Battle of the Giga factories

[Tinker71]

I watched the latest Berlin drone video. A couple things really struck me in comparison to the Giga Texas video. I had assumed that the giga factories were more similar. I could not be more wrong. Some of the differences can be attributed to regional construction and product mix but I think they also have different strategies on top of that.

I think Tesla is going to study the heck out of the efficiencies of the last 3 factories and decide which to copy or to make a new design. They are quite different.

Berlin
Fewer cars - car pool/mass transit to work for workers
Less concrete more metal sandwich panel construction - generally lighter weight construction
More truck docks
Varied stories on main building
More buildings for different functions?
More function over fashion architecture


Austin
Tons of personal vehicles
Precast and very heavy construction
Less truck docks
3 levels on main building
More vertically integrated
Architecture - sleeker global headquarters feel


Holly shit. Tesla just pulled off 4 giga factories in 4 years. These campuses are massive and there is tremendous room to grow at 4 of them. The pace of construction is the same as during the main building construction. The footprint for 4 million EV vehicles per year is in place now not forecast for 2026 etc.

If the world economy is reasonably sound, Tesla is going to explode in a good way.



https://insideevs.com/news/600249/tesla-giga-berlin-upgrade-colors/

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[CyberGus]

The difference in parking is just US vs. Europe. In 'Merica, public transportation is for poor people.

The Austin GF has docks covering virtually the entire west side, with many of them covered over (future use?).

 

[Ogre]

Also building materials and other design elements are almost certainly based on availability of materials and local building code. I think what Tesla cares about isn’t how people get in and out or what the shell is build from, they care about what happens inside.

Hell… they build cars in a literal tent.

 

[JBee]

Building code means Berlin will have fairly strict insulation and energy efficiency criteria to meet, hence insulated sandwich panel construction. Also energy costs play a roll in building design as does local climate.

These costs automatically reflect construction materials used as its a trade off between ROI on capex vs operational costs. In Austin they bought the land with the existing concrete works there etc, so local availability is also an optimisation that every half decent architecture firm will do.

I'm not sure how much of the planning, building and construction is done by Tesla in house, except for that they will produce a floor plan and specifications for manufacturing and office floor space required, and the local architecture firm handles the rest including local building code, construction supervision etc.

 

[charliemagpie]

Shanghai is tracking 1.2 million right now.

Nearby factory 400,000 likely end of next year. Potential 1.6 million end of 24.

Germany, 1 million, end of 24.

Fremont, 800,000.

Austin, 1.5 million.

End 24.... about 5 million.

And we could be seeing major ramping of new products around that time.. with their own estimates, which we haven't accounted for.

Also, by then, we could be near the completion of a new factory, maybe 2.

 

[rr6013]

I watched the latest Berlin drone video. A couple things really struck me in comparison to the Giga Texas video. I had assumed that the giga factories were more similar. I could not be more wrong. Some of the differences can be attributed to regional construction and product mix but I think they also have different strategies on top of that.

I think Tesla is going to study the heck out of the efficiencies of the last 3 factories and decide which to copy or to make a new design. They are quite different.

Berlin
Fewer cars - car pool/mass transit to work for workers
Less concrete more metal sandwich panel construction - generally lighter weight construction
More truck docks
Varied stories on main building
More buildings for different functions?
More function over fashion architecture


Austin
Tons of personal vehicles
Precast and very heavy construction
Less truck docks
3 levels on main building
More vertically integrated
Architecture - sleeker global headquarters feel


Holly shit. Tesla just pulled off 4 giga factories in 4 years. These campuses are massive and there is tremendous room to grow at 4 of them. The pace of construction is the same as during the main building construction. The footprint for 4 million EV vehicles per year is in place now not forecast for 2026 etc.

If the world economy is reasonably sound, Tesla is going to explode in a good way.



https://insideevs.com/news/600249/tesla-giga-berlin-upgrade-colors/

These are Giga factories Tesla wears around its neck - bling. As Elon said they burn massive volumes of cash. Irrespective, differences in siting, design, engineering and geo-political environ, they all share “SPACE”. Lots of it, mostly under one roof and linear room to “drag race“ production from bare parts to fully assembled BEV in under 13hrs. That’s burning an electric mile to $62k(12hr*( 60- (60/4) )) figuring 1 car every 4min. perpetual continuous assembly after SOP first car takes 13 hrs.
MASSIVE $33.4MM/day at potentially 24% avg. profit ~$8M/line/day on a good day!

Pandemic, pox endemic and shortages of Natgas, water, electricity, and supply chain disruption is easy to calculate the cost of a $2 circuitboard from South Korea, or global warming impact on Tesla ability to operate, much less profit.
War reaches European NATO countries Berlin is off line.
US enters UKN conflict Texas is a very Big MACHINE to build war “stuff”.

Elon is back channeling CHN to communicate to RUS a plan. It may involve SpaceX tech-transfer, Starlink co-share, Neuralink JV and geo-sat signal feeds to secure the 8 gaps rather than burn-to-hell everything in between. That is so last century. And the planet hasn’t the luxury to self-emolate thru global warming an untimely wars. A war that can never win back time, lives and treasury even if to the victor go the spoils. The reality its stops here or we burn in global warming the last vestiges of a chance to stop AGW.

Tesla doesn’t survive. No one is left unscathed. Better to secure the Peace than fight to the death.

 

[JBee]

These are Giga factories Tesla wears around its neck - bling. As Elon said they burn massive volumes of cash. Irrespective, differences in siting, design, engineering and geo-political environ, they all share “SPACE”. Lots of it, mostly under one roof and linear room to “drag race“ production from bare parts to fully assembled BEV in under 13hrs. That’s burning an electric mile to $62k(12hr*( 60- (60/4) )) figuring 1 car every 4min. perpetual continuous assembly after SOP first car takes 13 hrs.
MASSIVE $33.4MM/day at potentially 24% avg. profit ~$8M/line/day on a good day!

Pandemic, pox endemic and shortages of Natgas, water, electricity, and supply chain disruption is easy to calculate the cost of a $2 circuitboard from South Korea, or global warming impact on Tesla ability to operate, much less profit.
War reaches European NATO countries Berlin is off line.
US enters UKN conflict Texas is a very Big MACHINE to build war “stuff”.

Elon is back channeling CHN to communicate to RUS a plan. It may involve SpaceX tech-transfer, Starlink co-share, Neuralink JV and geo-sat signal feeds to secure the 8 gaps rather than burn-to-hell everything in between. That is so last century. And the planet hasn’t the luxury to self-emolate thru global warming an untimely wars. A war that can never win back time, lives and treasury even if to the victor go the spoils. The reality its stops here or we burn in global warming the last vestiges of a chance to stop AGW.

Tesla doesn’t survive. No one is left unscathed. Better to secure the Peace than fight to the death.

But we need war to justify more fiat currency creation to hold up the ever thinning financial bubble.

The way its going there won't be enough global economic activity to reach the global warming predictions.

I fear the collapse will be brought about by the lack of affordability, because of excess cash to pay excess debt. But not by war. War is a money making machine than stimulates economic activity to the max, always has been, and its not from what is left the victor, it's through products and services provided to the war effort. Its what pulled the US out of the great depression, and kept it afloat so far. Sadly it is simply a part of doing business.

 

[Tinker71]

These are Giga factories Tesla wears around its neck - bling. As Elon said they burn massive volumes of cash. Irrespective, differences in siting, design, engineering and geo-political environ, they all share “SPACE”. Lots of it, mostly under one roof and linear room to “drag race“ production from bare parts to fully assembled BEV in under 13hrs. That’s burning an electric mile to $62k(12hr*( 60- (60/4) )) figuring 1 car every 4min. perpetual continuous assembly after SOP first car takes 13 hrs.
MASSIVE $33.4MM/day at potentially 24% avg. profit ~$8M/line/day on a good day!

Pandemic, pox endemic and shortages of Natgas, water, electricity, and supply chain disruption is easy to calculate the cost of a $2 circuitboard from South Korea, or global warming impact on Tesla ability to operate, much less profit.
War reaches European NATO countries Berlin is off line.
US enters UKN conflict Texas is a very Big MACHINE to build war “stuff”.

Elon is back channeling CHN to communicate to RUS a plan. It may involve SpaceX tech-transfer, Starlink co-share, Neuralink JV and geo-sat signal feeds to secure the 8 gaps rather than burn-to-hell everything in between. That is so last century. And the planet hasn’t the luxury to self-emolate thru global warming an untimely wars. A war that can never win back time, lives and treasury even if to the victor go the spoils. The reality its stops here or we burn in global warming the last vestiges of a chance to stop AGW.

Tesla doesn’t survive. No one is left unscathed. Better to secure the Peace than fight to the death.

That is a lot to take in. Natural Gas to Berlin could be a major problem for profit. - More focus on Texas model Y production could be bad for CT.

 

[Sirfun]

It's called diversification. I see lots of conversation about 4 giga factories. But you all are forgetting Giga-Nevada. With more automation they can make use of all that floor space. One other thing that surprises me, is how little conversation about the Semi in these comments. The plan has always been to ramp up production of the Semi in Austin.
With all these Giga factories the sound of massive furnaces burning money, will evolve into the sound of massive printing presses printing MONEY!!!!

 

[Ogre]

It's called diversification. I see lots of conversation about 4 giga factories. But you all are forgetting Giga-Nevada. With more automation they can make use of all that floor space. One other thing that surprises me, is how little conversation about the Semi in these comments. The plan has always been to ramp up production of the Semi in Austin.
With all these Giga factories the sound of massive furnaces burning money, will evolve into the sound of massive printing presses printing MONEY!!!!

Hmm, I thought most of the Semi manufacturing was to be in Nevada. I seem to recall some facilities being built there with that purpose.

The semi is going to be a whole other kind of assembly line than the Cybertruck. Cybertruck production will be like a rapid fire machine gun. Semi more like a bazooka. Volume is going to be orders of magnitude different.

 

[Tinker71]

It's called diversification. I see lots of conversation about 4 giga factories. But you all are forgetting Giga-Nevada. With more automation they can make use of all that floor space. One other thing that surprises me, is how little conversation about the Semi in these comments. The plan has always been to ramp up production of the Semi in Austin.
With all these Giga factories the sound of massive furnaces burning money, will evolve into the sound of massive printing presses printing MONEY!!!!

I was counting Nevada, Shanghai, Austin and Berlin. Excluding Fremont and Buffalo?

I think Tesla has more problems staffing Nevada otherwise we would see more growth there. Solve the labor issue. ; maybe a 4x12/3x12 schedule with temporary housing and I bet Tesla would finish the Nevada building and we would see the Semi come out of there.

Fremont is nearing maximalization. Buffalo is just solar so far.

 

[Crissa]

Hmm, I thought most of the Semi manufacturing was to be in Nevada. I seem to recall some facilities being built there with that purpose.

The semi is going to be a whole other kind of assembly line than the Cybertruck. Cybertruck production will be like a rapid fire machine gun. Semi more like a bazooka. Volume is going to be orders of magnitude different.

They're starting manufacture in Nevada. But the plan was to move it to Austin once they got into mass production. But that requires far more 4680s than they're producing now.

Eventually they want to machine-gun the Semi production, too, but it'll eat batteries as a pace to make every other line wilt.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

They're starting manufacture in Nevada. But the plan was to move it to Austin once they got into mass production. But that requires far more 4680s than they're producing now.

Eventually they want to machine-gun the Semi production, too, but it'll eat batteries as a pace to make every other line wilt.

-Crissa

Besides 2170 batteries what is GN producing? I thought Tesla would build motors at GB and GA and things would be vertically integrated?

 

[Crissa]

Besides 2170 batteries what is GN producing? I thought Tesla would build motors at GB and GA and things would be vertically integrated?

Yes.

They need to figure out whatever that trick they need to get the 4680 factories running. But once it starts running, it will be going at a faster pace than the 2170s.

-Crissa

 

[rr6013]

<snip>

The way its going there won't be enough global economic activity to reach the global warming predictions.

<snip>

As a high concept -flyover- view, the US doesn’t need war, doesn’t want war and war no longer affects US money(FedReserve prints it). USD is the world currency. Repeat of WWII is so last century. That century played out, left wealth aplenty for the victor -US- and Hunger Games for all the rest. Up is down/Down is up now. TopsyTurvy is NOW.

The US Fed Reserve Chmwn Yellen again, as she missed inflation, just asserted there is no Recession. Which is a tell. There is no more reality shared by all. The 1%, in truth it’s the Top5%, accumulated wealth — all of it! That is the Reality that Yellen’s words reflect.

Tesla has not begun development on an affordable <$25k car. A widening earning recession(little ‘r’) is hitting little guys and gals. What you have(i.e.ground truth) is after-effects of a game that is over. All chips divvied up. Haves in one Reality, have-nots in whatever… reality. When you hear “reality“, frame which for context.

Pax-Americana globalization over, ColdWar over and NATO morphing into a non-republic of western ideologes — USA stands indifferent. It won the WWII, it won the game after and in its Reality never intended to win globalization, it benefited US interests to play “lift all boats”. And the US now has the greenback firmly in the grip of the its People, so the USA will go back to nationalization all the stronger, better and have its mass market all to itself. [quaint can’t be that simple yet ‘tis]

Collapse-fear is baked-in, a mirror of what has already transended. There won’t be a mechanism to rival the post-WWII prosperity, other than a few redistribution schemes. To be sure, a Hunger Game with individual winners not whole sectors of societies and certainly not without protest (i.e. Ukraine).

Who, if anyone, in Global Warming Lotto wins? World Power, wealth and treasury amount to archeological artifacts like Mayan ruins. To this day, we really don’t know what but we stand to know “how” pretty damn quick as melt-water could cause glaciers to slide off Greenland, Antarctic Thwates et.al.

World Order half-life has passed. Next ~60yrs. That’s end of runway for the battle of Giga.v.AGW. What’s next…won’t resemble what’s come before.

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