4860 wild ___ speculation

Tinker71

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This is just a theory, but I think Tesla must be further along on the battery production than some give them credit OR they have a back up plan. With Berlin and Austin geared up to spit out model Y in the fall/early with 4860 structural packs Tesla has a plan to make things come together. With that kind of production capacity they can't be relying on the pilot plant alone. Did they start making 4860 in Nevada? We don't hear a lot about Nevada. Maybe they are really good about keeping secrets in Nevada.

So either Tesla must be very confident that machines to make the batteries are designed correctly and on order for delivery in October/mass production in November or they can make a semi structural pack out of 18650s or 2170 that will work in the Y and CT.

The18650 and 2170 are still awesome batteries. It may have been slightly strategic of Tesla to roll out the Plaid with 18650 to prove that point. Message sent "if you get a pre 4860 Tesla of any model you are still getting a great vehicle"

It is a bit of a long shot, but would you take a CT1/2 with 18650 batteries if they delivered in December/January? With a 160mm deep battery area maybe Tesla has a plan to build an interim battery pack. That is a lot of volume to build a battery pack with structural properties. If everything else stayed the same they could convert the lines to 4860 when the batteries are available.....and roll out the CT3 around then.

The pieces that need to come together of an overnight switch to 4860 is mind boggling. An interim pack could really ease that transition.
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Ranulf

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CT will be delayed until 4680 cells are ready. They won’t make it without them.

Model S Plaid + was supposed to use the 4680 and the fact that it was cancelled does not bode well. I and many others suspect that it was cancelled because they are still having issues producing quality 4680 cells consistently and in quantity.

We will have to see how long it takes for the first Model Ys to roll off the line at Austin.
 

jerhenderson

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CT will be delayed until 4680 cells are ready. They won’t make it without them.

Model S Plaid + was supposed to use the 4680 and the fact that it was cancelled does not bode well. I and many others suspect that it was cancelled because they are still having issues producing quality 4680 cells consistently and in quantity.

We will have to see how long it takes for the first Model Ys to roll off the line at Austin.
Or, the Plaid + was cancelled as the 'regular' plaid is already the world's fastest production car ? As Elon said, there is no need.
 

GnarlyDudeLive

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Or, the Plaid + was cancelled as the 'regular' plaid is already the world's fastest production car ? As Elon said, there is no need.
I would agree with this statement. Tesla might be waiting until they get one-upped before doing a Plaid+ just to know where they need to take it to next. Not to mention that every battery in the Plaid+ (assuming 4680's) would be cannibalizing a CT truck of its batteries. Speculation: In addition they may also be lacking the resources to implement the needed changes to accept the redesign of the pack and the car itself to support the dimensional changes, etc. required.

I could see it as resources better spent elsewhere sort of scenario. Especially from a board of directors. =P

Elon needs to spin off a separate company in the likes of a Shelby or Hennessy for things such as a Plaid+. Then he could have his cake and eat it too. =)
 
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myco.rrhizae

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We don't hear a lot about Nevada.
I was thinking about this the other day ~ whats up with Giga Nevada??

When we first heard about it it was super hyped like 'the largest building by footprint ever' and all that (elon sure loves his superlatives).

they just stalled development a quarter of the way through building the thing. with battery production being the bottleneck, why arent more resources going into following through on that?
 

CyberMoose

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The18650 and 2170 are still awesome batteries. It may have been slightly strategic of Tesla to roll out the Plaid with 18650 to prove that point. Message sent "if you get a pre 4860 Tesla of any model you are still getting a great vehicle"
An upcoming improvement would be the only thing that would delay my order for my Cybertruck. If Tesla announced for any reason that they wouldn't put 4860 cells into the CT until 2023, I would wait till 2023. Even if it's not the biggest improvement in the world, waiting a few more months to make sure I have their most up to date technology is worth it to me.

I know that once I get the Cybertruck, it won't be more than a few years before the new and improved stuff comes out, whether that's a new design, new hardware to increase software performance, or a new battery. I just know that I don't want to be one of the people that recieve one of the last orders before the big switch to something new. I just need Tesla to do their best to make sure whatever they upgrade to in the future, that it'll still fit in my truck so I can take it in to get switched if it's a big enough improvement. My biggest desire for an upgrade to the CT, even if it's 10+ years away, is a solid state battery.
 

akcoyote

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As this is a pure speculation thread, I will put in my $0.0005 worth. :sneaky:

To me it appears that Giga Austin is about 3-4 months from trial production of Model Y. The 4680 cell manufacturing portion of the plant appears more like 8-10 months from initial production and the "Bobcat Project" area (lithium hydroxide and cathode plant) looks like well over a year away.

It has been stated (somewhere) that Panasonic will be converting one of their battery cell lines at Giga Nevada to produce 4680s. However the last info I noticed on that is Panasonic had not figured out how to mass produce 4680s.

IF Giga Austin starts producing CTs before the battery cell facility there is operational, the cells would have to be shipped from California. But the Fremont pilot plant is supposed to provide 4680s for initial Giga Berlin production. This leads me to believe that both the CT and Semi will not start production until Giga Austin can produce 4680s at scale.

Considering all the above, it seems that CT production could be delayed well beyond the finishing of the shell of Giga Austin and installation of equipment. :(:mad:
 

rr6013

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Did they start making 4860 in Nevada?
Tesla doesn’t have a plan — doesn’t needs one. PLAID confirms Tesla battery just works. Everyone who signed up for a CT, signed on for an early first version. Everyone knows the battery was not specified in the launch. Tesla was up front that it was working on battery, battery range and affordable battery at reduced cost.

Tesla is not seeing a need for a range of more than 400 miles anymore. That’s ground-truth over Cybertruck narrative. ~THUMP…thump! That’s the sound Cybertruck makes running over magical realism. Cybertruck don’t care!

Real automotive companies ship! (SteveJobs). Tesla can LFP a CT1 or CT2 it’s a truck. CT3 is all about that range!(nod to “All About that Bass”). CT3 is 500 miles. How by doublestack 18650’s, 2170’s or modular add-in Powerwalls in the bed; who cares! It’s a truck. Configure a number of options for those who do care how. Tesla’s job#1 is to deliver Cybertrucks.

RANGE is King. Tesla is the best at it.
 
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Tinker71

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Tesla doesn’t have a plan — doesn’t needs one. PLAID confirms Tesla battery just works. Everyone who signed up for a CT, signed on for an early first version. Everyone knows the battery was not specified in the launch. Tesla was up front that it was working on battery, battery range and affordable battery at reduced cost.

Tesla is not seeing a need for a range of more than 400 miles anymore. That’s ground-truth over Cybertruck narrative. ~THUMP…thump! That’s the sound Cybertruck makes running over magical realism. Cybertruck don’t care!

Real automotive companies ship! (SteveJobs). Tesla can LFP a CT1 or CT2 it’s a truck. CT3 is all about that range!(nod to “All About that Bass”). CT3 is 500 miles. How by doublestack 18650’s, 2170’s or modular add-in Powerwalls in the bed; who cares! It’s a truck. Configure a number of options for those who do care how. Tesla’s job#1 is to deliver Cybertrucks.

RANGE is King. Tesla is the best at it.
 
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Tinker71

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I agree. The CT1/2 may have a different battery than the CT3. Now that my dyslexia has been brought to light, you could double stack the 2170 as well. The structure is really a hybrid of the Exoskeleton, the mega casting and the battery pack. I don't see that a structural battery pack necessarily means that it cannot be replaced or upgraded. The batteries just have to support themselves and have enough connection points to provide some residual strength back to the exoskeleton and castings and tie everything together. My theory is that the battery cavity will stay the same so they don't have to reengineer the whole truck.

That is my hope anyway so my CT2 batteries can be upgraded in 5-8 years. Maybe even skip a generation of batteries.

After all at battery day Elon did say it would be at least 3 years before everything was realized. I think we may have been over optimistic to think the CT would get the 4680.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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Range is king. I do not care so much which batteries are in the structural battery pack as long as the CT3 gets 500+ miles per charge. I would prefer the 4680 cells for all their benefits but range is the determining factor for me.
 
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