Any chance for customer delivery in 2023?

[isfopkd]

The latest order I've seen is 2024 in summer... Any chance to see people get the cybertruck this year?

Sponsored

 

[cvalue13]

Unless something goes off the rails, there’ll almost surely be “delivery” of late-stage validation units to Tesla insiders

as for saleable units to outside “customers,” who knows

the optimistic still think there’ll be as many as 10,000 retail units delivered in 2023

the pessimistic will point out that in the past it’s been up to 4 months between the insider delivery event and first retail production

by nature I lean pessimistic, as I prefer one sort of surprise over the other

 

[CyberGus]

 

[CyberGus]

by nature I lean pessimistic, as I prefer one sort of surprise over the other

I think I might be a pessimist

because I hate it when I’m right

 

[Gurule92]

I think I might be a pessimist

because I hate it when I’m right

I think I might be an optimist.

Because I love when others are wrong

 

[Arctic_White]

Unless something goes off the rails, there’ll almost surely be “delivery” of late-stage validation units to Tesla insiders

as for saleable units to outside “customers,” who knows

the optimistic still think there’ll be as many as 10,000 retail units delivered in 2023

the pessimistic will point out that in the past it’s been up to 4 months between the insider delivery event and first retail production

by nature I lean pessimistic, as I prefer one sort of surprise over the other

Yup.

Also, Elon has repeatedly said that mass production won't happen until 2024. So who cares if Tesla sells 10 CTs or 1,000 in 2023. It doesn't matter. What does matter is how quickly they can ramp up the production.

Work out the kinks and start pumping them out. I'm expecting mine sometime in the summer of '25.

 

[Cybertruck Tampa]

Yup.

Also, Elon has repeatedly said that mass production won't happen until 2024. So who cares if Tesla sells 10 CTs or 1,000 in 2023. It doesn't matter. What does matter is how quickly they can ramp up the production.

Work out the kinks and start pumping them out. I'm expecting mine sometime in the summer of '25.

I don’t know, bro, maybe because the faster they get 1,000 out in 2023 means they’re on the way to ramping earlier in 2024.

Some of y’all need to chillax. Take a few deep breaths…..

 

[BeastSlayer]

I am with @cvalue13 on the 10,000.

After the VIPs and the employees, there ought to be leftover for us peons.

I reserved on the night of the launch and my trim seems on the priority production.

On the optimistic side, best case for me is 1st quarter 2024. Now I regret that my son left Tesla.

But am sure to be posting here every 5 minutes of the photos of my CT, driving, testing it and making it climb a wall in case I get it in the following months or so.

 

[Mini2nut]

I predict 1-2k Cybertruck deliveries before the end of the year.

We are getting close. I am curious if EPA testing has been completed.

This might be what Tesla is waiting on before announcing a date for the Cybertruck Delivery Day livestream event. Without official EPA certification no trucks can be retailed. Rivian faced the same delay before they could deliver their brand new R1T pickup to Rivian employees and suppliers.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I think of myself as common sense realist. If it makes sense in context that is what I go with. Some of what @cvalue13 says makes sense, but a lot of it, as he says, is pessimism. The number of CTs that will be built this calendar year? They made 100 in 3 weeks and it isn’t even September and, as all know, the CT isn’t certified yet. Yes, it makes sense that Tesla could make several thousand CTs by the end of the year. @cvalue13 says that the first N CTs will go to ‘insiders’. If you add employees and locals to that list it follows history and makes sense. But does that cover all of them? Maybe. Like he said, no one knows, so maybe some will go to non-insider reservation holders. What Elon said is surely true, that they will hit volume production in 2024 so the big question is how quickly will they ramp? Given that they made 100 in 3 weeks I think that when they resolve the build issues they will be able to ramp quickly. That is my point of view for what it is worth. I am thinking that they could hit 5,000/week by June with a total somewhere near 100,000 by this time 2024.

 

[cvalue13]

Some of what @cvalue13 says makes sense, but a lot of it, as he says, is pessimism. The number of CTs that will be built this calendar year? They made 100 in 3 weeks and it isn’t even September and, as all know, the CT isn’t certified yet. Yes, it makes sense that Tesla could make several thousand CTs by the end of the year. @cvalue13 says that the first N CTs will go to ‘insiders’. If you add employees and locals to that list it follows history and makes sense. But does that cover all of them? Maybe.

Being skeptical of my skepticism makes total sense. And your stated view wouldn’t be among those I’d say are erroring instead toward unrealistic optimism.

Maybe I’d still offer a few clarifications to scope the source and extent of my skepticism:

if I read your comments right, it seems you’re suggesting the possibility that the 100 built so far could possibly be saleable units? That these 100 may be among those delivered to insiders?

because if that is part of your calculation, I’d think you might recalculate.

zero of the 100 built so far are saleable units. They aren’t even the units that come before the saleable units. Few will ever even see a public road, much less be given to insiders, and certainly not arms-length customers.

further, for all we know, the 100 built so far are a single model/motor variant, and Tesla hasn’t started or only just started attempting to create RC1s of the other model variant.

(and, while it’s almost irrelevant to the point, maybe helpful to point out they’ve not been building RCs in Texas for 3 weeks, but since the first week of July, or 9 weeks; and not one of them have yet to be built a majority on the volume production line.)

At and from the delivery event, they may have built a few hundred of these validation units, and THEN begins the process and time involved of transitioning towards building saleable units on the high volume production line. That is the 4 month gap I referenced.

all of which is the bases of saying the conservative case entails as much as 4 months between the delivery event and first production of saleable units.

which even if the delivery event was tomorrow, would put first saleable production not until early/mid-December to *begin* the ramp of the volume production line. .

could be less/sooner I’m quick to admit (and hope), but instead only that no one should leave room for surprise or disappointment if it’s that long.

 

[CyberGus]

... I’d say are erroring instead toward unrealistic optimism.

I prefer "irrational exuberance"

 

[cvalue13]

I prefer "irrational exuberance"

True true

exuberance does appear to have claimed a few member’s reason-giblet

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Being skeptical of my skepticism makes total sense. And your stated view wouldn’t be among those I’d say are erroring instead toward unrealistic optimism.

Maybe I’d still offer a few clarifications to scope the source and extent of my skepticism:

if I read your comments right, it seems you’re suggesting the possibility that the 100 built so far could possibly be saleable units? That these 100 may be among those delivered to insiders?

because if that is part of your calculation, I’d think you might recalculate.

zero of the 100 built so far are saleable units. They aren’t even the units that come before the saleable units. Few will ever even see a public road, much less be given to insiders, and certainly not arms-length customers.

further, for all we know, the 100 built so far are a single model/motor variant, and Tesla hasn’t started or only just started attempting to create RC1s of the other model variant.

(and, while it’s almost irrelevant to the point, maybe helpful to point out they’ve not been building RCs in Texas for 3 weeks, but since the first week of July, or 9 weeks; and not one of them have yet to be built a majority on the volume production line.)

At and from the delivery event, they may have built a few hundred of these validation units, and THEN begins the process and time involved of transitioning towards building saleable units on the high volume production line. That is the 4 month gap I referenced.

all of which is the bases of saying the conservative case entails as much as 4 months between the delivery event and first production of saleable units.

which even if the delivery event was tomorrow, would put first saleable production not until early/mid-December to *begin* the ramp of the volume production line. .

could be less/sooner I’m quick to admit (and hope), but instead only that no one should leave room for surprise or disappointment if it’s that long.

I am 100% certain that the first 100 will be chopped up. I was really talking about Teslas ability to build the trucks and about their ability to ramp once they iron out some bugs.

you are not a skeptic, you are downright negative.

Sponsored