Best in Tesla Cybertruck Demand video

John K

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Main point I am taking from the video. 300,000 units will be produced in 2022. 4:30

I hear what I want to hear.
 

Ogre

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First… this dudes voice just annoys me.

Next, Musk has made it clear production ramp takes time, on multiple occasions. They were never going to hit 300k in 2022.

Finally… I think Musk was seriously sandbagging when he said production would be 250k-300k.

Tera Texas is designed to crank out vehicles. Obviously pure speculation here, but given the footprint of the plant and obvious huge demand for the truck, it seems entirely likely we’ll see truck production north of 300k by the end of 2023. And likely 500-600k by end of 2024. That would be consistent with Shanghai ramp up.

They called it a Tera Factory instead of a Giga Factory for a reason.
 

Throwcomputer

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First… this dudes voice just annoys me.

Next, Musk has made it clear production ramp takes time, on multiple occasions. They were never going to hit 300k in 2022.

Finally… I think Musk was seriously sandbagging when he said production would be 250k-300k.

Tera Texas is designed to crank out vehicles. Obviously pure speculation here, but given the footprint of the plant and obvious huge demand for the truck, it seems entirely likely we’ll see truck production north of 300k by the end of 2023. And likely 500-600k by end of 2024. That would be consistent with Shanghai ramp up.

They called it a Tera Factory instead of a Giga Factory for a reason.
Agreed. Mentioned in another thread everyone's estimates on ramp up is based on historical ramp up within drastically smaller factories and during a period of time when the company was learning how to produce at scale.

Giga tera peta whatever Texas is built with a different mindset completely. The whole building is built right from the start instead of similar Nevada which still isn't fully built out. This means Tesla has intentions to drastically increase ramp up once the lines are built out and machinery kinks are sorted. End of 2022 will see them ready to scale up to full capacity in 2023 faster than many outsiders are suggesting.
 

Ogre

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Agreed. Mentioned in another thread everyone's estimates on ramp up is based on historical ramp up within drastically smaller factories and during a period of time when the company was learning how to produce at scale.

Giga tera peta whatever Texas is built with a different mindset completely. The whole building is built right from the start instead of similar Nevada which still isn't fully built out. This means Tesla has intentions to drastically increase ramp up once the lines are built out and machinery kinks are sorted. End of 2022 will see them ready to scale up to full capacity in 2023 faster than many outsiders are suggesting.
The other thing, with the Model 3 ramp, they were learning this stuff and still managed to get 100,000 cars out the door (some with quality issues) in the first year. Model Y was much smoother. Model 3/Y Shanghai were smoother yet and produce a much better quality car.

Every generation, Tesla’s factories are more efficient and produce higher quality vehicles than the previous generation and they ramp up faster.
 

Jstoltz54

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Main point I am taking from the video. 300,000 units will be produced in 2022. 4:30

I hear what I want to hear.
I think if Samsung can get the 4th gen chips ramped up per schedule Tesla can get a solid ramp up by the end of 2022, with the new (or newer) 4680’s, don’t forget the new Silicone treatment enhancements if they are debugged and work in with the current 4680 ramp up then they can start a second line ramp up at Austin, there was mention of multiple 8gb presses in a recent review of the factory (twice even). I still haven’t heard about the origami process so it’s still a wildcard but even if it’s slow there should be plenty of space to put in four or more sublines to pick up the slack. My wild A** Guess is approaching a million a year by end of 2023. If at all possible Tesla won’t want to chance dimming the interest by under supporting the Golden Goose called CT. Just my gut feeling.
 
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