Cybertruck delayed; writing is on the wall.

Zybane

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When they first announced deliveries beginning in late 2021, I think most of us took that with a grain of salt. With Elon showing up in the Cybertruck prototype at the Austin construction site and not providing any update; combined with the delay and push-back of any new information AT ALL on the Cybertruck, let alone revealing the updated version, I think we are in for quite a wait.

The Plaid+ Model S which uses the same battery and driveline as the Tri-motor Cybertruck, on the Tesla website now says first deliveries summer 2022. Over a year from now for a car chassis that already exists, and has existed for a long time.

And look what happened to the Tesla Roadster. Those poor saps put $50,000 deposits down for a car first supposed to release in 2020. Now it's vaporware and has basically vanished off the face of the planet. That was a car revealed FOUR years ago.

And then there is this:

https://www.mining.com/tesla-hit-by-battery-shortage-amid-rallying-lithium-cobalt-nickel-prices/

So as Cybertruck reservation holder ~6,000, I don't expect my truck now until 2023.
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Crissa

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That article completely invents a story to go along with some text.

The Semi was supposed to come out years ago, the reason it hadn't is because they have been battery constrained. Past tense.

The higher prices of lithium this year are completely unrelated to the lack of cells for the Semi - it's that they don't have enough factories making cells, Something Elon said six months ago at Battery Day.

-Crissa
 

Diehard

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Unless Elon likes toying with people, the radio silence on CT gives me the impression that no news is bad news. Model Y seems to be the golden child right now and unless someone else is able to light a fire under Tesla’s booty with a compelling electric truck (which seems unlikely), CT will stay low on Tesla’s priority list. To guesstimate how long the delay will be, we will have to watch Y orders and new battery development and manufacturing progress. Hopefully, Elon’s silence is mostly about the batteries and not an unforeseen major design flaw that they don’t know how to remedy. My tolerance for staying in the dark is fairly low and if this keeps up, may drop out and come back to CT in 10 years or so (if I am still around).
 

DarinCT

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Like @Crissa said above and @cybertrucktruckguy said in his battery ramp video, the volume will be there. It just won't be there in 2021. @Zybane , we're in April 2021, consider how much construction had occurred in Germany and Texas in a year. Consider how fast China got put up. CT coming off the line in early 2022. Is it too long to wait, well that's up to you. I want a CT - but don't have a pressing need - so the wait is OK by me. YMMV
 

Hunter Sawyer

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BillyGee

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Tesla shanghai began construction in December 2018 and had cars rolling out in August 2019. Using that as a barometer, I would be surprised if we don't see any vehicles out of Giga Austin in July since that's one year after groundbreaking. Optimistically they could have Cats rolling out this year and they're hoping to move prototype teams from Folsom to Austin in July. Ideally, that means some consumers will have the yoke in their hands by the end of the year.

Not sure why we're seeing so many pessimistic threads like this lately where one piece of news is extrapolated and twisted to mean that the CT is way behind schedule. Here I thought this forum was about nerding out and getting excited.
 

Diehard

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Elon Musk has said that CT is a top priority.

He also said that the design is finalized so this would be hard to believe.
Everything can not be top priority simultaneously. He also said, they will do Y first in Texas. There is a conflict between the two statement and if you look at what is happening in Texas, everything is geared toward getting Y out the door.

There is a significant deference between “Design is complete". And all tests are successful. This is a completely new and radical design. It is a truck. It has to do a lot more than transporting a couple of people on the smooth pavement. I have no idea where things are with the casting machine. Let’s assume IDRA does a perfect job with this first ever machine and deliver a functional casting machine but on the first load test, the cast in the new CT cracks and they realize FEA test didn’t represent the real world perfectly and they got the design wrong. Or on the crash test something unexpected happens on how the frame or battery takes the impact. Back to drawing board. To be frank I don’t have any personal experience with manufacturing process but my impression is design is just the first step.

All that said, I have a lot of faith in Tesla to make it work but there are limits to what mortals can do in a limited time frame and Tesla with all it’s lofty goals is still a business and MY is guaranteed to produce a high margin profit and they know how to make it. For CT, demand is a slam dunk but making it is still a bit of crap shoot. For us, it all comes down to if you need something now and you have to get a real truck or if you can wait for an imaginary one indefinitely (no guaranteed delivery date). As of now, I can wait because I don’t drive much and my truck still kinda works. But if my situation changes and I am still in the dark with when I will get my CT, I will just have to stop one of you guys in a parking lot a few years down the road as an outsider to get the scoop.
 

TechOps

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I expect 2021 for CT to be much like 2017 was for Model 3s. Early production testing for employee purchases during late summer, issues scaling, a couple of iterations on manufacturing ops, and a small number in customers' hands by year end. Then full throttle the following year, and the rest is history.
 

DarinCT

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I expect 2021 for CT to be much like 2017 was for Model 3s. Early production testing for employee purchases during late summer, issues scaling, a couple of iterations on manufacturing ops, and a small number in customers' hands by year end. Then full throttle the following year, and the rest is history.
There you go splashing "probably" on very well intentioned "hopeful". LOL.

Seriously though, a lot has been learned since then. The plant has been designed from scratch instead of ported. In other words, I agree just more of a believer. The thing about being a believer, it only needs a want to believe. Also, I think we can agree that even if Tesla miraculously hits every mark perfectly, it won't matter without batteries.
 

TechOps

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There you go splashing "probably" on very well intentioned "hopeful". LOL.
I'm not quite as optimistic as Elon..lol

Seriously though, a lot has been learned since then. The plant has been designed from scratch instead of ported. In other words, I agree just more of a believer. The thing about being a believer, it only needs a want to believe. Also, I think we can agree that even if Tesla miraculously hits every mark perfectly, it won't matter without batteries.
True, there are major manufacturing lessons learned, counterbalanced by some new risks and wildcards such as having a brand new massive plant, and a totally new manufacturing technique (a couple, actually, with the CT). On balance, I have more confidence in rapid success than 2017.

As an aside, if you or anyone else wants to help them nail down the battery supply and accelerate the CT timeline, please click this link and submit your resume :) I would do it myself if my engineering experience were in high-speed manufacturing.

https://www.tesla.com/careers/searc...ng-operational-leader-gigafactory-texas-76352
 

rr6013

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GigaAustin may be Tesla last USA based factory. USA is not China and the labor market, contractors and length of time to achieve completion is a competitive disadvantage. BEV is fast industry with 400 competitors and Tesla has 100’s of thousands in pre-orders booked for every model.

Gov’t subsidies, tax incentives and petrol prices are drivers fueling more demand. TX can’t even house Tesla employees. SO China it is, even though Germany was a nice try by Tesla. Its co-development Toyota partnership has all the markings of a global strategy.

Tesla needn’t build when it own’s the competitive advantage technology. TSLA can pivot to “Tesla-driven” and focus on enabling technologies as SpaceX has cornered reuse and lift.
 

Diehard

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I think we can agree that even if Tesla miraculously hits every mark perfectly, it won't matter without batteries.
Bingo. If there are constraints and choices to be made in 2022, question becomes, which one Tesla will consider low risk, high reward? MY or CT? I think MY will have priority because there will be other EVs in the market that serve the same function and Tesla will have to sell as many of them as fast as it can before price has to drop. CT on the other hand does not have any real competition (Specs/price wise) and there is not much risk of losing demand. And environmentally speaking the same battery juice in MY will put more green miles on the road than it would in CT. Less complication to accommodate charging for MY while infrastructure gets ready for CT. So if there is a battery fight between the two, I think Tesla may throttle the CT output in favor of MY as long as there is demand for MY.

Lets hope Panasonic can get the kinks out of the process so CT and Semi customers can be happy campers too.
 
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beeeasybro

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Unless Elon likes toying with people, the radio silence on CT gives me the impression that no news is bad news. Model Y seems to be the golden child right now and unless someone else is able to light a fire under Tesla’s booty with a compelling electric truck (which seems unlikely), CT will stay low on Tesla’s priority list. To guesstimate how long the delay will be, we will have to watch Y orders and new battery development and manufacturing progress. Hopefully, Elon’s silence is mostly about the batteries and not an unforeseen major design flaw that they don’t know how to remedy. My tolerance for staying in the dark is fairly low and if this keeps up, may drop out and come back to CT in 10 years or so (if I am still around).
Isn’t the saying no news is good news though?? Boy times have changed 😂
 
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