It’s official: HW3 will not be able to achieve unsupervised FSD.

[dalton108]

Options will be retrofit to upgrade cameras and computer or trade-in.

sources coming:

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[turns2stone]

Plenty of sources but this is verbatim: https://www.theverge.com/transportation/917167/elon-musk-tesla-hw3-fsd

You can tell by the tone of his voice that these 'micro factories' to do the retrofits are simply something that popped into his head. There's not a real plan or timing for any of this retrofit.

As someone who previously owned two HW3 cars with paid FSD, take my advice - cut your losses now and sell the car, if you really are hoping it will be truly autonomous someday.

 

[UberNoob]

Contrary to my profile pic, offloaded my 2022 M3P last October to Carvana. Bye bye YumYum.

 

[dalton108]

Plenty of sources but this is verbatim: https://www.theverge.com/transportation/917167/elon-musk-tesla-hw3-fsd

You can tell by the tone of his voice that these 'micro factories' to do the retrofits are simply something that popped into his head. There's not a real plan or timing for any of this retrofit.

As someone who previously owned two HW3 cars with paid FSD, take my advice - cut your losses now and sell the car, if you really are hoping it will be truly autonomous someday.

I traded my HW3 M3P for my HW4 MSP. My wife upgraded from her HW3 MY to her HW4 MX. A friend bought my 3, and my mother-in-law drives our Y.

I can’t agree with your pessimism. Tesla has always expressly stated since HW3 came out that if your car couldn’t achieve full FSD it would be retrofitted. They’ve been clear and consistent and this is just furtherance of fulfilling that promise.

All that this tells me is that they’re getting close to achieving unsupervised FSD and they now have to get serious about how they’re gonna do these retrofits before they do have meritorious lawsuits. I fully expect to send our Model Y for retrofitting when it becomes available.

I think the salient takeaways are: (1) we’re obviously getting close and they need a solution, (2) there is no question that HW4 is good to go.

I’m not sure why everybody’s acting like this is some kind of red flag. All the way back in 2019 at autonomy day, EM noted that HW3 would be modular and could be swapped out if it couldn’t achieve full FSD. [The unsupervised/supervised nomenclature was not in use at that time.]

I’m not a fan boy and I am aggressively against hero worship in every single one of its forms (and will call it out every time I see it), but, facts are facts.

This was a known-known, the risk of failure and the solution was always clear and Tesla has been transparent about it since day one.

Anybody saying otherwise is trying to sell you something.

 

[turns2stone]

I traded my HW3 M3P for my HW4 MSP. My wife upgraded from her HW3 MY to her HW4 MX. A friend bought my 3, and my mother-in-law drives our Y.

I can’t agree with your pessimism. Tesla has always expressly stated since HW3 came out that if your car couldn’t achieve full FSD it would be retrofitted. They’ve been clear and consistent and this is just furtherance of fulfilling that promise.

All that this tells me is that they’re getting close to achieving unsupervised FSD and they now have to get serious about how they’re gonna do these retrofits before they do have meritorious lawsuits. I fully expect to send our Model Y for retrofitting when it becomes available.

Tesla has also “expressly stated” that HW3 could achieve unsupervised FSD

https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/2320/tesla-confirms-hardware-3-is-robotaxi-ready

I guarantee they will drag their feet on this and make it so customer-unfriendly that it won’t come to fruition in any meaningful way.

I’m not trolling or your typical internet skeptic. From 2019-2026, I’ve literally bought 4 new Teslas with FSD, so I’ve had plenty of experience watching Elon’s hits-and-misses when it comes to promises about the topic of unsupervised FSD.

 

[dalton108]

Tesla has also “expressly stated” that HW3 could achieve unsupervised FSD

https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/2320/tesla-confirms-hardware-3-is-robotaxi-ready

I guarantee they will drag their feet on this and make it so customer-unfriendly that it won’t come to fruition in any meaningful way.

I’m not trolling or your typical internet skeptic. From 2019-2026, I’ve literally bought 4 new Teslas with FSD, so I’ve had plenty of experience watching Elon’s hits-and-misses when it comes to promises about the topic of unsupervised FSD.

I’m not calling you a troll. I just said you were being “pessimistic” and, of course, you are. Which, btw, is totally fine.

EM has been equivocal about this from the beginning. As I noted above, literally on autonomy day back in 2019, he allowed for the possibility that HW3 would not make it and if it didn’t it was modular and could be swapped out.

There’s no benefit to dragging their feet. I think they’re going to want to be able to move with all deliberate speed to avoid creating actionable damages when people become impatient.

I have virtually no doubt that my 2020 model Y will be able to do everything I was told it will be able to do back in 2019 after it’s retrofit.

I think a lot of the hand-ringing is performative. Like they say:

"The difficult we do immediately; the impossible takes a little longer."

 

[dalton108]

Plenty of sources but this is verbatim: https://www.theverge.com/transportation/917167/elon-musk-tesla-hw3-fsd

Thanks! I didn’t use the verge because it was behind a paywall and I was waiting for something better to come along. And I still am.

 

[not_elon_]

HW3 getting FSD transfer allowance incoming let’s hope.

 

[turns2stone]

I’m not calling you a troll. I just said you were being “pessimistic” and, of course, you are. Which, btw, is totally fine.

EM has been equivocal about this from the beginning. As I noted above, literally on autonomy day back in 2019, he allowed for the possibility that HW3 would not make it and if it didn’t it was modular and could be swapped out.

There’s no benefit to dragging their feet. I think they’re going to want to be able to move with all deliberate speed to avoid creating actionable damages when people become impatient.

I have virtually no doubt that my 2020 model Y will be able to do everything I was told it will be able to do back in 2019 after it’s retrofit.

I think a lot of the hand-ringing is performative. Like they say:

"The difficult we do immediately; the impossible takes a little longer."

I ran out of optimism for HW3 about a year ago.

Let’s not forget summer 2024 when Elon said AI5 would be in all Tesla cars by the end of 2025. And now in early 2026, AI5 isn’t going in cars, until Tesla can no longer physically produce AI4, which could mean 10 years (yes, I’m sure AI4.1 that he referred to today will see the light of day in ~2 years).

 

[turns2stone]

Thanks! I didn’t use the verge because it was behind a paywall and I was waiting for something better to come along. And I still am.

I forget Verge has a paywall for some articles, this is better anyways:

 

[dalton108]

HW3 getting FSD transfer allowance incoming let’s hope.

I’d say that’s probable. I did not/do not believe that there will never be another FSD purchase opportunity and allowing folks to transfer FSD from their HW3 rigs to a new Tesla will save them (Tesla) a shit ton of money on retrofits and the logistics of creating mini service centers.

I think the real question is what car are they going to have available to put it in? Not everybody wants a 3, Y or a CT. Virtually no one is going to be able to afford the New Roadster. And Elon claims he’s not going to sell you a cybercab!

This “way better than a minivan” thing better be something truly special, cause there’s major holes in there lineup at this point.

 

[SCTesla]

I’d say that’s probable. I did not/do not believe that there will never be another FSD purchase opportunity and allowing folks to transfer FSD from their HW3 rigs to a new Tesla will save them (Tesla) a shit ton of money on retrofits and the logistics of creating mini service centers.

I think the real question is what car are they going to have available to put it in? Not everybody wants a 3, Y or a CT. Virtually no one is going to be able to afford the New Roadster. And Elon claims he’s not going to sell you a cybercab!

This “way better than a minivan” thing better be something truly special, cause there’s major holes in there lineup at this point.

He did reiterate that the Roadster will be the only vehicle with a steering coming. Not sure what the "minivan" will be.

 

[CyberGus]

I guarantee they will drag their feet on this and make it so customer-unfriendly that it won’t come to fruition in any meaningful way.

Agreed that Tesla is unenthusiastic about the major expense of upgrading thousands of vehicles with new hardware (I assume only FSD purchasers are entitled, so it will be a small fraction of the HW3 vehicles).

Part of the difficulty in the retrofit is the form factor: the HW4 computer simply won't fit in the space, and requires extra power/cooling. I suppose they could mount HW4 in the frunk lol.

There have already been lawsuits over the failure to deliver FSD, and if Tesla tries to back out now after stating flatly that HW3 won't get there, it will spur more legal action (as well as significant negative public relations).

It may well be easier/cheaper to offer killer deals on trade-ins and FSD transfers. But they can't just drag their feet and hope the problem goes away.

 

[tingmo13]

I have no clue why those who bought FSD while back let go both the Fed & State EV credit, rebate etc and keep complaining!
People do upgrade iphone for sure!

 

[CyberGus]

I suppose they could mount HW4 in the frunk lol.

They could always go with Doc Brown's BTTF3 solution

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