7/19 CT Production Rumors

[VolklKatana]

As I've done in the past, here are some speculative rumors from accounts that I follow on social media, and for whatever reason, I feel have some credence.

Todays rumors for everyone wild speculation and consideration.









Feel free to believe these rumors, get excited about them, dismiss, criticize...whatever!

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[FutureBoy]

Feel free to believe these rumors, get excited about them, dismiss, criticize...whatever!

Done. I'm feeling free.

 

[tmeyer3]

Yes plz!

 

[CyberGus]

Technically, they already started Model Y production (castings). Still needs a few more parts tho

 

[nitrohuck]

Technically, they already started Model Y production (castings). Still needs a few more parts tho

^^^ This... Their casting machines on site are for the model Y, we have already seen numerous test batches (or actual batches?) of rear castings sitting around on the site.

I do not believe they will start with the CT, as much as I wish it were true... all indicators are pointing to MY being first off the line, but maybe, just maybe, the CT won't be all too far behind.

 

[LDRHAWKE]

Has the big casting machine, for what I have assumed for the Cybertruck, even been delivered to Austin yet?

 

[Ogre]

If they could get things lines up, it would make sense for Tesla to start producing the Cybertruck first. The tri-motor Cybertruck is $20,000 more expensive than the Model Y and likely has bigger margins. That said, there are still things which don't mesh.

The 8k gigapress isn't set up yet, and the 6k gigapress is set up for the Model Y currently because we've seen them stacking up cast rear ends).

Anyone know how hard it is to retool that thing?

I'm sure Tesla would absolutely love to smash the original deadline for Cybertruck production, and if they could beat Rivian to production, that would be a huge coup. The missing or misconfigured gigapress is the big question mark in my eyes.

 

[CyberGus]

Making a CyberTruck is easy compared to the MY. No paint, a little origami, slap it on the skateboard and you're done.

Oh...plus 1,000 of the 4680 cells. Each. AFAIK, no one is making the new cell in production volumes yet.

 

[tmeyer3]

Has the big casting machine, for what I have assumed for the Cybertruck, even been delivered to Austin yet?

I haven't seen it yet, so unless they're very sneaky with a 8000 ton press...

 

[VolklKatana]

I think we will see the new press soon, there is a reason they suddenly got very busy on the second half of the press area. For all we know, the rest of the line is already done in Fremont and has already started to be shipped to Texas....things could move very fast once we see that press!

 

[SAVFPV]

I love rumors which would benefit me! Let’s shoot for the launch to be on my birthday in October. Would be awesome!

Could I add the theory that the first 4680 structural pack we saw being signed “4 Elon” in another post is actually going to be for the first CT S/N 0001 which will roll off the line for Elon’s personal use? Could be possible!?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I think we will see the new press soon, there is a reason they suddenly got very busy on the second half of the press area. For all we know, the rest of the line is already done in Fremont and has already started to be shipped to Texas....things could move very fast once we see that press!

In a recent Jeff video he showed markings on the ground inside the new gigapress area and that is very likely for a new pad. We gotta have pads before the press arrives or it sits in boxes like the first one did. Tesla could build prototyps w/o the 8K ton gigapress but they cannot go into production without it.

I cannot see any scenario where the CT goes into production before the MY, especially since Mr. Musk said that the MY would be first all along. Yes, they both depend on the 4680 cells an SBP.

Those rumors don't seem very well informed. I'd ignore those sources going forward. Surely you can find better rumors (as much as I would like to see the CT manufactured earlier than later). Just watch the GigaAustin videos every day and you will probably be able to fathom for yourself when things are going to happen.

 

[Crissa]

The only thing I could see would be if Tesla is constrained on some part that is in the Y but not Cybertruck.

They also lose more face not getting the Cybertruck out this year, but staffing is not usually a constraint; so there's little reason they would have to choose between the different production lines.

-Crissa

 

[SpaceYooper]

Those rumors don't seem very well informed. I'd ignore those sources going forward. Surely you can find better rumors (as much as I would like to see the CT manufactured earlier than later). Just watch the GigaAustin videos every day and you will probably be able to fathom for yourself when things are going to happen.

Concur. Those assuming deliveries this year must also be assuming all the on/off road testing was done with the 1 (maybe 2) trucks we've seen staged at events. Won't some testing be done with trucks coming off the new factory line (I sure hope so). Didn't EM also say employees would get theirs first? I don't think the first consumer delivery or pick up will be until next summer.

 

[Ogre]

The only thing I could see would be if Tesla is constrained on some part that is in the Y but not Cybertruck.

Getting the Cybertruck out the door before Ford and Chevy would be a huge win. (Rivian seems unlikely). Getting another Model Y production line started up is nice, but not nearly as important.

So if they are constrained on a part which is required for both the Y and the Cybertruck, I think the Cybertruck will likely take priority. (because they know I'm waiting on it damn it) The most likely culprit would be the battery supply.

If supply of 4860 cells is really tight, I think they would release the Cybertruck first. Big competitive advantage there.

Obviously if they have plenty of supply, no reason to not get the Y out there!

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