Cybercatch22: Demand vs Delay

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Source : https://thedriven.io/2023/03/23/cyb...racting-scalpers-what-will-tesla-do-about-it/


The popularity of Tesla products has been on an exponential rise with each new product launch, and the CyberTruck is no exception.

As the release date approaches, the excitement and anticipation has reached a fever pitch among reservation holders, but not all have the same priorities: Some are simply desperate to lay hands on an innovative new product. Others want to make a quick profit from the overwhelming demand.

For those who intended to own and directly use the CyberTruck, there is a growing concern that parasitic profiteering could undermine the pricing structure for the CyberTruck and lead to early reservation holders paying a premium for their foresight.

For the people that made reservations purely to sell back to the secondary market, there are concerns about the measures Tesla could implement to retain that initial profit available for early production demand.

Both the Model 3 and Model Y have seen multiple price adjustments in each market globally to balance the demand vs waiting list issue.

When wait lists are too long some individuals are prepared to pay well over the retail price to jump the queue. This in turn makes the queue longer as scalpers take up delivery slots and hold the vehicles until sold again, which in turn makes it difficult to analyse the price point/demand balance.

As noted at the recent investor day presentation; ā€œA linear decrease in profit margins leads to an exponential increase in demand.ā€

The dynamic of waiting lists and pricing for a highly coveted product like the Tesla CyberTruck could be significantly impacted by parasitic profiteering. This is when individuals or companies purchase reservations or pre-orders with the sole intent of reselling them at a higher price to those who are willing to pay more to jump the queue.

If potential buyers are priced out of the market or feel that the pricing is unjustifiably high, they may turn to other manufacturers for their electric vehicle needs.

Tesla Cybertruck Cybercatch22: Demand vs Delay Tesla-Cybertruck-Spotted-February-2023-348x400
IMAGE: TWITTER

Tesla does reserve the right to cancel repeat orders for those they believe are taking part in these practices, however with CyberTruck demand growing and well over 1 million reservations in place, this particular tool may be ineffective.

Even with the enormous number of reservations placed, this may not be an accurate picture of demand, as many posts in social media and discussion forums suggest many reservationists intended to buy one for themselves and sell a second and/or third in the secondary market for profit.

Many of these people on various forums have even suggested the second vehicle would be sold to help pay for the first. With this being a distinct possibility, Tesla could/should introduce a new sales strategy to mitigate the one-off scalping risk.

The launch prices for the various trim levels range from $39k to $69k. Elon Musk has recently stated that delays in production schedule and unanticipated cost inflation mean the final price will be higher than first announced.

For early reservation holders an increase in prices equivalent to those seen during the production ramp of Model 3 and Y would price some out of the offering, potentially losing their place in the queue or simply having to wait past their place in line until the price meets the point they can manage.

On a post in the Cybertruckownersclub.com forum, one member has suggested that a two-tier pricing structure and sales strategy be implemented to remove the punitive cost for early reservation holders that intended to be the end user of the product.

ā€œA clearly articulated and restrictive clause in the contract of sale that disincentivises on selling for a stipulated time frame (12-18months), possibly a lease to buy contract,ā€ they said.​
ā€œA small proportion of monthly production allocated to delivery centres that are only available at auction.ā€​

This suggests that if a person wants to own the vehicle straight out of the delivery centre with the capacity to immediately resell, they could buy it at open auction facilitated by Tesla at whatever the market on that day could support.

Additionally, if a person wants to take advantage of their reservation and buy it at a price with a profit margin analogous the rest of the Tesla product range, they would need to engage in a sales contract that removed their capacity to sell it for a designated time period.

There was significant pushback to this idea on cybertruckownersclub.com as it appeared many of the contributing members intended to sell one or more of their reservations.

The OP argued that concerns about restrictive sales contracts leading to unacceptable and potentially challenging legal arguments around ownership are addressed by the customer entering into the sales contract of their choice.

The high demand for the Tesla CyberTruck may amount to an upwards of 5-year backlog of production capacity. This could create an inordinate potential for parasitic profiteering, which could undermine the pricing structure and disrupt fair access to the CyberTruck for all reservation holders.

With reservations for the Tesla CyberTruck no longer being available in many markets, including Australia, and the delivery schedule for regions outside of North America remaining unclear, the electric vehicle community will be closely monitoring the situation to determine the extent of hype versus genuine demand for the product.

The question is, will Tesla take a proactive approach in addressing this issue to support the integrity of the reservation process? Will Tesla ensure that all those who have placed their trust in the company are able to purchase the CyberTruck at a fair and reasonable price?
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Did an article get posted to this forum which had as its primary source... An argument on this forum?

šŸ˜µā€šŸ’«

-Crissa
Yep, that thread got closed down because some champions decided it needed derailing as it threatened their potential for parasitic profiteering.

If theDriven.com.au thought it worthwhile to pick up, I thought Iā€™d open it back up to see if thereā€™s space for more constructive discussion.
 

charliemagpie

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Lease with option to buy is a brilliant idea
 

cvalue13

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Did an article get posted to this forum which had as its primary source... An argument on this forum?

šŸ˜µā€šŸ’«

-Crissa
did you notice the name of the articleā€™s author? how it relates to the OPā€™s member name and trademark ā€œparasitic profiteeringā€ catch phrase?

strange the Driven article didnā€™t include fabricated ChatGPT answers being put forward as evidence of the authorā€™s point of view
 


fhteagle

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That thread went toxically and heavily against it's OP because the OP started with a flawed premise: That Tesla could / should / would use restrictions on buyers to try to capture more revenue.

If, and this is a huge if, Tesla actually cared to bother to grab a small percentage extra profit at the risk of the huge PR / brand / customer loyalty damage that the methods required to profiteer would do, they have basically 3 options:

- True or pseudo Dutch auction of the first X units, potentially up until new orders asymptoted to new production levels. Again, tiny upside, massive logistic and brand damage by blowing up the reservation system this late in the game.

- Leases only for the first Y years. Again, not much upside, and this really only kicks the scalper can down the road a tiny bit, doesn't solve it at all.

- Then there's the OP's sales contract covenant idea, which will destroy demand from buyers like me who will say GTH before signing anything close to that. Net effect will be to lower rather than increase the sale price Tesla can command.

To be fair, I will admit my biases up front. I hold a ~10k and ~40k reservation, which is one or two more than I actually need. Better believe I have thought about the best use for the second one, and yes best includes what benefits me.

Bottom line, if Tesla wants more early profit, start the pricing higher and walk it down to a suitable point on the supply and demand curves (pseudo Dutch auction). Any of the other methods are way way way too risky to brand and loyalty to be seriously contemplated.

Can we put this dead horse in the ground where it belongs now?
 
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cvalue13

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Can we put this dead horse in the ground where it belongs now?
you mean we shouldnā€™t:

Step 1: start a forum thread that dies because itā€™s uninteresting

Sept 2: then, go write an online article that cites your own dead forum thread

Step 3: then, start a new forum thread about your online article about your dead thread
 

CyberOwl

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What a huge nothingburger. I donā€™t understand what the poster thinks will happen? Itā€™s not like someone reserving now will have any chance to mark up a truck from the end on the line. It will only work for early res holders, who have multiple trucks on order. The buyers who are willing to pay a premium will be rich kids who donā€™t want something thatā€™s been out two years already, or foreigners who canā€™t make a res. from their country. Either way Tesla benefits from simply selling more trucks. Isnā€™t it about fulfilling the most number of reservations period? They build cars and make lots of money doing that. They donā€™t need any side hustles running an auction house, or going around collecting extra dollar bills off the sidewalk. My bet is Elon will say ā€˜capitalism made meā€™ and will let the free market function as it may.
 

John K

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My reservation is now selling for 2.5 million plus a 5 digit reservation number.
 
OP
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Youā€™ve argued for my points excellently.
That thread went toxically and heavily against it's OP because the OP started with a flawed premise: That Tesla could / should / would use restrictions on buyers to try to capture more revenue.
How is it a flawed premise that any company would use restrictions to capture more revenue? Tesla already cancels orders from serial scalpers to capture more revenue. Toxic responses are a result of fear that Tesla may go further in their use of sales restrictions.

If, and this is a huge if, Tesla actually cared to bother to grab a small percentage extra profit at the risk of the huge PR / brand / customer loyalty damage that the methods required to profiteer would do, they have basically 3 options:
As long as the measures are adequately articulated, the only PR and brand damage will be for vocal and disingenuous parasitic profiteers, explain again how a sales restriction would effect a genuine customer?

- True or pseudo Dutch auction of the first X units, potentially up until new orders asymptoted to new production levels. Again, tiny upside, massive logistic and brand damage by blowing up the reservation system this late in the game.
Teslas current sales strategy is essentially a Dutch auction. Youā€™ve eloquently argued the premise of the original post, the current strategy has a tiny upside, complicates logistics, imposes brand damage by blowing up the reservation system.

Leases only for the first Y years. Again, not much upside, and this really only kicks the scalper can down the road a tiny bit, doesn't solve it at all.
In isolation this is correct, but when coupled with weekly/monthly auctions, the impetus for a genuine customer to pay more for a secondhand vehicle than they can buy new is removed. After the lease to own period they are likely able to sell at a price just below new, which maintains brand value by minimising depreciation

Bottom line, if Tesla wants more early profit, start the pricing higher and walk it down to a suitable point on the supply and demand curves (pseudo Dutch auction).
Which is what they currently do, but this penalises early reservation holders for their foresight. I believe the reason Elon has been using inflation and other factors to mitigate backlash for not delivering at unveil price is because Tesla understand the potential for parasitic profiteering and consequential damage to revenue.

You have stated you have a personal stake in in this issue, I guess itā€™s reasonable to want this to be dead and buried because it threatens your capacity to profit from Teslas ingenuity, but you would have made more money just buying Tesla stockā€¦.
 
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cvalue13

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How is it a flawed premise that any company would use restrictions to capture more revenue?
Letā€™s level-set:

Which exactly is your starting principle:

(A) Tesla is so dumb theyā€™ve never thought of this, or

(B) Tesla has thought about this, but theyā€™re so dumb they arenā€™t able to see the light, or

(C) no matter how brilliant Tesla is, they, like, totes donā€™t understand it as gud as you understand it
 
OP
OP

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What a huge nothingburger. I donā€™t understand what the poster thinks will happen? Itā€™s not like someone reserving now will have any chance to mark up a truck from the end on the line. It will only work for early res holders, who have multiple trucks on order. The buyers who are willing to pay a premium will be rich kids who donā€™t want something thatā€™s been out two years already, or foreigners who canā€™t make a res. from their country. Either way Tesla benefits from simply selling more trucks. Isnā€™t it about fulfilling the most number of reservations period? They build cars and make lots of money doing that. They donā€™t need any side hustles running an auction house, or going around collecting extra dollar bills off the sidewalk. My bet is Elon will say ā€˜capitalism made meā€™ and will let the free market function as it may.
Iā€™m not talking about someone considering it now. Thereā€™s likely 2million reservations, at 250,000 per year static production rate thatā€™s an 8 year backlog. There is more demand than just the reservations. People bought up reservations with the express purpose of siphoning profit.

Tesla probably have a reasonable idea of how many of these reservations are genuine, but why should Tesla allow and enable parasitic profit loss for the first few years of production?

This mechanism would honour the genuine reservations of the early adopters, whilst also providing a profitable mechanism for late comers to jump on the bandwagon. The issue is not alienating those people that have a genuine use for Cybertruck but were also planning to scalp some reservations

These are going to be highly desirable vehicles simply because the other manufacturers are failing to even plan to compete on volume.

I personally donā€™t want to pay a premium so some people can leech of Cybertrucks brand, value, ingenuity.
 
OP
OP

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Lease with option to buy is a brilliant idea
Needs to be coupled with a mechanism to enable queue jumpersā€¦ otherwise Tesla wonā€™t actually be able to see the profits available.
 
OP
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My reservation is now selling for 2.5 million plus a 5 digit reservation number.
Is there a black market for this? Where are you getting that $2.5mil from?
 
 




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