150-200 k Cybertrucks in 2024

[JBee]

Well if they use the Plaid motors, and spice them up just a little, they might get over 700hp out of a Dual motor CT.

Now if they only have a smaller and lighter 120kWh pack with that, we might get a CT under 6000lbs or so, meaning it would have a better power to weight ratio than a M3P. That's somewhere in the 3second 0-60 region.

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[Madaven818]

That's some math. It requires the 4680 ramp continue at the same curve and the trucks go at an astounding rate.

But... This month they're producing cells at a rate enough for <30K trucks annually. If they're having a smooth ramp, that will work out.

It would be mind boggling.

Math:
(30*0.32)+(1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)=
~<150K 500mi range trucks.

-Crissa

I’m a little bit out of the loop so forgive my naïveté…
Has it been confirmed that we are not receiving any Cybertruck cells from vendors?

 

[Madaven818]

Not everything works out in real life production as it does on paper or the spreadsheets.

You never know when the next war, hurricane, pandemic, recession, supplier constraint, strike, or invasion by Martians will happen.

It sounds like when you weigh all the various expert guesses on production/deliveries in 2024 and take a statistical pull it from your frunk estimate that 125,000 Cybertrucks wouldn't be too far off. However IMO the ramp in Jan, Feb and March will be a lot slower than when we get to Oct, Nov and December, so it could be only 30-40,000 in the 1st half of the year, and it really kicks in during the 2nd half.

I’m not gonna dare try to give a direct quote, but I think Elon said something to the effect of the ramp in production, only being as fast as the slowest to produce part. Sure we *might* get enough cells for that incredible volume. I can’t help but consider other parts that might come from other vendors. Not to mention all the in house stuff.
I think we’ll be lucky to clear 75 thousand next year

 

[Madaven818]

I would LOVE a 500 mile range Cybertruck. Love, love it.
And you can charge me $89,000 or so for it.

I just don't think the battery tech is there....without putting a humongous battery in the vehicle.
(I think they hoped to improve batteries to meet their promises, but it just didn't happen)

IMO the way the Cybertruck moves in the videos I have seen, it doesn't look like it has a 2500# battery in it.

**checks crystal ball**
I’m thinking we get DAMN close to 500 if not hit 500 & it’ll going to be at or below 80K

 

[PilotPete]

Well if they use the Plaid motors, and spice them up just a little, they might get over 700hp out of a Dual motor CT.

Now if they only have a smaller and lighter 120kWh pack with that, we might get a CT under 6000lbs or so, meaning it would have a better power to weight ratio than a M3P. That's somewhere in the 3second 0-60 region.

Under 6000# (or ~2727kg for our metric friends) might not be a good goal. For taxes, rapid depreciation is qualified by a vehicle 6k# or more.

 

[intimidator]

I’m not gonna dare try to give a direct quote, but I think Elon said something to the effect of the ramp in production, only being as fast as the slowest to produce part. Sure we *might* get enough cells for that incredible volume. I can’t help but consider other parts that might come from other vendors. Not to mention all the in house stuff.
I think we’ll be lucky to clear 75 thousand next year

You could be right, i.e. 75,000. With maybe 25,000 the first half of the year, and 50,000 the 2nd half?

If so, there will be a lot of disappointed buyers (waiting....waiting....waiting).

 

[JBee]

Under 6000# (or ~2727kg for our metric friends) might not be a good goal. For taxes, rapid depreciation is qualified by a vehicle 6k# or more.

Well ok fine, what's a few hundred pounds between friends? Diets suck anyway!

Anything under 4 seconds is rapid for a truck, so long the DM is faster than a Lightning, then I can at least drag cvalue13 with his Lightning.

 

[intimidator]

**checks crystal ball**
I’m thinking we get DAMN close to 500 if not hit 500 & it’ll going to be at or below 80K

I am going to hold you to it. LOL

If the dual motor is a long range (rumor has it the Tri-Motor will be a performance model with lower range) I do hope it is not 350-375 miles.

 

[Crissa]

I’m a little bit out of the loop so forgive my naïveté…
Has it been confirmed that we are not receiving any Cybertruck cells from vendors?

In that there are none that have been shown to be this far along with 4680s yet.

-Crissa

 

[Madaven818]

I am going to hold you to it. LOL

If the dual motor is a long range (rumor has it the Tri-Motor will be a performance model with lower range) I do hope it is not 350-375 miles.

Dude I totally agree, I hope we get a minimum of 450… but 375 wouldn’t hurt my feelings too much; I don’t see myself towing much of anything.

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