RVAC

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Elon did not say there would be no meaningful volume until next year.

He said Cybertruck production wouldn't contribute meaningfully to the bottom line until next year. For those who don't know, "the bottom line" refers to the profit or loss at the end of an accounting period, not the revenue. All vehicle ramps are unprofitable until large volumes are being cranked out every day. Until then, the expenses overwhelm the sales revenue. Elon was talking to analysts whose job it is to model expected profits.

I would be super pleased if they manage to put out 15-20K this year and would not be dissappointed if they only manage 6K (that's still a lot of trucks). The initial part of a ramp is always slow, perhaps more so with so much new manufacturing technology incorporated, including new tech from suppliers.
That's not what he said.

"We do expect production to start, I don't know, maybe sometime this summer. But I always like try to downplay the start of production because the start of production is always very slow. It increases exponentially, but it's always very slow at first. So I wouldn't put too much thought in start of production. It's kind of when does volume production actually happen, and that's next year."

So yes, no meaningful volume in 2023.
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seanrarey

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If you are 40k in line and say 60% of the early orders don't complete which puts u about 16,000 in line yeah u might get urs.
Before people get all huffy saying 60% is too high please remember it's been about 5 years. People die, they get married, they have a kid, that kid grows up and goes to college. Interest rates go up, stock market goes down, they get laid off from Twitter.
There is a world of difference between putting $100 down and then waiting 5 years and then actually purchasing $60,000 vehicle.
I like the 60% attrition rate, here is hoping! 🤞
 

Gundo

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HW4 is exciting as well.
anyone have details?
I’ve read perhaps more cameras and different sensors. Elon said it would launch first on CT - wonder if that’s still the case?
 


intimidator

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So what's the chance of deliveries of 40k order numbers this year? 50/50?
IMO, zero

Instead of 40,000, I think it will be in the range of 5,000 to 10,000.

Yesterday Elon said initial production will be hard, and will go slowly.

Wait until 2024 to see any decent volume. And he didn't say JANUARY of 2024. He said "2024".
So it could be a slow ramp in the 1st of half of 2024.

We have to wait awhile longer to get too excited. One year from now we can start to see land.
and maybe get one in 2025!
 

intimidator

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Sooo…..volume production 2024 sounds like another delay to me…☹
You are not wrong.

If you listened to the call closely, and to Elon's words, he said initial production would be be slow at first.

And volume production would be in 2024. And he didn't say JANUARY 2024. He said "2024".
Could be anytime in 2024. Or slow slow in January, ramping throughout the year and hitting a high run rate in late 2024.
 

LDRHAWKE

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I imagine place in line will change dramatically when three wheel drives are giving priority and moved to the front….. Along with all the other variables mentioned that will change overtime.

Also I wonder what the revised 0 to 60 speed for the 4 wheel drive will be compared to the 3 wheel drive in that was estimated to be 2.9 seconds
 


Cybertruckee

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Those who are living near Giga Texas should be seeing beta testing of CT by employees who will be allowed to take it home as they've done in Fremont on their earlier models.

Tesla is known to make corrections and adjustments on the fly while running the production lines and they have steep learning curve. Volume will be function on how fast they can replicate a line and get enough skilled people to run it -- and run it well. Remember this is Texas. And with due respect and advance apologies to it's citizens and who are members here reading this post, in a company I used to work for (not even a fully robotic production line), we have to redesign our machines to look like a McD cash register with pictures so workers can just imitate the stick figure shown on what to do and what button to press (in case they see flashing red lights and loud sirens, lol). :eek:
 
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Kalzone

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Per Elon Musk on the 2022 Q4 earnings call:

Elon:

Cybertruck will have HW4. HW3 to HW4 retrofit is not needed.
For 2023 Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to the bottom line, but it will be next year (2024).
I can't wait to drive it. It's the car I will drive personally.
We do expect production to start some time this summer.
Volume production (which is more important) won't happen until 2024.
More Beta Cybertrucks are coming next month.
I can't wait for this day to come!!! I pre-ordered Jan 2020
 

Cybertruckee

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I imagine place in line will change dramatically when three wheel drives are giving priority and moved to the front….. Along with all the other variables mentioned that will change overtime.

Also I wonder what the revised 0 to 60 speed for the 4 wheel drive will be compared to the 3 wheel drive in that was estimated to be 2.9 seconds
Priority will be more on the most profitable variant and with the lest complexity in manufacture.

Since they intend to de-emphasize single motor, it would be dual motor ahead of the more complicated 3 and 4 - motors as they climb into the more complex manufacturing processes.
 

Ehninger1212

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Some in their excitement thinking they are soon to get their CT would play with themselves while waiting for a call on their phone. ;)
And we are all VERY excited, hence my suggestion to purchase WD-40 Shares! Im pretty sure Elon uses it to shine his rocket(s) as well.
 

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Is this the most profitable nearly always the most expensive? You sound like a man with a dual motor on order😊
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