CyberBeast deliveries -- begin when?

[Guylouis]

It’s been over a month since I was told to prepare for delivery. Not a single update from Tesla on my FS CB.

I keep hearing of dual motor owners getting VIN’s.

on the 18th we saw 10 Beasts get VIN activations.
Are deliveries imminent?

Sponsored

 

[Wraven]

I wouldn’t correlate vin activation directly to production just yet, we don’t have enough data to support that. Meaning it could be (guessing) 10-60 days between inactivation to delivery. We need more delivered vins to correlate and form a theory.

In other words, just because 10 beast vins have been activated doesn’t mean anyone has been assigned those vins. The truck needs to be made and shipped to a delivery center, they assign a vin somewhere in the delivery to a Tesla center step.

 

[Diveflyfish]

It’s been over a month since I was told to prepare for delivery. Not a single update from Tesla on my FS CB.

I keep hearing of dual motor owners getting VIN’s.

on the 18th we saw 10 Beasts get VIN activations.
Are deliveries imminent?

Where is the data from activated VIN numbers obtained?

 

[Guylouis]

Where is the data from activated VIN numbers obtained?

 

[Diveflyfish]

So this is data on this site and not generated from Tesla correct?

 

[MyKidCouldDrawThat]

There's no "APR-JUN" option on the poll

 

[prmody]

I wouldn’t correlate vin activation directly to production just yet, we don’t have enough data to support that. Meaning it could be (guessing) 10-60 days between inactivation to delivery. We need more delivered vins to correlate and form a theory.

In other words, just because 10 beast vins have been activated doesn’t mean anyone has been assigned those vins. The truck needs to be made and shipped to a delivery center, they assign a vin somewhere in the delivery to a Tesla center step.

I wouldn’t correlate vin activation directly to production just yet, we don’t have enough data to support that. Meaning it could be (guessing) 10-60 days between inactivation to delivery. We need more delivered vins to correlate and form a theory.

In other words, just because 10 beast vins have been activated doesn’t mean anyone has been assigned those vins. The truck needs to be made and shipped to a delivery center, they assign a vin somewhere in the delivery to a Tesla center step.

Per my understanding the VIN is assigned after the vehicle is manufactured. It appears that the data that shows VIN assignment writes capture date and not assignment date. It means the VIN could be assigned earlier (per say December) and captured on Jan 18th. I wish we could know when they were assigned. This is especially important because typicallybe assigned in a sequence. In this case they are not.

As much as I want my beast now, I have no idea as to when I'll get it. Gotta wait impatiently.

 

[rudedawg78]

Where is the after March option?

 

[Wraven]

Per my understanding the VIN is assigned after the vehicle is manufactured. It appears that the data that shows VIN assignment writes capture date and not assignment date. It means the VIN could be assigned earlier (per say December) and captured on Jan 18th. I wish we could know when they were assigned. This is especially important because typicallybe assigned in a sequence. In this case they are not.

As much as I want my beast now, I have no idea as to when I'll get it. Gotta wait impatiently.

I’m not following the nomenclature given the subject. Tesla assigns vins to a customer after the product is manufactured, passed QC tests and is in transit if not already at the delivery center.

Assigning an VIN and a VIN being activated a two very separate and distinct things.

The research on this forum is when a vin is activated with the government agency. Activation and delivery (or production rate) just doesn’t have enough data yet to make any meaningful scientific correlations.

 

[rbalkun]

There's no "APR-JUN" option on the poll

Or a 2025 option

 

[cvalue13]

Per my understanding the VIN is assigned after the vehicle is manufactured. It appears that the data that shows VIN assignment writes capture date and not assignment date. It means the VIN could be assigned earlier (per say December) and captured on Jan 18th. I wish we could know when they were assigned. This is especially important because typicallybe assigned in a sequence. In this case they are not.

As much as I want my beast now, I have no idea as to when I'll get it. Gotta wait impatiently.

you’re confusing two entirely different things

our thread on VIN activations is one thing. Specifically, it shows when Tesla activates a VIN number prior to building the unit that will receive that VIN.

conversely, another thing is when a customer with an order receives a VIN from Tesla, which occurs ~after that unit has been built and when Tesla decides to allocate that build to that customer

So this is data on this site and not generated from Tesla correct?

see link above. The underlying data is “from Tesla” insofar as we’re tracking when Tesla itself activates a VIN prior to beginning building a unit.

we here (esp @newwave1331 ) are scraping that data, collating it, and then collectively observing the trends in rates of VIN activations (a rough proxy for rate of builds), build blend trends (how many AWDs vs Beasts), apparent pauses in production (using pauses in VIN activations as a rough proxy), etc.

is it perfect data? No

is it wildly more informative than people’s drone observations of the outbound lot, armchair emotional hopium, etc.? Absolutely

on the 18th we saw 10 Beasts get VIN activations.
Are deliveries imminent?

on this point, if you go review the last several pages of our VIN activation thread you’ll get the vibes

but in short: there have been so few Beasts built since the delivery event, I don’t think Joe Public should get their hopes up for a Beasr delivery anytime soon. That is because there are likely still MANY VIPs/employees/friends and family orders who still haven’t gotten their Beasts yet. Beyond and since the delivery event units, there have been fewer than 15 Beasts built.

this is in contrast to AWDs, of which at this point there have been over 600 built. So VIPs etc are more filled up, allowing Tesla to start dripping out towards select Joe Publics.**

With Beasts, we simply have no idea how long the VIP etc ‘backorder’ line might be. So even if we see them activate 100 beast VINs, we shouldn’t necessarily expect to see Joe Public getting one of those anytime soon. Hopefully. But tempered expectations.



**Even then, it’s not clear how many true Joe public’s are getting even AWDs yet. Do some double-clicking on people saying “not an employee” and you’ll often find they have an eg Tesla YouTube channel and were at the ATX delivery event based on purchase referrals, etc.

 

[Diveflyfish]

Does Tesla publish this data for
All to see or is it from an insider source? If one could advise if all can see it how to access that ? Thank you for this clarification! Yea to be sure, patience is a virtue…. Stoicism is helpful. Cheers

 

[cvalue13]

Does Tesla publish this data for
All to see or is it from an insider source? If one could advise if all can see it how to access that ? Thank you for this clarification! Yea to be sure, patience is a virtue…. Stoicism is helpful. Cheers

you can check a couple of public places, including the NHTSA VIN recall website. But you can only check one at a time, and to find previously unknown VINs you’ll have to understand the VIN formulations to randomly check for mathematically viable VIN numbers, to then randomly discover which valid VINs are actual VINs.

our thread and @newwave1331’s magic fingers have more or less automated all of this at scale, with daily scrapes.

if you want to replicate your own, then a scan of the history of that thread’s 20ish pages will give you a roadmap to doing so for yourself.

the info is publically available. The info is not publically friendly or organized.

 

[Guylouis]

Great thread

 

[Diveflyfish]

you can check a couple of public places, including the NHTSA VIN recall website. But you can only check one at a time, and to find previously unknown VINs you’ll have to understand the VIN formulations to randomly check for mathematically viable VIN numbers, to then randomly discover which valid VINs are actual VINs.

our thread and @newwave1331’s magic fingers have more or less automated all of this at scale, with daily scrapes.

if you want to replicate your own, then a scan of the history of that thread’s 20ish pages will give you a roadmap to doing so for yourself.

the info is publically available. The info is not publically friendly or organized.

Thank you all for your efforts. Cheers

Sponsored