‘Around the world’

[newwave1331]

Yes, initially reservations were open globally, and I have one. Currently they are not. They closed them down internationally but it was quite some time after the launch (a year or so after), so it’s unclear how to read that.

If they came out and said openly that international isn’t happening, then of course I could grab my 100 moneys back What does give a glimmer of hope is that Tesla generally has not done the regional play and has had all cars available globally once production gets going.

Once Tesla figures out all the initial road bumps with the first line in Austin, they should add another there. I think it would be a mistake if Tesla isn't shooting for the 500k capacity out of Austin. Without a doubt the North American make could soak up that capacity. If demand falls short of that (which is a longshot) they could add an international market. Unlike Fremont, Austin is not very close to a port. They would have to ship out of Houston. This makes me think that Scandinavian countries could see limited allocations before Australia.

Can Tesla make China a cybertruck market? If so, maybe we see the next production line there. Tesla has a pretty well established Model 3/Y market and charging infrastructure there along with South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Australia/New Zealand. If 250k is the base capacity of a production line, could these countries support that supply out of China? That's the only way I see cybertruck going to the Far East/Australian markets.

Sponsored

 

[firsttruck]

Once Tesla figures out all the initial road bumps with the first line in Austin, they should add another there. I think it would be a mistake if Tesla isn't shooting for the 500k capacity out of Austin. Without a doubt the North American make could soak up that capacity. If demand falls short of that (which is a longshot) they could add an international market. Unlike Fremont, Austin is not very close to a port. They would have to ship out of Houston. This makes me think that Scandinavian countries could see limited allocations before Australia.

Can Tesla make China a cybertruck market? If so, maybe we see the next production line there. Tesla has a pretty well established Model 3/Y market and charging infrastructure there along with South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Australia/New Zealand. If 250k is the base capacity of a production line, could these countries support that supply out of China? That's the only way I see cybertruck going to the Far East/Australian markets.

Mexico has many trade agreements with countries in South America, Central America, Australia, New Zealand, many countries in Asia, European Union, and States of the European Free Trade Association.

Mexico has 13 free trade agreements covering 50 countries (and trading networks spanning north, south, east and west), making it one of the world's broadest networks of free trade agreements.

If Tesla had a Cybertruck production line and 4680 battery factory in Mexico they could use same component suppliers as Tesla Austin, which suppliers are mostly located in U.S. & Mexico.

Much easier than setting up a whole new supplier base for Cybertruck in another region of the world.

 

[newwave1331]

Mexico has many trade agreements with countries in South America, Central America, Australia, New Zealand, many countries in Asia, European Union, and States of the European Free Trade Association.

Mexico has 13 free trade agreements covering 50 countries (and trading networks spanning north, south, east and west), making it one of the world's broadest networks of free trade agreements.

If Tesla had a Cybertruck production line and 4680 battery factory in Mexico they could use same component suppliers as Tesla Austin, which suppliers are mostly located in U.S. & Mexico.

Much easier than setting up a whole new supplier base for Cybertruck in another region of the world.

Tesla has no stores or charging infrastructure in South America or Central America yet. Model 2 will help establish these markets but the small, cheap diesel pickup trucks will be there for a while.

You are probably right that they will get a cybertruck line next rather than China. North American demand for cybertruck is crazy. Other left hand drive markets, where Tesla has the stores/charging infrastructure in place has the the best chance at getting cybertruck next.

 

[firsttruck]

......
You are probably right that they will get a cybertruck line next rather than China. North American demand for cybertruck is crazy. Other left hand drive markets, where Tesla has the stores/charging infrastructure in place has the the best chance at getting cybertruck next.

Full-size pickup Ford F-150 are already officially sold in most South America countries, Central America, most countries in Caribbean, Middle East (including Afghanistan), many countries in Africa, some Pacific Ocean island nations.

-----------------------------------------

Ford F-Series
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_F-Series

.....
outside of the United States, Canada, and Mexico, the Ford F-150 is officially sold in most Caribbean countries (except Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Cuba), Suriname, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, the Middle East (including Afghanistan), Iceland, China, Cambodia, the Philippines, Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, the French Overseas Collectivities of French Polynesia[46] and New Caledonia, Gabon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Madagascar, the Dutch territories of Aruba, Curaçao, Saint Maarten and the British overseas territory of the Cayman Islands. The SVT Raptor is sold in the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Middle East (including Afghanistan), China, Ecuador, Chile and Peru.

Tesla has no stores or charging infrastructure in South America or Central America yet. Model 2 will help establish these markets but the small, cheap diesel pickup trucks will be there for a while.
....

A lot can change from now to 3-4 years in future when Cybertruck fulfills current reservation backlog.

Things might play out similar to cell phone adoption. Rural areas that had weak or no landline telephine service leapfrogged directly to cell phones and in some cases exceeded adoption rates in more developed countries.

In many countries, many suburban and rural areas have weak grids or no grids. Solar panels, Wind turbines & LFP (& sodium) based batteries will be cheaper than fossil fueled electric power-plant & grid.

Suburban/rural areas with weak/no grids - homes, businesses and industries might install solar panels, wind turbines & LFP (& sodium) based batteries, and EV chargers.

The road infrastructure in these areas is also probably poor so a low ground clearance EV like what a highly aero efficient, low cost model 2 (without height adjustable suspension) could be problematic.

Full-sized Cybertruck or mid-sized Cybertruck (Elon nick namerd "Wolverine") might fit better.

-------------------------------------

Disruption, Implications, and Choices Rethinking Energy 2020-2030 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is Just the Beginning A RethinkX Sector Disruption Report
Published October 2020
By Adam Dorr & Tony Seba
https://tonyseba.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/RethinkingEnergy2020-2030-LRR.pdf

-------------------------------------

Energy Report — RethinkX
We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most profound disruption of the energy sector in over a century.
Published 2022
https://www.rethinkx.com/energy

.....
“Just as the Internet disrupted many incumbent industries but facilitated the emergence of many more – and created trillions of dollars of new value – by reducing the marginal cost of information to near zero, the SWB disruption will have a similar impact by reducing the marginal cost of energy to near-zero for a substantial portion of the year.”

.....
We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most profound disruption of the energy sector in over a century. Like most disruptions, this one is being driven by the convergence of several key technologies whose costs and capabilities have been improving on consistent and predictable trajectories – namely, solar photovoltaic power, wind power, and lithium-ion battery energy storage. Our analysis shows that 100% clean electricity from the combination of solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) is both physically possible and economically affordable across the entire continental United States as well as the overwhelming majority of other populated regions of the world by 2030. Adoption of SWB is growing exponentially worldwide and disruption is now inevitable because by 2030 they will offer the cheapest electricity option for most regions. Coal, gas, and nuclear power assets will become stranded during the 2020s, and no new investment in these technologies is rational from this point forward.

-------------------------------------

Clean technology disruptions can springboard Sri Lanka from economic collapse to unthinkable prosperity
July 26, 2022 / By Bradd Libby
https://rethinkdisruption.com/sri-l...-economic-collapse-to-unthinkable-prosperity/

.....
Sri Lanka’s unprecedented economic collapse thus provides us a window into what can happen when a society does not understand or respond to the unfolding energy, transport and food disruptions, and how they are at once accelerating the obsolescence of incumbent industries, while also creating new opportunities as they rewrite the economic and geopolitical landscape. What is happening to Sri Lanka serves as a warning to other societies.

The country has only two real choices:

1. Remain dependent upon foreign imports of fuel and fertilizer, and hope that the pandemic disappears, that energy prices drop, and that life quickly returns to how it was a few years ago, almost by magic.

Or

2. Move toward energy and food independence by building a fossil-fuel-free energy system based on solar power, wind power and batteries (SWB), and use its clean energy to produce fertilizer and electrify the nation’s road transportation.

The most important insight here is that option 2 does not entail a simple one-for-one substitution, but a completely new system free from the scarcity-driven constraints of extraction-age industries, paving the way for a new era of abundance.

RethinkX’s research shows that a 100% SWB system optimized using the Clean Energy U-Curve will have 3 to 5 times as much generating capacity as today’s grid. By designing the system to get through the worst times of the year, it will produce a surplus of electricity throughout the rest of the year – to electrify transportation and other forms of energy use. And, crucially, all of that surplus electricity will be virtually free because solar panels generate power at near-zero marginal cost. We call this huge surplus of clean, nearly-free energy Super Power, and it is going to change everything – not just in the energy sector, but across every value chain energy touches throughout the global economy.

For Sri Lanka, there are some specific benefits of harnessing a 100% SWB system:
.....

-------------------------------------


A Plan for Türkiye (Turkey): Recovery from this Disaster and Preparation for the Next
February 15, 2023
By Bradd Libby & guest contributor, Çiğdem Özgen,
https://rethinkdisruption.com/a-pla...m-this-disaster-and-preparation-for-the-next/

.....
The Disaster After the Disaster
The danger from the Gaziantep earthquakes did not end when the ground stopped shaking. In many ways, it only just began. The temperatures in that area fell to a few degrees below freezing at night, and only a few degrees above freezing during the day. Tens of thousands of people in the area, some of my own family included, were left temporarily homeless by the quakes, and therefore at risk of hypothermia.

Fossil fuels are difficult to transport and distribute along damaged and rubble-strewn roads. An explosion in a natural gas pipeline was caused by the quake. Operation of oil pipelines was disrupted. Unfortunately, Türkiye relies on fossil fuels for the vast majority of its energy supply, including almost all transport. However, Türkiye in general, and particularly the area near Gaziantep and to the south and east, is blessed with sunshine. The northwest coast and upland regions have ample wind.

For inspiration as to what can be done, Türkiye should look to the people of Vietnam. Although there was basically no solar power generation in that country in 2018, just four years later, solar power accounted for more than 10% of the nation’s electric demand. According to the Rapid Transition Alliance, “in 2010, the South East Asian country was ranked 196th in the world according to its solar energy capacity. By 2021, Viet Nam had climbed to ninth in the global rankings, jumping above both Spain and France”.

.....
The Turkish people are planning to spend US$15 Billion to dig the new Istanbul Canal, a channel which will run parallel to the Bosporus Strait that connects the Black Sea to the outside world. According to Wikipedia: “the stated purpose of the project is to reduce the large marine traffic through the Bosporus and minimise the risks and dangers associated particularly with tankers.” Of approximately 41,000 ships that pass annually through the Bosporus, about 8000 are for moving oil.

But the rapid switch in wheeled transportation from combustion-powered to electric-powered, driven by the sort of autonomous robotaxis that are already on the road in places like San Francisco, California, and Phoenix, Arizona, going as quickly as cars replaced horses a century ago, would result in a steep drop in demand for oil products in the coming decade that could make the new canal obsolete before it even comes into service.

-------------------------------------

 

[firsttruck]

Because cost of solar panels is so low ( and still getting cheaper), Cybertruck and other BEVs will be usable and economically viable in most any region that gets a lot of sunlight.

-------------------------------

* Numerous studies forecast that 100% renewable energy (RE) systems in regions, countries, and worldwide, will work not only for providing electricity, but also for providing all energy.

* A 100% RE system can supply regions, countries, and the world reliably (24-7) with energy at low cost.

* A transformation to 100% RE can occur faster than current expectations: the power sector can transform by 2030 and the other sectors soon thereafter. With political will, a transformation of the global energy sector by 2030-35 appears to be possible!


World’s Leading Energy Scientists Reach Unprecedented Agreement: 100% Clean Renewable Energy Globally is Best, Cheapest and Achievable by 2030-2035
Dubai, UAE – At the Dii Desert Energy Partners’ Meeting 2021

https://www.rethinkx.com/joint-declaration

----------------------

Rethinking Energy -- 100% Solar, Wind and Batteries Is Just The Beginning
Feb 16, 2021
Tony Seba

------



----------------------

RethinkX Videos
https://www.rethinkx.com/videos

----------------------

 

[cvalue13]

one should probably to take a pretty broad read of ‘certification’

… to also include things as seemingly minor as photo shoots in exotic locations, with other unique conditions/air qualities

 

[cvalue13]

 

[madquadbiker]

Tesla recently said they are testing Cybertruck vehicles around the world for final certification and validation. I am most certainly reading too much into that quote, but it struck me as a bit odd at the time and perhaps could get your thoughts.

Is there any reason that certification would require testing in many countries, other than if you plan to release it in many countries? I can understand internally wanting to test in winter conditions (New Zealand), but does US certification require that? Also to me ‘many countries’ sounds like more than two. What possible reason would you have for testing in further countries? Unless indeed you wanted to certify internationally.

Well the U.K. would be the perfect place to test a vehicle without any sunshine.

 

[wtibbit]

Sometimes truth hides in the shadows...

 

[RR2241TX]

It seems highly likely that the Wolverine CT and Wolverine Van will be added to the production schedule at the second China plant as China already has a massive export infrastructure, abundance of LFP battery capacity and a proven manufacturing base. The Wolverine platform will dominate most non-North American markets where the roads don’t readily accommodate 8 foot wide X 22 foot long vehicles. I also believe the Wolverine models will be offered in right hand drive, even if only by special order.

It is also likely that the Wolverine CT/van will be added to Mexico as a second production line once the Model 2 is scaled. There’s a lot of potential buyers for a mid-size truck or minivan in NA. Building them in Mexico makes more sense than making two versions in Austin and they’ll still qualify for the incentives.

 

[Setok]

It seems highly likely that the Wolverine CT and Wolverine Van will be added to the production schedule at the second China plant as China already has a massive export infrastructure, abundance of LFP battery capacity and a proven manufacturing base. The Wolverine platform will dominate most non-North American markets where the roads don’t readily accommodate 8 foot wide X 22 foot long vehicles. I also believe the Wolverine models will be offered in right hand drive, even if only by special order.

It is also likely that the Wolverine CT/van will be added to Mexico as a second production line once the Model 2 is scaled. There’s a lot of potential buyers for a mid-size truck or minivan in NA. Building them in Mexico makes more sense than making two versions in Austin and they’ll still qualify for the incentives.

Those measurements aren’t right. The Cybertruck is much smaller than that.

Having said that it is definitely a long vehicle for many markets. Rumour is around 5.7m. The width is also a tad awkward but roughly in line with large SUVs and vans. Many largeish vans are also as long or longer, but of course most people here don’t drive something like that to pick up the groceries.

Sponsored