All things factored in

Bkent100

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Ordered the tri motor with all options two weeks ago, given all the variables (cancellations, production output, ordering higher end model) what is rough estimate of delivery year.





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Bkent100

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Ordered the tri motor with all options two weeks ago, given all the variables (cancellations, production output, ordering higher end model) what is rough estimate of delivery year.
I had to laugh out loud at this.

How many products have you seen where someone asks for an estimate of delivery **year**?

As someone said, it's all up in the air right now, but I suspect all existing pre-orders will be complete sometime in 2023 and they will be making normal deliveries before Christmas 2023.

The spreadsheet is filled with all kinds of assumptions.
 

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Thanks, already done that and it spit out august 2024. Didn’t think spreadsheet factored in cancellations…
Again, so many wildcards to account for but of the 1 million + reservations I am accounting for nearly 600k of actual net reservations excluding the duplicate reservations some have made.

That being said, how fast can Austin ramp up? Tesla has said before that they anticipate 250k-300k of peak production per year. Let's say that only a handful of CTs come out in 2021. Ramping will be slow for the first part of 2022 due to the many new aspects of the CT manufacturing so I am only predicting 75k -100k for all of 2022. I think 2023 will bring us 200k and 2024 will be 250k-300k full ramp.

Historically Tesla has pushed out the higher tier model out first with the mid-tier shortly after. I think it's safe to say that the lower demand for the single motor will be pushed back into 2023.

My best guess for you since you just created your reservation is the 2nd half of 2023.
 
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Bkent100

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Again, so many wildcards to account for but of the 1 million + reservations I am accounting for nearly 600k of actual net reservations excluding the duplicate reservations some have made.

That being said, how fast can Austin ramp up? Tesla has said before that they anticipate 250k-300k of peak production per year. Let's say that only a handful of CTs come out in 2021. Ramping will be slow for the first part of 2022 due to the many new aspects of the CT manufacturing so I am only predicting 75k -100k for all of 2022. I think 2023 will bring us 200k and 2024 will be 250k-300k full ramp.

Historically Tesla has pushed out the higher tier model out first with the mid-tier shortly after. I think it's safe to say that the lower demand for the single motor will be pushed back into 2023.

My best guess for you since you just created your reservation is the 2nd half of 2023.
Great analysis…. Hope your timeline comes true!!!
 

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