Cybertruck delayed; writing is on the wall.

RoadbossTX

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I don’t mind waiting for the battery just send me the CT without and I will sit in it and make humming noises until they are available.
I don't mind slumming it for awhile driving my Q7. Besides, the $100 deposit is a no brainer hedge against inflation. I have a deposit on two CT's, and will be laughing all the way to the bank with a tidy profit from selling one of them!!!
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damnitjim

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Unless Elon likes toying with people, the radio silence on CT gives me the impression that no news is bad news. Model Y seems to be the golden child right now and unless someone else is able to light a fire under Tesla’s booty with a compelling electric truck (which seems unlikely), CT will stay low on Tesla’s priority list. To guesstimate how long the delay will be, we will have to watch Y orders and new battery development and manufacturing progress. Hopefully, Elon’s silence is mostly about the batteries and not an unforeseen major design flaw that they don’t know how to remedy. My tolerance for staying in the dark is fairly low and if this keeps up, may drop out and come back to CT in 10 years or so (if I am still around).
GM just announced an entire line of vehicles on a “surfboard” type modular platform, including pickups. If the only motivator here is competition, I think we have a contender.
https://www.gm.com/commitments/electrification.html
 

Diehard

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Faffle

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I expect production to begin in the 4th quarter. Slow, probably painful production is to be expected and Wall Street doesn't seem to expect any high volume production for years. I hope the delay of new model s,x is because of the ct pilot line in Fremont. If so, that news is actually good news for us. Time will tell.
 

carpedatum

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Comparisons to Roadster 2 are illogical, IMO. That is a low-volume trophy car that only indirectly supports the company's mission and it is smart to de-prioritize it. Pickup trucks are another matter. Change the emissions footprint of the American pickup truck and you've actually done something.

It took about a year and a half to get the Model 3 from reveal to early deliveries, and that was a bet-the-company vehicle. I want to see initial quality of the CT be much higher, I want the production ramp to be shorter, and I want none of this to create an existential crisis for Tesla, which now has much larger balls to juggle.

Since I want all that, I figure a couple of years or so from the reveal to initial production is not unreasonable. I am allowing, of course, for that whole bit about making a factory from scratch and manufacturing a highly-evolved battery design at scale, not to mention whatever else Tesla has challenged itself with on this design that we don't know about yet.

This is April. This thread would be better off in November (at the 2 year mark), but hopefully by then there will be plenty of evidence that it isn't needed.
 

akcoyote

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Personally, I think almost all new or refreshed Tesla vehicles are delayed due to battery cell constraints. Only when the battery cell manufacturing facilities at Gigas Texas & Shanghai are ramped up, along with Panasonic at Giga Nevada figuring out how to make 4680s at scale, will we start to see CTs produced in any reasonable quantity.

I do not expect to see Giga Texas produce more than a few sample CTs before Q3 2022 - mostly due to a lack of 4680 battery cells. Currently the Model Y is the priority for Giga Texas because it requires fewer battery cells.
 

Cybercarlson

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"Patience is a virtue"
just sit back and chillax.🤗

My impatience (CT wise) dissappeared as soone as a MY order had been placed.
For my wife, but I will be allowed to play with it.:p

Now I have something to look forward too. Something that actually can be seen on the roads now.
Not so far away...

I just have to wait until "Giga G" (ermany) is up and running and they have started and finished building the 4680 plant next door and all the preorders from Europe are fullfilled.......

Maybe the CT will actually be faster :unsure: ( Impatience is a beast, hard to put down.....)

On the other hand as long as FSD (and I do not mean "Beta") is pushed further out I do not mind not to pay a large amount for a CT that can not drive itself (legally or at all).

The MY is intended to mostly be driven (old fashioned I know) but the CT's should be able to "earn their juice".

Off topic: the MY out of Giga G better have Vehicle to Load (220V/16Amp like the IONIQ 5....competition raises the expectations.)

One good thing about long wait times:
Something better can come along while you wait. (deposit fully refundable......)


It will come the time to finally deliver on old promises #Elon.
 

Old Pro

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Like @Crissa said above and @cybertrucktruckguy said in his battery ramp video, the volume will be there. It just won't be there in 2021. @Zybane , we're in April 2021, consider how much construction had occurred in Germany and Texas in a year. Consider how fast China got put up. CT coming off the line in early 2022. Is it too long to wait, well that's up to you. I want a CT - but don't have a pressing need - so the wait is OK by me. YMMV
Patience is a Virtue
 

dcg

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As someone that's been lurking and hanging out on the Bronco6G forum I feel your pain!

Ford has had numerous delays this past year and their attempts to emulate the Tesla reservation system have not gone well.

Meanwhile I've been waiting 6 months for a new couch. Covid screwed a bunch of stuff last year and the chip shortages continue. Even the mighty Elon isn't immune from global realities.

My two cents.
 

rr6013

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Elon spoke to 4680 production on Tesla Q1 call today. His assertion was that the Lion Nickle 4680 cell are 18 mos. away from SOP(StartofProduction).
Mentioned early in the call was Tesla rampup of MY production 2021 worldwide to achieve 1st in class sales worldwide. No mention of Cybertruck.
Later in call Elon spoke to the brain aneurisms achieving production goals without going broke. Tesla is only new company to make it. Which kinda framed the Cybertruck question.
 

Diehard

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Elon spoke to 4680 production on Tesla Q1 call today. His assertion was that the Lion Nickle 4680 cell are 18 mos. away from SOP(StartofProduction).
Mentioned early in the call was Tesla rampup of MY production 2021 worldwide to achieve 1st in class sales worldwide. No mention of Cybertruck.
Later in call Elon spoke to the brain aneurisms achieving production goals without going broke. Tesla is only new company to make it. Which kinda framed the Cybertruck question.
Thanks for sharing. Very helpful with setting expectations.
 

intimidator

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When they first announced deliveries beginning in late 2021, I think most of us took that with a grain of salt. With Elon showing up in the Cybertruck prototype at the Austin construction site and not providing any update; combined with the delay and push-back of any new information AT ALL on the Cybertruck, let alone revealing the updated version, I think we are in for quite a wait.

The Plaid+ Model S which uses the same battery and driveline as the Tri-motor Cybertruck, on the Tesla website now says first deliveries summer 2022. Over a year from now for a car chassis that already exists, and has existed for a long time.

And look what happened to the Tesla Roadster. Those poor saps put $50,000 deposits down for a car first supposed to release in 2020. Now it's vaporware and has basically vanished off the face of the planet. That was a car revealed FOUR years ago.

And then there is this:

https://www.mining.com/tesla-hit-by-battery-shortage-amid-rallying-lithium-cobalt-nickel-prices/

So as Cybertruck reservation holder ~6,000, I don't expect my truck now until 2023.
Tesla released an Earnings Report today. It mentions delivering the Tesla Semi in 2021. It mentions producing Model Ys at GigiTexas by the end of 2021. It does NOT mention the CyberTruck. At all. If the CyberTruck was going to start rolling off the line in Texas, it would have been mentioned in the Earnings Report.

There was no mention. a + b = c
 

intimidator

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Personally, I think almost all new or refreshed Tesla vehicles are delayed due to battery cell constraints. Only when the battery cell manufacturing facilities at Gigas Texas & Shanghai are ramped up, along with Panasonic at Giga Nevada figuring out how to make 4680s at scale, will we start to see CTs produced in any reasonable quantity.

I do not expect to see Giga Texas produce more than a few sample CTs before Q3 2022 - mostly due to a lack of 4680 battery cells. Currently the Model Y is the priority for Giga Texas because it requires fewer battery cells.
That is a pretty downer statement...but you might be pretty accurate.

We know for a fact that Elon said "we would have to get lucky to produce any CyberTrucks in 2021".

Translation: that will mean a trickle of production will start at some point in 2022. A trickle.

Translation2: I am not getting a Cybertruck anytime before the end of 2023. Maybe 2024. This sucks. Maybe I will get a Rivian to hold me over.
 

Julien

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I want to replay to a bunch of messages but that would take ages, so I'll put it all in one comment...

The reason Plaid S is delayed is because there is too much demand, so although those who ordered months ago will get it within a few months, those who order now will get it when the website says.

By the time Austin is pumping out CTs, they should be pumping out 4680s as well, meaning that although there are battery shortages now, it should be sustainable by late 21 - early 22.

The CT rollout shouldn't be quite like the 3 because Tesla has learned a bit since then (look at the splendid Y rollout. Also, only a couple of months after unveiling, they were already building new Model S' to test out) and Tesla is already building a pilot line in Fremont to test manufacturing processes and smooth out any creases before they start to roll out the CT in Austin.
 

DMC-81

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GM just announced an entire line of vehicles on a “surfboard” type modular platform, including pickups. If the only motivator here is competition, I think we have a contender.
https://www.gm.com/commitments/electrification.html
Ah yes, the "skateboard" platform resurfaces again with a new name. I remember being excited about the possibilities in..... 2002 with the Hy-wire concept:
https://www.supercars.net/blog/gm-hy-wire-concept/

*sigh* Yet another forgone opportunity to jump ahead of the competition, only to be committed to now so that they can try to catch up with the leader. I guess it's appropriate that they re-branded from GM to gm.

I say this as an owner of 2 GM cars. The newest one is a 2010 (Bumblebee). It goes like a bat out of hell, but can't hold the time or date in the electronic stereo. WTH! I'll take a hard pass on an electric car from gm.
 
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