CT end of life

Tinker71

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Since the batteries are the most expensive single part of a EV many people think that when they see significant degradation that is the end of life for an EV. Because other component failures will start to fail around that time as well. I have been hoping since the beginning that 2-3 million CTs will be produced in a 10 year period and that improved replacement battery packs will be an economical thing.

In relation to heavy equipment sometimes the trigger is when the wiring harness starts to fail. It is very frustrating to be trouble shooting electrical problems all the time. Motors and transmissions can be rebuilt and you feel ok about sinking that money to get it going again for another 5 years. Wiring harnesses can be replaced if you can find one, but it just doesn't feel like a concrete investment.

With the SS body and potentially million mile motors, what is going to cause us to retire our CT? What won't be practically replaced indefinitely.


I am interested to hear what others think might be the trigger for retiring a CT and when.
 

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Tesla has reduced the amount of wiring in their EVs with revolutionary new harnesses (see https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/tesla-revolutionary-wiring-architecture-robots-model-y/). I don't see these wiring systems breaking down, drying out, etc., like current garbage from the big 2.5 (Stellantis isn't American but we'll throw them in). I'm sure the CT will continue the changes in wiring making it something that will last much longer. I believe the inside structure might/will(?) use the cast front and rear end along with the structural battery pack. As long as you take care of your CT, don't abuse it or get into an accident, I feel Tesla might be able to replace the batteries if they ever go below spec. I also thought the 4680 batteries might be million mile batteries, making it difficult for all but a few drivers to actually run the batteries out. Give Tesla more credit than GM and Ford because those manufacturers never made a car to last.

Screen-Shot-2019-07-22-at-2.17.21-PM-e1563822059181.jpg
 
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Tinker71

Tinker71

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I remember that. It must be a canbus or modbus or something similar. LED makes the power requirement so much less for headlights etc. I suppose they are just running a loop of 12-14v power with really low voltage switching and reporting through a combined circuit. Less wiring but more prone to a single point of failure? IDK.

I watched a pretty simplified piece on Ultium battery tech. My take away was their BMS would somehow manage mixing old and new batteries and even different size modules. The wiring required to balance these while charging and discharging would need to be significant. My BMS on my bus works by bleeding off differential in charges on the top end between modules. Essentially wasting a little bit of every charge cycle, but this is with closely match modules.
Maybe the Ultium BMS can top off individual modules rather than bleed to the lowest common voltage.

This would have huge advantages for warranty work, but I suspect the over all charging efficiency would be much lower as the vehicle ages.
 

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Tesla publishes stats on battery life. This is for the Model S/X, I’d assume Cybertruck with newer batter tech will be even better.

1652550890453.png


I have to ask, how many miles does your oldest/ most beat up vehicle have on the odo? How well does it run? I think ~83% capacity after 200k miles is pretty decent. Not exactly 1:1 with ICE vehicles, but ICE engines tend to get less efficient over time too.
 

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Tesla publishes stats on battery life. This is for the Model S/X, I’d assume Cybertruck with newer batter tech will be even better.

1652550890453.png


I have to ask, how many miles does your oldest/ most beat up vehicle have on the odo? How well does it run? I think ~83% capacity after 200k miles is pretty decent. Not exactly 1:1 with ICE vehicles, but ICE engines tend to get less efficient over time too.
I'm going to catch hell for this here, but this is still one my gripes about EVs. I've also previously mentioned that I'm still hoping the CT battery's "longevity" performance and warranty are better than what is currently being offered with the other Tesla models.

The last truck I owed was a 97' F250 7.3L diesel. When I traded it in (2015), it had over 200k on it and I was getting about 16 MPGs. The diesel doesn't have an EPA rating, but it's pretty safe to say that 16 MPGs was damn close to what that truck got when it was new. So I lost next nothing in terms of range ability after 200k miles. I tracked some of the milage and maintenance via Fuelly. https://www.fuelly.com/car/ford/f-250/1997/lancethibault/167388 For comparison if it was getting 83% of it's initial range that would be about 13.3MPGs

My current truck is 2013 F150 with 115k miles. I get about 14.5-15MPG with 35s on it. Prior to putting the 35s on it I think I was around 75k miles I was still getting about 17 MPG. The EPA rating for this truck is 17 MPGs combined. So I lost no MPGs at around 75k miles.

My wife's last vehicle was a 2010 Explorer. She traded it in with 190k miles on it and she was getting 18 MPGs...which is still the EPA rating. Her current 2017 Explorer has 77k miles on it and she averages over 20 MPGs which is also right in line with the EPA numbers.
 

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I'm going to catch hell for this here, but this is still one my gripes about EVs. I've also previously mentioned that I'm still hoping the CT battery's "longevity" performance and warranty are better than what is currently being offered with the other Tesla models.

The last truck I owed was a 97' F250 7.3L diesel. When I traded it in (2015), it had over 200k on it and I was getting about 16 MPGs. The diesel doesn't have an EPA rating, but it's pretty safe to say that 16 MPGs was damn close to what that truck got when it was new. So I lost next nothing in terms of range ability after 200k miles. I tracked some of the milage and maintenance via Fuelly. https://www.fuelly.com/car/ford/f-250/1997/lancethibault/167388 For comparison if it was getting 83% of it's initial range that would be about 13.3MPGs

My current truck is 2013 F150 with 115k miles. I get about 14.5-15MPG with 35s on it. Prior to putting the 35s on it I think I was around 75k miles I was still getting about 17 MPG. The EPA rating for this truck is 17 MPGs combined. So I lost no MPGs at around 75k miles.

My wife's last vehicle was a 2010 Explorer. She traded it in with 190k miles on it and she was getting 18 MPGs...which is still the EPA rating. Her current 2017 Explorer has 77k miles on it and she averages over 20 MPGs which is also right in line with the EPA numbers.
Batteries degrade. It’s more or less unavoidable.

On ICE vehicles, seals fail, leaks start, belts fail, transmissions start to slip, sensors go out, freeze plugs fail, engine mounts fail, etc etc etc.

You have different failure modes over time, but both are slowly seeing the effects of long term use. Lots of ICE vehicles have “known common failures”. I suspect anyone who has owned a car for a long time has heard “Oh yeah the transmission went out on my car at 120,000 miles too!” or something similar.

If you buy a Tesla, you can expect range to drop at least 10% in the first 3 years. Then another 10% over the remaining life of the vehicle. I suspect it’s getting better, but there aren’t enough of the cars with the new chemistries to really know.

Only way to really know what long term battery expectations will be on the Cybertruck (or Rivian or any truck) is by waiting 10+ years for them to get road experience and there is some metrics made over time.
 

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If you buy a Tesla, you can expect range to drop at least 10% in the first 3 years. Then another 10% over the remaining life of the vehicle. I suspect it’s getting better, but there aren’t enough of the cars with the new chemistries to really know.
But you have to think of it more like having your gas tank shrink. Performance and reliability wise, will still be awesome.
 
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Tinker71

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Batteries degrade. It’s more or less unavoidable.

On ICE vehicles, seals fail, leaks start, belts fail, transmissions start to slip, sensors go out, freeze plugs fail, engine mounts fail, etc etc etc.

You have different failure modes over time, but both are slowly seeing the effects of long term use. Lots of ICE vehicles have “known common failures”. I suspect anyone who has owned a car for a long time has heard “Oh yeah the transmission went out on my car at 120,000 miles too!” or something similar.

If you buy a Tesla, you can expect range to drop at least 10% in the first 3 years. Then another 10% over the remaining life of the vehicle. I suspect it’s getting better, but there aren’t enough of the cars with the new chemistries to really know.

Only way to really know what long term battery expectations will be on the Cybertruck (or Rivian or any truck) is by waiting 10+ years for them to get road experience and there is some metrics made over time.
270 miles per charge after 3 years would suck for the CT2. Something about the 300 miles of range is ok where 270 is unacceptable. Let's not even talk towing.
 

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270 miles per charge after 3 years would suck for the CT2. Something about the 300 miles of range is ok where 270 is unacceptable. Let's not even talk towing.
If you buy the 300 mi range model and you drive 300 mi between charges.. you are stuck and waiting for a flatbed tow. So you are already overestimating usable range.
 

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The money we save on maintenance will buy us a new battery in 10 years.

Seriously though, I do expect batteries cost to come down, and likely performance will go up by the time we get annoyed.

It is entirely possible to trade in your pack for recycling, and pick up a brand new one with double the capacity in 2030 for under $5000.

304 steel, strong chassis, fewer parts, upgradable tech… It is likely affordable overhaul businesses will be a thing.
 

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The money we save on maintenance will buy us a new battery in 10 years.

Seriously though, I do expect batteries cost to come down, and likely performance will go up by the time we get annoyed.

It is entirely possible to trade in your pack for recycling, and pick up a brand new one with double the capacity in 2030 for under $5000.

304 steel, strong chassis, fewer parts, upgradable tech… It is likely affordable overhaul businesses will be a thing.
In ten years, my son deals with replacing battery later in life as I buy CT 4.2 with titanium body.
 
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I expect the lifetime of CT batteries to be about 30-50 years (1,000,000 / 20,000). I do not think I will be around for either of those so I don’t care about the battery lifetime anymore. The exoskeleton and motors will probably last a long time, the motors probably being the first to go but they may be good for 15 years. Seats will go, monitors and other electronics will fail, and that is what we are looking at.
 
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Tesla has reduced the amount of wiring in their EVs with revolutionary new harnesses (see https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/tesla-revolutionary-wiring-architecture-robots-model-y/). I don't see these wiring systems breaking down, drying out, etc., like current garbage from the big 2.5 (Stellantis isn't American but we'll throw them in). I'm sure the CT will continue the changes in wiring making it something that will last much longer. I believe the inside structure might/will(?) use the cast front and rear end along with the structural battery pack. As long as you take care of your CT, don't abuse it or get into an accident, I feel Tesla might be able to replace the batteries if they ever go below spec. I also thought the 4680 batteries might be million mile batteries, making it difficult for all but a few drivers to actually run the batteries out. Give Tesla more credit than GM and Ford because those manufacturers never made a car to last.

Screen-Shot-2019-07-22-at-2.17.21-PM-e1563822059181.jpg
Word
 

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<snip>.

With the SS body and potentially million mile motors, what is going to cause us to retire our CT? What won't be practically replaced indefinitely.


I am interested to hear what others think might be the trigger for retiring a CT and when.
Donated a ‘91 Range Rover to Navajo in desert when its wire harness corroded. Living on ocean peninsula a UK truck was last expected to fail in moisture.

CT is the Corvette EV that never dies. Its life timeline will parallel the Corvette in which the ‘56 Corvette is iconic with wire mesh over headlights standard, as was the six cylinder. A rare one year only. Ditto CT gen 1 will be the iconic rare variant.

Tesla will rev CT gen1 replacing it with its next variant same as Chevrolet introduced the hardtop. SO the gen1’s will quietly slip into history gracefully.

Good question is whether the iconic CT is Quad, Tri, Dual or Single motor. OR some “other” way?

Cybertruck will rev in software beyond the useful battery lifetime. Granted there will be the necessity to “upgrade” computers along the way. That won’t be free. But the more invested the CT with mods, the more value there will be to keep doubling-down on the OG CT.

For my purposes, Tesla changing suspension to trailing arms would trigger churning-over the OG CT.
 

 
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