Production Rate Seems Insanely Slow?

[cgladue]

Depends on your state. I think the only states that are going to “feel” the production boosts will be TX/CA/FL I don’t even know why they sent the order offers to other states at this point.

They quote 90 days out from the dates people configure, so I guess they are projecting being able to deliver those orders based on projected output by that time. they need orders to be ahead of production so they can do logistic stuff like schedule train time, secure vehicle transport, know where to train the next Servicecenter etc

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[Wraven]

It's been abt 80 days since the delivery event, even at avg 15 / day that should be 1200 trucks delivered. If you think there are only hundreds of them delivered, that means the average has been even lower.

And it doesn't really matter what percent of people who ordered came here to register their orders, cause they are just finishing up with ordered made on or prior to Dec 9th. That's the first 200 orders registered on this site. We got over 1200 registered orders now, so if Tesla's taking 2.5 months to delivered the first 1/6, I guess I won't get mine until August or later (even if they double their speed every 3 months), and that's a big let down for paying $20k and still have to wait almost another yr.

Again (posted all over this website) why do you think reservations are served sequentially when every Tesla product launch including this one proves there is no evidence to come to that conclusion?

12/8 reservations like myself have seen plenty of later reservations get delivered before us. There are many other known and unknown variables in the mix. (Known such as what state you live in)

This isn’t exclusively a sequential delivery pattern based on your RN or FS reservation date.

 

[Gigahorse]

Gigahorse - hope so. I didn't agree with the previous assessment of AI and what it needs (in terms of time) to be used to enable FSD on the Cybertruck. - In terms of diff locker, what they are doing with the off-road software is far harder, so seems that should be a selection option soon. It's just that software wise, the selection would possibly negate other selections such as sand mode, etc.

I agree with that for the most part, certainly some challenges but nothing that shouldn't see FSD rolled out in CTs very soon.

 

[Woodrick]

Technically there were 'regular' customers on delivery day.

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-Crissa

Is that pertinent to the discussion?

 

[Spacenoddle]

Again (posted all over this website) why do you think reservations are served sequentially when every Tesla product launch including this one proves there is no evidence to come to that conclusion?

12/8 reservations like myself have seen plenty of later reservations get delivered before us. There are many other known and unknown variables in the mix. (Known such as what state you live in)

This isn’t exclusively a sequential delivery pattern based on your RN or FS reservation date.

Is possible the delivery is roughly RN sequentially for one particular state? Of course, CA essentially is two "state"s in one, soca and noca.

 

[Wraven]

Is possible the delivery is roughly RN sequentially for one particular state? Of course, CA essentially is two "state"s in one, soca and noca.

There are people with earlier FS order dates and/or lower numbered RNs still waiting on their CT here on this forum, so going by state, and using Cali as an example with the modifier of splitting north and south still seems unlikely that we know all the variables to establish a pattern.

 

[Gigahorse]

Wonder if they will mention numbers, ramp, and projections for the CT specifically in the quarterly call.

 

[Spacenoddle]

There are people with earlier FS order dates and/or lower numbered RNs still waiting on their CT here on this forum, so going by state, and using Cali as an example with the modifier of splitting north and south still seems unlikely that we know all the variables to establish a pattern.

True, i guess in CA, the location might based on the service centers.

 

[Mini2nut]

I think we will be lucky to see 30k CT’s leave the Austin assembly plant in 2024.

 

[SteelMyHeart]

I would only get concerned about production ramp if delivery windows get missed/pushed back.

So far I am not aware of anybody on this site who has posted they did not get their truck in delivery window given on day they configured order.

I configured on 1/17/24 with delivery window Jan-March. No vin yet but still plenty of time.

The delivery window is best gauge of bad options for production ramp I think, regardless of daily truck numbers.

I waited 9 weeks to get my Model Y last year and I was given a 12 week window and it matched tracking websites well for what I configured.

The only thing that surprised me in all this is that when ordering went live after initial delivery event the website said delivery in 2024....It made me think they underestimated demand and FS demand specifically and figured the high price would not have many takers among early reservation holders. Seems like Tesla may be pleasantly surprised by demand based on Elon's last earnings statements.

I will withhold judgment until a delivery window is missed.

 

[cvalue13]

Today in Joe’s video I counted almost 80 Cybertruck’s just during that video flyover and more were shown inside. 80 a day, if held, and if builds were going 6 days a week, would be 480/week, and t he at is what I was talking about.

do you use trucks seen in a flyover as a "why not," hypothetical - or do you do it because you think it's actually informative?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

do you use trucks seen in a flyover as a "why not," hypothetical - or do you do it because you think it's actually informative?

I use it as an illustration. In fact I do not know why you are harping on me when I am taking your own position. If I see 80 CTs in the lot at one point in time it tells me how many CTs can be made in that timeframe, on that day, and not how many CTs are being made. That is really what you have been saying for a long, long time. 80 CTs 'a day' for a 6-day week would amount to 480 CTs a week ***IF*** Tesla was doing that every day. They clearly are not, and you have said that how many times I do not care to count. So we agree. So lay off.

All observational data is informative. Does it allow prediction? Who knows. This forum is rife with speculation and is often entertaining. I do not seek to entertain. I seek to hypothesize whether I might have a chance at an invitation in a certain span of time. I think that I have been clear about that.

 

[theholyrice]

finally we have some clarity on production due to the recall news...roughly 1/5 of the orders are registered and 1/12 of deliveries are reported on this site. Which means it will take another 1-2 months until I get mine since I am about #5000 in line, so 1000 trucks away. I guess this is good news...

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

finally we have some clarity on production due to the recall news...roughly 1/5 of the orders are registered and 1/12 of deliveries are reported on this site. Which means it will take another 1-2 months until I get mine since I am about #5000 in line, so 1000 trucks away. I guess this is good news...

Sorry, not following your logic. I am 'guessing' that by "1/5 of the orders" you mean the number of orders on the Orders list on this forum, but I have no idea where you are getting the "1/5" from. The recall notice only tells us how many cars have been delivered between said dates, not how many orders there have been to that date. Do you have that information? You also say that "1/12 of deliveries". We do have that information from the recall and we know how many people have registered a delivery on this site, assuming that you counted those that were delivered in said timeframe.

I do not know what "#5000" means. Is that your VIN? If so, we know that there are about 1,000 trucks at GigaAustin and how many are in transit or sitting on lots or showrooms we do not know. If you are VIN #5000 I bet that your truck is en route or in that pile at Austin. If it means something else then it would be helpful to know what.

 

[Nox]

I ordered on Jan 10 and have been checking this site daily lol...and I noticed that Tesla is still delivering to customers who ordered on Dec. 9 2023, which is roughly the first 200 orders on the orders list. I thought Tesla has reached 50 trucks per day production rate a while ago? Even if they only make 10 Cybertrucks per day the first 200 should have been all delivered by Dec. 20 (20 days since Nov. 30 delivery event). So either there are more than 20x orders out there that are not registered on this site (24,000 Foundations Series, first 200 on list means 4000 actual orders and 4000/50 = 80 days), or Tesla has been producing at 3 Cybertrucks per day (Nov.30 - Feb 15 = 77 days), which also seems ridiculous. Can someone please chime in? Am I going crazy or is my math wrong??

Did you get the VIN? We are in Washington as well and it's taking forever...

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