Yup.Unless something goes off the rails, there’ll almost surely be “delivery” of late-stage validation units to Tesla insiders
as for saleable units to outside “customers,” who knows
the optimistic still think there’ll be as many as 10,000 retail units delivered in 2023
the pessimistic will point out that in the past it’s been up to 4 months between the insider delivery event and first retail production
by nature I lean pessimistic, as I prefer one sort of surprise over the other
I don’t know, bro, maybe because the faster they get 1,000 out in 2023 means they’re on the way to ramping earlier in 2024.Yup.
Also, Elon has repeatedly said that mass production won't happen until 2024. So who cares if Tesla sells 10 CTs or 1,000 in 2023. It doesn't matter. What does matter is how quickly they can ramp up the production.
Work out the kinks and start pumping them out. I'm expecting mine sometime in the summer of '25.
Being skeptical of my skepticism makes total sense. And your stated view wouldn’t be among those I’d say are erroring instead toward unrealistic optimism.Some of what @cvalue13 says makes sense, but a lot of it, as he says, is pessimism. The number of CTs that will be built this calendar year? They made 100 in 3 weeks and it isn’t even September and, as all know, the CT isn’t certified yet. Yes, it makes sense that Tesla could make several thousand CTs by the end of the year. @cvalue13 says that the first N CTs will go to ‘insiders’. If you add employees and locals to that list it follows history and makes sense. But does that cover all of them? Maybe.
I am 100% certain that the first 100 will be chopped up. I was really talking about Teslas ability to build the trucks and about their ability to ramp once they iron out some bugs.Being skeptical of my skepticism makes total sense. And your stated view wouldn’t be among those I’d say are erroring instead toward unrealistic optimism.
Maybe I’d still offer a few clarifications to scope the source and extent of my skepticism:
if I read your comments right, it seems you’re suggesting the possibility that the 100 built so far could possibly be saleable units? That these 100 may be among those delivered to insiders?
because if that is part of your calculation, I’d think you might recalculate.
zero of the 100 built so far are saleable units. They aren’t even the units that come before the saleable units. Few will ever even see a public road, much less be given to insiders, and certainly not arms-length customers.
further, for all we know, the 100 built so far are a single model/motor variant, and Tesla hasn’t started or only just started attempting to create RC1s of the other model variant.
(and, while it’s almost irrelevant to the point, maybe helpful to point out they’ve not been building RCs in Texas for 3 weeks, but since the first week of July, or 9 weeks; and not one of them have yet to be built a majority on the volume production line.)
At and from the delivery event, they may have built a few hundred of these validation units, and THEN begins the process and time involved of transitioning towards building saleable units on the high volume production line. That is the 4 month gap I referenced.
all of which is the bases of saying the conservative case entails as much as 4 months between the delivery event and first production of saleable units.
which even if the delivery event was tomorrow, would put first saleable production not until early/mid-December to *begin* the ramp of the volume production line. .
could be less/sooner I’m quick to admit (and hope), but instead only that no one should leave room for surprise or disappointment if it’s that long.