CT Production Capacity Guesstimate

Diehard

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This dude has thrown in some guessimates here that give me hope (500,000 / year). Do you think these numbers are possible in 2023? Much of what he talks about is not new but on demand and especially production capacity , where do you think he is correct and where do you think he is off?

p.s. around minute 00:50 he mentioned that CT casting machine is already on site in Texas. I must have missed that. Is that true?

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Crissa

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We don't know if the big casting machine is on site or not. We assumed not, since the one machine we saw working was one for the Model Y.

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I watch those daily giga texas update videos every night, haven't seen anything about the CT press just yet.

It took them about 3 years to ramp Fremont to 200k / year. Now that they've done it once, it should be faster and less painful for texas. Texas is also a much larger facility, and may take a while to get completely built out.

Many people don't know this, but assembly lines require very meticulous review before they are allowed to be turned on. But again, I think they've learned a lot in the past few years! I have no doubt that 500k /year will happen, but it's really up to the Tesla team to pull it off for 2022...
 

JBee

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I think if you go by the battery day GWh production numbers you will need to have a few cars to put all them batteries in! People just didn't get how HUGE those predictions are.

Tesla Cybertruck CT Production Capacity Guesstimate {filename}


Some quick vehicle numbers based on this slide:

Total Vehicle Market2%10%
Vehicle TypeBat Capacity GWhAvg Pack (kWh)Total VehiclesCurrent demand EVTesla ShareTesla Battery GWh
Small15006025,000,000500,0002,500,000150
Compact Midsize35007546,666,667933,3334,666,667350
Luxury & SUV9001009,000,000180,000900,00090
Pickup truck11001407,857,143157,143785,714110
Semi30004007,500,000150,000750,000300
Totals1000096,023,8101,920,4769,602,3811,000

So that's a lot of vehicles that need batteries if we go fully EV.
I've limited Tesla to 10% of the market, which is 1000GWh of battery production, of which they already do 150GWh, and are saying they can do 1000GWh in one single Terafactory battery production facility, that takes up 10x less space than a Giga Factory of the same capacity.

Note that at a yearly CT production rate of 785k the CT needs "just" 110GWh of batteries. So less than what they are currently making in giga Nevada (150GWh).

Tesla Cybertruck CT Production Capacity Guesstimate {filename}
Tesla Cybertruck CT Production Capacity Guesstimate {filename}


And they want to do 100GWh by 2022 (lets say end of) of the new cells and a whopping 3TWh by 2030, that's 30% of the vehicle market by 2030! If they use half of the 100GWH in 2022 for Y and the rest for CT we end up with enough 4680's in 2022 for around 360,000 Cybertrucks!

2030 at 30% Tesla share looks like this:

Total Vehicle Market2%30%
Vehicle TypeBat Capacity GWhAvg Pack (kWh)Total VehiclesCurrent demand EVTesla ShareTesla Battery GWh
Small15006025,000,000500,0007,500,000450
Compact Midsize35007546,666,667933,33314,000,0001050
Luxury & SUV9001009,000,000180,0002,700,000270
Pickup truck11001407,857,143157,1432,357,143330
Semi30004007,500,000150,0002,250,000900
Totals1000077596,023,8101,920,47628,807,1433,000

Looking at those figures is well....nuts! That's 2.4 million cybertrucks a year in 8 years ramp time. So CT needs to be around 200k units a year off the bat...

YearCT Production Rate
Year 1200,000
Year 2400,000
Year 3600,000
Year 4900,000
Year 51,100,000
Year 61,400,000
Year 71,800,000
Year 82,400,000

I'm impressed! At that ramp rate it will take 3 years to meet the 1 million pre-orders....yikes!
Based on that I'd have to agree that Tera Austin might have to do more than we think, and maybe even 500k a year soon.

Just don't look at the small and midsize production rate and predicted numbers.... factor 10x!! ?
 
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Throwcomputer

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I think if you go by the battery day GWh production numbers you will need to have a few cars to put all them batteries in! People just didn't get how HUGE those predictions are.

Tesla Cybertruck CT Production Capacity Guesstimate {filename}


Some quick vehicle numbers based on this slide:

Total Vehicle Market2%10%
Vehicle TypeBat Capacity GWhAvg Pack (kWh)Total VehiclesCurrent demand EVTesla ShareTesla Battery GWh
Small15006025,000,000500,0002,500,000150
Compact Midsize35007546,666,667933,3334,666,667350
Luxury & SUV9001009,000,000180,000900,00090
Pickup truck11001407,857,143157,143785,714110
Semi30004007,500,000150,000750,000300
Totals1000096,023,8101,920,4769,602,3811,000

So that's a lot of vehicles that need batteries if we go fully EV.
I've limited Tesla to 10% of the market, which is 1000GWh of battery production, of which they already do 150GWh, and are saying they can do 1000GWh in one single Terafactory battery production facility, that takes up 10x less space than a Giga Factory of the same capacity.

Note that at a yearly CT production rate of 785k the CT needs "just" 110GWh of batteries. So less than what they are currently making in giga Nevada (150GWh).

Tesla Cybertruck CT Production Capacity Guesstimate {filename}
Tesla Cybertruck CT Production Capacity Guesstimate {filename}


And they want to do 100GWh by 2022 (lets say end of) of the new cells and a whopping 3TWh by 2030, that's 30% of the vehicle market by 2030! If they use half of the 100GWH in 2022 for Y and the rest for CT we end up with enough 4680's in 2022 for around 360,000 Cybertrucks!

2030 at 30% Tesla share looks like this:

Total Vehicle Market2%30%
Vehicle TypeBat Capacity GWhAvg Pack (kWh)Total VehiclesCurrent demand EVTesla ShareTesla Battery GWh
Small15006025,000,000500,0007,500,000450
Compact Midsize35007546,666,667933,33314,000,0001050
Luxury & SUV9001009,000,000180,0002,700,000270
Pickup truck11001407,857,143157,1432,357,143330
Semi30004007,500,000150,0002,250,000900
Totals1000077596,023,8101,920,47628,807,1433,000

Looking at those figures is well....nuts! That's 2.4 million cybertrucks a year in 8 years ramp time. So CT needs to be around 200k units a year off the bat...

YearCT Production Rate
Year 1200,000
Year 2400,000
Year 3600,000
Year 4900,000
Year 51,100,000
Year 61,400,000
Year 71,800,000
Year 82,400,000

I'm impressed! At that ramp rate it will take 3 years to meet the 1 million pre-orders....yikes!
Based on that I'd have to agree that Tera Austin might have to do more than we think, and maybe even 500k a year soon.

Just don't look at the small and midsize production rate and predicted numbers.... factor 10x!! ?
This lines up with the spreadsheet estimates for me at the back of the line. Estimated 1.2 millionth reservation adjusted with Sept 2024 delivery. End of year 3 your estimate, not counting for trim which might make it a little earlier.

Your numbers look good, but later in the estimates you might be over estimating it. Can't see them cranking out 1.8-2.4 million cyber trucks a year. There just isn't enough demand for this style truck. But i think by that time, they have other more traditional looking truck models which together bring the total number to that. Just not all of it being a highly polarizing retro futuristic design. Some people just don't have any interest in it for it's looks. Others like me are moths to the flame of its style.

It's an interesting method of producing vehicles. They are turning a concept truck into a production truck which has a strong demand within a sizeable but limited subset of the market. So it's still a concept truck but put into sizeable production. My thought is they will sell a lot, to people like me who love everything about the design and tech.. Will probably pick up a few stragglers who aren't crazy about the design but are crazy about the tech specs, and then no one will be buying it when that limited pool runs out. Maybe 3-5 million sales in the first 5 years (worldwide), and somewhere around another 1-200k/yr thereafter. By that time, they will already have a more traditional truck model out to compliment, which will run along side this concept truck production and pick up way more customers who have been proven wrong that the truck format works great for the tech, but just couldn't get behind the looks. This is where those numbers start to become reality in terms of sales. On the Tesla Model T. Not the cybertruck.

Hopefully they continue with updated cybertruck models long into the future to keep this quirky subset of their customer base happy when and if those original ct owners are looking to upgrade 5-15 years down the line.

It would be interesting to see their research and stats on how much of their truck market share is taken from other manufacturers vs new truck owners. I suspect they haven't taken a huge hit out of the truck market, but have helped expand the market, specifically to their benefit and not other manufacturers. They might be hurting Honda truck sales though!
 
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MEDICALJMP

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My belief is that the Cybertruck style, once mass produced and in the hands of consumers, will alter the mindset of traditional tuck-buying people. First is the utility of the vehicle. Second will be the performance of the vehicle compared to traditional trucks. Third factor will be the value for the money. Add all that together and you have a winning combination that, despite its looks, will win over a lot of people. It did me.

I work with a physician's assistant who really wants a Cybertruck. He can’t get over the fact that he might look different compared to those in his more rural community. He lives in farm country and he’s afraid all the other farm guys/truck guys will make fun of him. He doesn’t see it that way, but that’s the way it is when you boil it down. Once others have it and they start raving about the utility factor on the farm, how it doesn’t get all torn up and dented from every bump, stump and dump, people like him will reconsider their appraisal. What was once considered, “out there” styling will become common place. Traditional-styled trucks might be looked upon as old fashioned and backwards.
 
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Throwcomputer

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My belief is that the Cybertruck style, once mass produced and in the hands of consumers, will alter the mindset of traditional tuck-buying people. First is the utility of the vehicle. Second will be the performance of the vehicle compared to traditional trucks. Third factor will be the value for the money. Add all that together and you have a winning combination that, despite its looks, will win over a lot of people. It did me.

I work with positions assistant who really wants a cyber truck. He can’t get over the fact that he might look different compared to those in his more rural community. He lives in Farm country and he’s afraid all the other farm guys/truck guys will make fun of him. He doesn’t see it that way, but that’s the way it is when you boil it down. Once others have it and they start raving about the utility factor on the farm, how it doesn’t get all torn up and dented from every bump and dump, people will reconsider their appraisal. What as once considered “out there” styling will become common place. Traditionally styled trucks might be looked upon as old fashioned and backwards.
It looks like a v1 Ridgeline on steroids. The Ridgeline didn't shift truck styling preferences. The cyber truck won't either!
 

MEDICALJMP

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It looks like a v1 Ridgeline on steroids. The Ridgeline didn't shift truck styling preferences. The cyber truck won't either!

Are there fan sights dedicated to he Honda Ridgeline? Do people wait for videos of the Ridgeline factory being built? Was the Ridgeline a revolutionary vehicle or just another ICE vehicle among many styled much the same?

The original Hummer changed people’s perceptions of vehicles. Cyber truck will change the view of others as they get out there. I have no doubt that there will be plenty of city police departments going to cyber truck is their squad cars. My local police department uses SUVs now. Think about the utility of a stainless steel vehicle that is used in a very high visailiy setting such as the police department.
 
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Diehard

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It looks like a v1 Ridgeline on steroids. The Ridgeline didn't shift truck styling preferences. The cyber truck won't either!
You may be right but don’t underestimate the power of steroids. Ridgeline didn’t offer much over traditional home grown trucks when it came to specs. It was slightly more comfortable and may be more reliable. Other than that, it was subpar in many other respects. So if there is a portion of truck buying population that is willing to compromise on styling, they may buy CT but not Ridgeline due to specs alone.

p.s. Ridgeline makes a lot of sense for someone like me and has been on my shopping list.
 

JBee

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So the point of the speadsheets and presentation was to reconcile the statement in the video that we are underestimating CT production numbers, and given what I worked out I think thats right. The max production numbers are based on the battery day predictions for one single Terafactory 4680 plant, and not my own guess.

As for any statements regarding the looks or style, it needs to undstood that they are the result of the engineering design, and over arching goals.

The reason it's stainless is so that SpaceX gets a custom made SS that is mass produced at low cost so they can make Starship cheaper. The stainless also results in no paint shop, which is half a $billion off the factory price, and gets rid of the paintshop and quality control bottlenecks and increase throughput etc. and in particular rust protection (why F150 is alu) Its shape is like that because you can't hydroform 3mm SS like normal 0.2mm car steel, so it won’t change shape because theres only so many ways you can fold it to make a car. It's exoskeleton is there because theres a structural battery pack, and the exoskeleton is shaped like a truss for rigidity to hold the castings and pack together under load, all resulting in less weight. Less weight means more miles on a smaller battery pack, also means smaller drivetrain components and better payload capacity. All at a lower cost than the competition with comparable features (if they can keep up at all).

Truck design has permanently changed. CT is here to stay. Once people start seeing it on the road and it becomes real to them it will dominate.
 
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Throwcomputer

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Are there fan sights dedicated to he Honda Ridgeline? Do people wait for videos of the Ridgeline factory being built? Was the Ridgeline a revolutionary vehicle or just another ICE vehicle among many styled much the same?

The original Hummer changed people’s perceptions of vehicles. Cyber truck will change the view of others as they get out there. I have no doubt that there will be plenty of city police departments going to cyber truck is their squad cars. My local police department uses SUVs now. Think about the utility of a stainless steel vehicle that is used in a very high visailiy setting such as the police department.
There are fan sites. I'm a member of the similarly named ridgelineownersclub forum. But you are conflating Tesla and tech hype for cybertruck hype. All I'm saying is there is a lot of hype over the tech and this happens to be the first truck announced with the tech. The styling is disconnected from that hype, and given there are many other manufacturers models in the pipeline, i personally don't see the cybertruck styling having such a large impact on the market. Don't get me wrong, i would love for it to be a huge hit. I'm obsessed with retro futuristic design. This is my flux capacitor finally!
 

Throwcomputer

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The reason it's stainless is so that SpaceX gets a custom made SS that is mass produced at low cost so they can make Starship cheaper. The stainless also results in no paint shop, which is half a $billion off the factory price, and gets rid of the paintshop and quality control bottlenecks and increase throughput etc. and in particular rust protection (why F150 is alu) Its shape is like that because you can't hydroform 3mm SS like normal 0.2mm car steel, so it won’t change shape because theres onle so many ways you can fold it to make a car.
Truck design has permanently changed. CT is here to stay. Once people start seeing it on the road and it becomes real to them it will dominate.
This is assuming they have made this material decision for the rest of the future. I'm saying they will decide to make another model not made with 30x cold rolled steel exoskeleton for the mass market.

Thinking it's visually changed the truck market is making delorean level missteps.
 

JBee

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This is assuming they have made this material decision for the rest of the future. I'm saying they will decide to make another model not made with 30x cold rolled steel exoskeleton for the mass market.

Thinking it's visually changed the truck market is making delorean level missteps.
Its a fact that black is the new black...all styles go through phases. Delorean was before its time and poorly executed with mediocre performance. This is the opposite.

This is engineering and fabrication driven design to the max. Come back in 30 years and see if they're still being built. This is the VW bug of the truck world and model T of modern manufacturing.
 

DarinCT

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7 Million+ square feet of production in Giga Austin. I do wonder what the percentage allotted to batteries will be, how does that compare to Giga1, what production efficiencies they can institute, what physical economies of scale exist(or not), how will Semi commitments affect all of the above, v and more.

Before, I didn't want to pickup my CT in Texas because of the mind-numbing driving back along I-10W, LA traffic, and jab in the eye I-5. Now, if I could get all those questions answered by a knowledgeable person, I'd fly to Texas.
 
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JBee

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I'd fly to Texas anyway if my CT was waiting there for pickup...and I live downunder! :cool:
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