Coltpete

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Sharing this here:

Joe is still expecting a significant ramp up this year. Although things seem slow now, it's still likely we see non-FS this year especially as additional lines of production are put into operation.

His projected build rate also concides with my estimated time line of stopping the FS builds at Q2. Which would apparently be around 10k FS trucks made. Again all of this is speculation but additional informed viewpoints are worth sharing.
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Coltpete

Coltpete

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“Posted by greggertruck” 🤣

IMG_8400.jpeg


separately, am I reading right that he’s predicting >100K Cars built in 2024!?

IMG_8399.jpeg


@newwave1331 @scottf200 @bwilliam79 @JBee
Seems aggressive to me especially with how slow production on the Cyberbeast is but yes. With the caveat he will revisit this in February with updated information. But he is filming gigatexas every single day and is quite well connected to insiders.

I had a phone call with one of the part suppliers for the CT and they were told that Tesla at the beginning of this year expected to produce 80k trucks. This was apparently in order to ensure this supplier could produce enough parts to fill that manufacturing demand.
 

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“Posted by greggertruck” 🤣

IMG_8400.jpeg


separately, am I reading right that he’s predicting >100K Cars built in 2024!?

IMG_8399.jpeg


@newwave1331 @scottf200 @bwilliam79 @JBee
I read that as he's projecting ~80k deliveries by the end of December but there is one more data point beyond that showing 100k. That would seem to align with January 2025 based solely on the number of points on the line.

He has it at 12k/year run rate starting the year, which would translate to ~1,000 per month and that's looking unlikely for January.
 

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Seems aggressive to me especially with how slow production on the Cyberbeast is but yes. With the caveat he will revisit this in February with updated information. But he is filming gigatexas every single day and is quite well connected to insiders.

I had a phone call with one of the part suppliers for the CT and they were told that Tesla at the beginning of this year expected to produce 80k trucks. This was apparently in order to ensure this supplier could produce enough parts to fill that manufacturing demand.
80k Cybertruck’s by the end of 2024 is extremely optimistic for a new vehicle from a fairly new auto manufacturer. I am more conservative and predict under 50k units. I understand the second CT production line is still under construction.
 
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cvalue13

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I read that as he's projecting ~80k deliveries by the end of December but there is one more data point beyond that showing 100k. That would seem to align with January 2025 based solely on the number of points on the line.
now that I view the quarters, that makes sense

for what it’s worth, analyst consensus is below 40K


not sure who Joe *could* be talking to that suggests analysts are >2X off


but it’s damn sure not in virtue of his drone flights of the outbound lot
 

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My prediction is that Tesla will produce Cybertrucks at the rate they are able to. I'm a production guru so I know what I'm talking about. Total unit output will be in line with the unit count they are able to produce, that's the absolutely truth
 

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Cybertruck is anticipated to proceed at a slower pace than a typical ramp-up, which I believe will reach 5000 per week after the start of production.

Joe has about half of that output after 12 months. Seems reasonably conservative. Half the output after twice the time.

80,000 orders is a good start, but I think it is worth considering CT
may use more than 1 supplier for any given part, and suppliers I don't think are told everything. We could also have starting stock.

Overall, I think it will be closer to the 80+ than the 50's.
 

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All these predictions based on what?

100k for 2024? That is piperdream. Around 25k is the most.
Joe's projections were based on Tesla adding a second shift mid-year.

The chart shows 80k trucks by EOY. Still quite optimistic, but not outrageously so.
 


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Im with yall on a max output of 50k trucks in 2024.... at the ramp rate he shows, it would be about in the mid 50's assuming nothing much goes wrong. but If the changes he anticipates don't happen, then it maybe like the C8 and be 25k for the first year...
 

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I had a phone call with one of the part suppliers for the CT and they were told that Tesla at the beginning of this year expected to produce 80k trucks.
I wish we could ask a follow-up question

It’s most common for OEMs to over-order generally, and in particular, to to order not based on total expected units to be produced, but by ~1/3rd more to ensure adequate parts for maintenance stock, etc.
 
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Coltpete

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I wish we could ask a follow-up question

It’s most common for OEMs to over-order generally, and in particular, to to order not based on total expected units to be produced, but by ~1/3rd more to ensure adequate parts for maintenance stock, etc.
I could probably ask him a follow up question. I don't think I'd be giving out enough information to get anyone in trouble.

To clarify he said Tesla's internal projection was 80k for 2024. Not that they ordered 80k parts. Note also this was late last year when he spoke about that figure.
 
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cvalue13

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To clarify he said Tesla's internal projection was 80k for 2024. Not that they ordered 80k parts. Note also this was late last year when he spoke about that figure.
therein is the possible (not saying likely, but possible) miscommunication

Tesla can say eg “we expect to need parts for 80k Cybertruck’s next year” and people incorrectly hear “we expect to built 80k saleable units next year”

they can instead mean we need parts for 80k trucks, meaning they need 80k parts for an expected build of eg 40k saleable units
 

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Yes, all of that, then it gets worse if we add into the mix Elon's statement of possibly 125K? or so for 2024. or perhaps he meant we scale to that figure by the end of 24.
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