capture rate on our forum and a lower amount of total FS orders.

 

[Ward L]

I agree with your estimate. New vin inOregon today, 1951, Ordered on 12/16. I’ve done simular calcs and came up with 20,000 orders. Tesla will have to make 55/day to fill 20,000 in 2024.

 

[Cybertruck 1974]

its a good guess. I think there are more like 1 million FS orders or more. I think they are asking everyone and still are. My invite is still open on second vehicle to order FS. I check that one daily as well

 

[cgladue]

Without the VIN tracker this is much more difficult to calculate but I wanted to throw out my best estimate as to current FS orders. Others please feel free to add your feedback to get a better snapshot of where we stand.

We have 92 CTs delivered here on the forum and 1237ish orders placed.

The highest VIN I've seen is in the 1600s so let's call it 1675 at this point. We need to remove from the VIN total all reserved numbers, skipped numbers, and non customer VINs. This should be roughly 275 based on what I previously ballparked with the VIN tracker (MC, RC, showroom, etc.).

So it looks like this forum should account for around 6.5% of total orders to date with 92 delivered out of 1400 total delivered. That passes my gut check and seems in line with a few other estimates I've seen. We are probably skewed a little higher than the general population here because so many of us on the forum are early reservation holders given the very high interest level we have in the CT.

If we're around 6.5% of the total and we've been invited to place 1237 orders that brings the total estimate of Foundation orders to approximately 19,000. I welcome feedback from others but it wouldn't shock me for that number to be pretty accurate. Seems like it will be near impossible for Tesla to deliver that many CTs by the end of Q2 even if we remove the many orders that are for the Cyberbeast.

Fingers crossed we get more VIN info soon!

Updated thanks to @rodx. VIN 221X for @greggertruck was produced on 2/8/24 and it seems like current production rate is around 60 per day. This would skew things much lower for our forum number. If we're going off that our forum accounts for slightly less than 5% of total orders. Bringing current FS CT orders to around 26,000. That seems high to me. Will update as more data comes in.

As of today there are actually around 118 total delivered from this forum alone (not every delivery posts on the delivered cars sheet, as well as not every order posts on the order delivery sheet either, but i have written some processes to review all posts by all users for mentions of delivery and/or order/vin and have maintained a separate more accurate list, to be published soon.

 

[Wildnine]

That's the first I've heard of a VIN that high. That doesn't seem in line with any other VIN data I've seen but of course anything is possible.

Update - boy was I wrong. That VIN was produced on 2/8/24 so we're likely well past that now.

I got my vin last week and it was 22xx, meant to arrive in LA on 25th…

 

[Wolfgram]

Anecdotally: At Tesla in S Texas yesterday. VINs for 3 Cybertrucks on the lot ranged from 1650 to 1983. The small store here had delivered about 10 Cybertrucks so far, plus 4 on site waiting to deliver to new owners.

 

[Gigahorse]

I agree with your estimate. New vin inOregon today, 1951, Ordered on 12/16. I’ve done simular calcs and came up with 20,000 orders. Tesla will have to make 55/day to fill 20,000 in 2024.

While that might not be the 100% correct answer I don't know of any credible info that would disprove it. I think somewhere between 20-25k FS orders taking all of 2024 to fill much like Elon said on the call.

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