It’s official: HW3 will not be able to achieve unsupervised FSD.

[not_elon_]

I suppose they could do FSD refunds / buybacks?

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[turns2stone]

Agreed that Tesla is unenthusiastic about the major expense of upgrading thousands of vehicles with new hardware (I assume only FSD purchasers are entitled, so it will be a small fraction of the HW3 vehicles).

Part of the difficulty in the retrofit is the form factor: the HW4 computer simply won't fit in the space, and requires extra power/cooling. I suppose they could mount HW4 in the frunk lol.

There have already been lawsuits over the failure to deliver FSD, and if Tesla tries to back out now after stating flatly that HW3 won't get there, it will spur more legal action (as well as significant negative public relations).

It may well be easier/cheaper to offer killer deals on trade-ins and FSD transfers. But they can't just drag their feet and hope the problem goes away.

By the time Tesla has dragged their feet even more on this (3 more years?) there won’t be that many HW3 owners with FSD that still care and/or haven’t moved onto a AI4 car. If you really want/care about FSD that much, you’ll have moved on by then, so “public backlash” will just be a weekend article on MSN.

 

[YDR37]

OK, so the outlook is still somewhat cloudy for HW3. But on a more positive note, the 1Q 2026 earnings call indicated that unsupervised FSD will "probably" start rolling out to customer AI4 vehicles in "the fourth quarter".

So just six to eight months from now. Sounds like some areas will get it sooner than others; it won't happen everywhere all at once.

Travis Axelrod — Investor Relations:
The next question is, when do you expect FSD unsupervised to reach customer cars?

Elon Musk — Chief Executive Officer:
I’m just guessing here, probably in the fourth quarter. It’s difficult to release this, like to everyone, everywhere, all at once because we do want to make sure that they’re not unique situations in a city that, you know, particularly complex intersection or, you know, actually they tend to be places where, where people get into accidents a lot because, because they’re just, you know, perhaps there’s like I said, an unsafe intersection or bad road markings or, you know, a lot of weather challenges.

So I think we would release unsupervised gradually to the customer fleet, you know, as we feel like a particular geography is confirmed to be safe.

 

[dalton108]

OK, so the outlook is still somewhat cloudy for HW3. But on a more positive note, the 1Q 2026 earnings call indicated that unsupervised FSD will "probably" start rolling out to customer AI4 vehicles in "the fourth quarter".

So just six to eight months from now. Sounds like some areas will get it sooner than others; it won't happen everywhere all at once.

Actually, I’m way more optimistic about HW3 retrofits going according to plan than I am about the unsupervised FSD rollout. When he says stuff like if the people have a lot of accidents in a location or bad intersections/something like that raises my eyebrows about Vegas — we have some of the highest accidents rates in the nation and we need FSD more than many!

It’s so vague and leaves lots of opportunities to decline to enter areas under the banner of safety. That makes me super uneasy.

 

[mitch9]

Well it sure looks like the REAL solution is to offer a healthy discount on a new HW4 model, and/or a trade-in credit on your old HW3 vehicle.. As they accumulate those older cars, and re-sell them, or use them for loaners, eventually they WILL have to upgrade them, or throw them away (not likely).

I don't know what they do with older Teslas, I traded in my 2013 Model S, at the time it had a HV battery issue, and would not even start... This was after I cleared my personal data (did a "factory reset", which is what they tell you to do on a trade-in). Luckily it was parked at the service center, not blocking anything.

If they do offer them as used/refurbished, they will have to clearly state that they have HW3, and CANNOT become fully autonomous, and will need a costly upgrade, probably most people buying a 5-8 year old Tesla will not care about FSD, and walla, problem solved

 

[YDR37]

Actually, I’m way more optimistic about HW3 retrofits going according to plan than I am about the unsupervised FSD rollout. When he says stuff like if the people have a lot of accidents in a location or bad intersections/something like that raises my eyebrows about Vegas — we have some of the highest accidents rates in the nation and we need FSD more than many!

It’s so vague and leaves lots of opportunities to decline to enter areas under the banner of safety. That makes me super uneasy.

Well, you could be right. And they are also flying the "banner of safety" over another issue:

Elon Musk — Chief Executive Officer
Now the question is like degrees of safety, like how safety and convenience. I suppose we have a lot of known improvements, like major architectural improvements that we know would improve the probability of safety significantly. So I think it’s not going to make sense for us to deploy, you know, unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi at large scale when we know that there are major architectural improvements to the software that can improve safety.

... So kind of depends on what your definition of large scale is. But I do think it wouldn’t be right for us to go to like very large scale on unsupervised FSD when we know that there are software improvements in the pipeline that would improve safety.

So it seems like Elon is saying that unsupervised FSD will "probably" happen in the fourth quarter -- but it might not happen in some areas initially, and it might not happen if there are pending software improvements that would enhance safety.

 

[vandytom]

Just glad it’s not HW4 phew

 

[REM]

Tesla has also “expressly stated” that HW3 could achieve unsupervised FSD

https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/2320/tesla-confirms-hardware-3-is-robotaxi-ready

I guarantee they will drag their feet on this and make it so customer-unfriendly that it won’t come to fruition in any meaningful way.

I’m not trolling or your typical internet skeptic. From 2019-2026, I’ve literally bought 4 new Teslas with FSD, so I’ve had plenty of experience watching Elon’s hits-and-misses when it comes to promises about the topic of unsupervised FSD.

This type of over-the-top rhetoric is truly getting tired. I'd say Lars and Franz were answering based on the assumption at the time that HW3 would be able to support it since that's what the engineers were reporting at the time; they then thought they would be able to apply a lite version of v14, and Elon has finally announced that it's just not possible to achieve the safety margins that they are wanting to achieve.

You are scraping the bottom of the barrel to find a video from 2024 of them two, drink in hand, suggesting that it's possible. This is not "expressly stated" from the company in the least bit of sense. It's a ridiculous leap, and you know it.

By the time Tesla has dragged their feet even more on this (3 more years?) there won’t be that many HW3 owners with FSD that still care and/or haven’t moved onto a AI4 car. If you really want/care about FSD that much, you’ll have moved on by then, so “public backlash” will just be a weekend article on MSN.

Partially agree, but definitely not on the "drag their feet" part. The engineers at Tesla are pulling off what no other company has been able to, and they are doing it at practically break-neck speed.

It's like saying SpaceX sucks because the starship program is only on v3 hardware.

 

[turns2stone]

This type of over-the-top rhetoric is truly getting tired. I'd say Lars and Franz were answering based on the assumption at the time that HW3 would be able to support it since that's what the engineers were reporting at the time; they then thought they would be able to apply a lite version of v14, and Elon has finally announced that it's just not possible to achieve the safety margins that they are wanting to achieve.

You are scraping the bottom of the barrel to find a video from 2024 of them two, drink in hand, suggesting that it's possible. This is not "expressly stated" from the company in the least bit of sense. It's a ridiculous leap, and you know it.



Partially agree, but definitely not on the "drag their feet" part. The engineers at Tesla are pulling off what no other company has been able to, and they are doing it at practically break-neck speed.

It's like saying SpaceX sucks because the starship program is only on v3 hardware.

It’s Tesla (Elon, really) with the “over the top rhetoric” and you know it. And so does everyone else.

I put my money where my mouth is, and Tesla should too. Until they actually provide HW3 cars with these upgrades, everyone should remain skeptical.

 

[REM]

It’s Tesla (Elon, really) with the “over the top rhetoric” and you know it. And so does everyone else.

I put my money where my mouth is, and Tesla should too. Until they actually provide HW3 cars with these upgrades, everyone should remain skeptical.

In my experience, people who complain the most about how FSD is being developed don't have even the slightest idea of how insanely complex and difficult it is.

We are witnessing the horse and carriage being automated, and people are complaining that it's taking longer than expected. Stop being so pessimistic.

 

[REM]

You can tell by the tone of his voice that these 'micro factories' to do the retrofits are simply something that popped into his head. There's not a real plan or timing for any of this retrofit.

I don't think this is a fair take considering this little gem that most people seem to be sleeping on:

Elon: "I do think over time it's going to make sense for us to convert all hardware 3 cars to hardware 4 because that's what enables them to enter the robo taxi fleet and and have unsupervised FSD."

If you have a HW3 car, Tesla is anticipating that a retrofit will allow you to enter that car into the robotaxi fleet.

I already own one of those, so that's one less barrier to entry for me making money with a product that has universally been a net losing asset more than 100 years. I think maybe you also forget that Ai4 hardware will be able to make money on distributed inference soon too.

The current value of my Model 3 is somewhere around $16,000. If I buy the HW4 upgrade, it will soon start making me money as I sit at home.

 

[turns2stone]

In my experience, people who complain the most about how FSD is being developed don't have even the slightest idea of how insanely complex and difficult it is.

We are witnessing the horse and carriage being automated, and people are complaining that it's taking longer than expected. Stop being so pessimistic.

I have full appreciation for how hard it is (both software and hardware) which is why I’m pessimistic they’re going to deliver on this ‘micro factories’ approach.

 

[rjmcinnis]

I suppose they could do FSD refunds / buybacks?

Not unless they buy the entire car back too. I bought based on written statements, and would not have bought FSD, let alone the M3P itself without them. They could also swap my car out for a capable one at no additional cost to me if they don’t want to create the proper retrofit.

 

[YDR37]

Just glad it’s not HW4 phew

Interestingly, though, Tesla is apparently planning to introduce a significant upgrade to HW4/AI4 in 2027:

Elon Musk — Chief Executive Officer
We are planning an AI4 upgrade to use newer generation RAM. So it will go from 16 gigabytes to, I think, 32 gigabytes per SoC. So a total of 64 gigabytes, and probably a 10% increase in compute in sort of into — trillions of operations per second and in memory bandwidth. So that’s AI4.1 or AI4+, probably goes into production middle of next year, I think, depends. It depends on — Samsung is doing the modifications for us. So it sort of depends on when they’re able to finish that — finish those modifications and bring it to production.

AI4 should be capable of autonomous driving, but possibly AI4+ will be even better at it.

It's not clear whether AI4 owners will have an upgrade path to AI4+. Also unclear: we know that there will an upgrade path for HW3 owners, but will it go from HW3 to AI4, or from HW3 to AI4+? Those HW3 upgrades might not happen until 2027, and by that point AI4+ could be available.

 

[BrockN]

Not unless they buy the entire car back too. I bought based on written statements, and would not have bought FSD, let alone the M3P itself without them. They could also swap my car out for a capable one at no additional cost to me if they don’t want to create the proper retrofit.

For sure.

I did an FSD transfer to a Y. Then hours before delivery, they divulged that it was a Made in China Y. I asked if there was any difference and was told none. But it turned out that the MiC Y's were still built with HW3... for several months... while US-built had HW4. That seems like a significant difference to me, especially given that the trigger for the purchase was the FSD transfer!

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