? Tesla Q4 2021 Earnings Call Audio Webcast Stream - Listen Here @ 5:30 Eastern / 2:30 Pacific

[Dusty]

The more I think about the earnings call comments about the priority being the optimus bot I am really blown away. They have over a million preorders for the CT they would easily sell everyone they could make for 5 years and they want to focus on the bot that has limited practical use until they perfect FSD so maybe 10 years from now. I really am blown away. Really Elon, this is the road to profitable Tesla. The bot is to big of a step right now. The world is practically begging for EV truck and transport vehicles...

The Optimus idea would dwarf vehicle sales if he pulls it off. It would revolutionise healthcare, industry, and household goods

A few years ago I was talking with friends about something wildly awesome. How much would people pay for a set of robotic arms rigged in their kitchen that would cook from scratch like a world class chef, set your table, and clean the kitchen at every meal? What if new homes had that as an option?

Or, you put clothes in the laundry area and when you come back it's all cleaned and folded.

That's a huge quality of life ambition. I know if something like that were to be developed over the next decade it would change my life. Then have that kind of tech in industry for janitorial jobs or road maintenance ... It's all about perspective.

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[Dusty]

I was wrong in being optimistic limited production to start at the end of the year.

we are pretty sure the following is required

I was too optimistic as well. Elon said 4680s aren't the issue. It all falls squarely on chips right now.

The priority is selling as many Ys as possible and using chips for anything else would severely reduce profits in 2022.

 

[Throwcomputer]

The Optimus idea would dwarf vehicle sales if he pulls it off. It would revolutionise healthcare, industry, and household goods

A few years ago I was talking with friends about something wildly awesome. How much would people pay for a set of robotic arms rigged in their kitchen that would cook from scratch like a world class chef, set your table, and clean the kitchen at every meal? What if new homes had that as an option?

Or, you put clothes in the laundry area and when you come back it's all cleaned and folded.

That's a huge quality of life ambition. I know if something like that were to be developed over the next decade it would change my life. Then have that kind of tech in industry for janitorial jobs or road maintenance ... It's all about perspective.

I don't know what kind of household you and your friends live in.. But in mine, a fully functional semi autonomous bipedal robot isnt even in the realm of affordable!

They won't be selling a ton of those things to the general public. They might sell a lot to corporations, but that is decades out, so kinda irrational to shift your focus to a decades long iffy project when you literally have over a million reservations for a project you can relatively easily finish within 3 years.

It's so out there in terms of achievable, technological advances required, and target market that it should probably be spun off into it's own company with it's own funding and resources... Not sharing and occupying the same financial and labor resources as a successful car manufacturer.

 

[Alan]

They haven’t announced a Plaid Cybertruck. That is speculation.

To me it doesn’t make sense to have a Plaid version which is $40,000 - 60,000+ more than the base version when every other Plaid model is about $20,000 more than the LR model. Unless you are suggesting the tri motor has morphed into a $100,000 base price quad motor. Which is quite a few steps away from affordable and a 42% increase from the $69k original pricing.

Edit: I do think a higher priced model is likely initially. Just feels like $120-130k is way out there.

I believe that’s about what the plaid S costs. To me the Cybertruck is a much more versatile vehicle.
the following may have just been a flippant remark.

 

[Ogre]

I believe that’s about what the plaid S costs. To me the Cybertruck is a much more versatile vehicle.
the following may have just been a flippant remark.

The base Model S costs $95,000. It is not remotely an “Affordable” car, it is a luxury car.

The base Cybertruck was announced at $40,000. The most expensive Cybertruck was much less expensive than the Model S LR when it was launched.

 

[anionic1]

The Optimus idea would dwarf vehicle sales if he pulls it off. It would revolutionise healthcare, industry, and household goods

A few years ago I was talking with friends about something wildly awesome. How much would people pay for a set of robotic arms rigged in their kitchen that would cook from scratch like a world class chef, set your table, and clean the kitchen at every meal? What if new homes had that as an option?

Or, you put clothes in the laundry area and when you come back it's all cleaned and folded.

That's a huge quality of life ambition. I know if something like that were to be developed over the next decade it would change my life. Then have that kind of tech in industry for janitorial jobs or road maintenance ... It's all about perspective.

I am not sold that removing humans involvement in maintaining and working to add value to society is a good thing. I think a huge amount of psychological and emotional problems in this world are from lack of purpose and a sense of pride in the part we play in society. Just wait until robots are doing everything for us and socialism has taken over to take care of people because they don’t need to add value anymore but still need to be valued. Not a world I want to live in. I am certain it would be better for society to get rid of a lot of our technology and work side by side with our hands more.

 

[Ogre]

I am not sold that removing humans involvement in maintaining and working to add value to society is a good thing. I think a huge amount of psychological and emotional problems in this world are from lack of purpose and a sense of pride in the part we play in society. Just wait until robots are doing everything for us and socialism has taken over to take care of people because they don’t need to add value anymore but still need to be valued. Not a world I want to live in. I am certain it would be better for society to get rid of a lot of our technology and work side by side with our hands more.

The sort of things which these bots can do are not the sort of things which instill a sense of pride in accomplishment.

Nobody comes home from McDonalds and brags about how many burgers they flip. It is a means to an end. It is exhausting and not rewarding.

What is concerning is what happens when the bot is flipping burgers and the people who need that work to pay bills are unemployed and can’t pay rent.

 

[Dusty]

I don't know what kind of household you and your friends live in.. But... Not sharing and occupying the same financial and labor resources as a successful car manufacturer.

Musk is always quite vocal in reminding people that Tesla isn't a car company. It's an energy and robotics company. The cars are just robots you sit in for transportation. His words not mine.

The thought regarding a domestic robot is that it would be purchased/financed as part of a home remodel. Not necessarily a stand alone purchase.

 

[ED_SFO]

Sounds like he/they have a lot on their plate and going through production hell with two new factories on different continents, the delay seems like the smart move. I'm sure the engineers will have this whole year to figure out how to make the CT more affordable. From the lack of enthusiasm regarding the CT from the call, sounds definitely like a end of 2024 timeline for an affordable CT.

 

[Alan]

The base Model S costs $95,000. It is not remotely an “Affordable” car, it is a luxury car.

The base Cybertruck was announced at $40,000. The most expensive Cybertruck was much less expensive than the Model S LR when it was launched.

If they wait till they can produce the cybertruck with the listed specs for 40000 we will never see it. It pains me also but that’s the way I see it.

 

[Dusty]

What is concerning is what happens when the bot is flipping burgers and the people who need that work to pay bills are unemployed and can’t pay rent.

I think that society is out of step with the world we've created. We're getting to the point where the unease we feel in talking about automation is the realization that our 1890s notion of work/personal fulfillment/societal needs is inadequate for the world we live in. We can't keep acting like the societal construct from 100 years ago is compatible with a world transitioning out of the industrial era.

The burger flipping robot is essentially here. We need to start dealing with the reality that comes from that.

 

[anionic1]

The sort of things which these bots can do are not the sort of things which instill a sense of pride in accomplishment.

Nobody comes home from McDonalds and brags about how many burgers they flip. It is a means to an end. It is exhausting and not rewarding.

What is concerning is what happens when the bot is flipping burgers and the people who need that work to pay bills are unemployed and can’t pay rent.

I worked at a restaurant for 5 years and it was the most rewarding job I ever had. Interacting with the customers at a restaurant doesn’t get much more social than that and I can’t imagine a more purposeful job than helping to feed a fellow human. McDonald’s isn’t a crap job because you just flip burgers it’s a crap job because they have made the business model, “cheap and fast”. They could already easily mechanize McDonald’s and get rid of all the humans but they know that’s not what people want so they are slowly moving towards it. The Tesla bot operating in a setting like a commercial kitchen is 100x more complicated than driving on the road and every single environmental setting will need tons of training. Just like FSD is taking years to drive on fairly standardized roads it will take even longer to train for the insane amount of different work environments. And if that’s the case and we are going to spend vast resources to train these bots to work in human environments to essentially take our place eventually, Tesla should get smart and say why don’t we skip the middle step of trying to make a bot to take humans place in McDonald’s kitchen and why don’t we start a robotics company that will just completely automate McDonald’s. Why have a robot take a human form to replace them rather than just change the process to be robotic in the most optimal form. It’s like saying hey lumber mill we will sell you 20 bits to come run your machinery for $2M. They will get it right 98% of the time. Or the lumber mill could just spend $2M and automate the machinery.

 

[Dusty]

I worked at a restaurant for 5 years and it was the most rewarding job I ever had... Why have a robot take a human form to replace them rather than just change the process to be robotic in the most optimal form. It’s like saying hey lumber mill we will sell you 20 bits to come run your machinery for $2M. They will get it right 98% of the time. Or the lumber mill could just spend $2M and automate the machinery.

McDonalds could replace everyone in the restaurant and only have a person at the front counter with a manager in the back, and no one would even notice the difference.

For sure McDonald's is working on it but they don't have the engineering/programming skills to do it in a meaningful manner. They do fast food not robotics.

 

[Ogre]

McDonalds could replace everyone in the restaurant and only have a person at the front counter with a manager in the back, and no one would even notice the difference.

For sure McDonald's is working on it but they don't have the engineering/programming skills to do it in a meaningful manner. They do fast food not robotics.

Most likely people would notice an improvement in food quality and faster service.

They’ve already eliminated or minimized the need for front counter employees at many locations with kiosks.

 

[Crissa]

The ads I'm getting today are hilarious. What did you guys talk about that generated these?

-Crissa

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