Tesla 1Q 2026 Delivery Numbers

[YDR37]

Tesla released the 1Q 2026 production and delivery numbers today.

358,023 Total Deliveries, including:
341,893 Models 3/Y
16,130 Other Models (= S, X, Cybertruck)

1Q is typically the slowest quarter of the year. Here is how the 1Q 2026 number compares to other recent 1Q numbers:

1Q 2021: 184,800
1Q 2022: 310,048
1Q 2023: 422,875 (peak year for Tesla vehicle deliveries)
1Q 2024: 386,810
1Q 2025: 336,681 (low Model Y sales due to Juniper transition)
1Q 2026: 358,023

The 2026 number suggests that Tesla vehicle deliveries may have bottomed out and are starting to recover. However, they remain below the peak 2023-2024 levels.

The 16,130 number for deliveries of “Other Models” is relatively high. Normally this would suggest strong Cybertruck sales, but for this quarter, it may mean strong sales of the S/X instead. S/X deliveries could be spiking because Tesla recently announced that these models are being discontinued (so this is the last chance to get a new one). Should get more info in a few weeks when Cox provides their estimates of US EV sales.

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[YDR37]

Also, Tesla announced that the 1Q 2026 financial results will be released on Apri 22, 2026. Analysts will be looking to see if the uptick in vehicle deliveries leads to an uptick in profits. This is not necessarily guaranteed, because Tesla deliveries have been shifting towards less expensive, lower-margin models (like the 3/Y "Standard" versions), while shifting away from more expensive, higher-margin models (like the soon-to-be discontinued S/X).

In the same way, it's possible that the Cybertruck may become less profitable for Tesla in the future, if the new $69,990 AWD Standard version cannibalizes sales from the $79,990 AWD Premium version.

 

[YDR37]

Another point of interest: the 1Q 2026 production numbers.

408,386 Total Production, including:
394,611 Models 3/Y
13,775 Other Models (= S, X, Cybertruck)

Tesla produced 394,611 3/Y in 1Q 2026, even though they only delivered 341,893. So that is a surplus of 52,718 3/Y, which is an unusually large difference. The extra 3/Y are boosting global inventory.

Deliveries normally rise from 1Q to 2Q, but in this case, Tesla may be betting on an unusually strong rise. And yeah, it would make sense if there was a spike in 3/Y demand in 2Q 2026, given the recent increases in gasoline prices.

In contrast, the production of "Other Models" (S, X, Cybertruck) was lower than deliveries. This probably reflects the winding down of S/X production. Tesla is no longer taking orders for the S/X; you can still get a new S/X, but you have to select it from existing inventory.

 

[AlDente]

I've been informally tracking Cybertruck sales by VIN since ordering on Feb 05, 2026. My Feb 5th order with a mid Feb VIN of 91xxx and the most recent I've seen from mid March was 93xxx. That would be approximately 2000 Cybertruck's a month and perhaps 6K of the Q1 16K other models. Seems about right and with zero inventory thats plenty of bandwidth.

If Tesla is only building 2K Cybertrucks a month that may explain the 2027 delivery estimates for the new (10 day duration) $59K Cybertrucks. That could be an additional +/- 24K orders of just that decontented DM. I usually hate this type of speculation and that's indicative of too much time on my hands. I'll leave this alone as I'm all set Cybertruck wise.

 

[CybertruckFox]

I've been informally tracking Cybertruck sales by VIN since ordering on Feb 05, 2026. My Feb 5th order with a mid Feb VIN of 91xxx and the most recent I've seen from mid March was 93xxx. That would be approximately 2000 Cybertruck's a month and perhaps 6K of the Q1 16K other models. Seems about right and with zero inventory thats plenty of bandwidth.

If Tesla is only building 2K Cybertrucks a month that may explain the 2027 delivery estimates for the new (10 day duration) $59K Cybertrucks. That could be an additional +/- 24K orders of just that decontented DM. I usually hate this type of speculation and that's indicative of too much time on my hands. I'll leave this alone as I'm all set Cybertruck wise.

My guess is they are ramping up production right now. 24kish Cybertrucks a year sounds about right before their offering of the 59k model.

I wonder if/when they ramp up production how many models they can output a month.

 

[AlDente]

My guess is they are ramping up production right now. 24kish Cybertrucks a year sounds about right before their offering of the 59k model.

I wonder if/when they ramp up production how many models they can output a month.

With over 2M reservations they were very optimistic. Musk mentioned 250K/yr after production ramp up. Only missed it by 90%+.

Only Tesla knows the actual numbers and anone spilling the beans is likely fired on the spot just like any properly functioning autocracy.

 

[tingmo13]

is it still a car company?

 

[YDR37]

I wonder if/when they ramp up production how many models they can output a month.

Only Tesla knows the actual numbers and anone spilling the beans is likely fired on the spot just like any properly functioning autocracy.

Tesla may be an autocracy, but they aren't totally opaque, because they are also a publicly traded company (at least for now). So they have certain legal obligations to report basic stats (like production capacity) to investors. I've posted the production capacity table from the most recent (4Q 2025) report to shareholders below.

You can see that Cybertruck capacity is listed as ">125,000" per year, which is equivalent to 10,417 per month. They've never come close to that production level.

Note that Tesla is not being completely transparent here; the table includes a lot of ">" signs, which indicate that these are minimum figures. It's widely suspected that the true CT production capacity is more like 200,000 to 250,000 per year. The numbers in the table only add up to >2.35 million vehicles per year -- but Tesla has separately indicated that their total vehicle production capacity is close to 3 million. So they appear to be sandbagging the numbers in the table.

The 100,000 number for Model S/X is good, because that actually was the approximate max for S/X production back in 2017 and 2018. Presumably that number will go away in the 1Q 2026 or 2Q 2026 report (and get replaced by a production number for Optimus robots).

 

[YDR37]

is it still a car company?

You may laugh at the idea of a "Tesla Bakery", but obviously someone has to be baking the "local white bread" for the Chill Mode Grilled Cheese (and other fine menu options) at the Tesla Diner.

Maybe it's Optimus.

 

[petercyber]

Also, Tesla announced that the 1Q 2026 financial results will be released on Apri 22, 2026. Analysts will be looking to see if the uptick in vehicle deliveries leads to an uptick in profits. This is not necessarily guaranteed, because Tesla deliveries have been shifting towards less expensive, lower-margin models (like the 3/Y "Standard" versions), while shifting away from more expensive, higher-margin models (like the soon-to-be discontinued S/X).

In the same way, it's possible that the Cybertruck may become less profitable for Tesla in the future, if the new $69,990 AWD Standard version cannibalizes sales from the $79,990 AWD Premium version.

There's no cannibalizing, in this case, you can say the model 3 cannibalized model S and so on. It just will increase the CT sales, and whoever has the moeny, gets the higher trim.

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