Cybertruck delayed; writing is on the wall.

Sc0rPs

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Doesn't bother me, would like it sooner than later but it is what it is. Still think 2022 is when most of us will have our trucks.
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CostcoSamples

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I am actually very optimistic about production. The factory is going up really fast. Radio silence from Tesla and Elon about CT is not evidence of bad news.

I predict 20k CT deliveries this year. I think they will start deliveries by end of October.
 

radami1

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Tesla has all these money machines waiting in the wings and all of them need some crucial component to come onstage and start performing. There's the model Y which is just starting to come into its own in China but needs the Berlin factory in Europe and the Texas factory in the US to really reach full potential. There's the Cybertruck which needs the Texas factory, a finalized design and batteries. There's the semi which needs the Texas factory and batteries and a little more range. There's the FSD which needs the Doge and some finishing touches and some responsible customers to keep testing the software.

The model 3 made its predecessors, the models S and X look like peanuts. The model Y is starting to outpace the model 3 and will soon dwarf it. It looks like the Cybertruck with its unfathomable number of preorders will tower over the model Y and the money-making potential of the semi and FSD are complete unknowns but likely big.

Where we go from here is a steep trajectory but time will tell. It's going to be a wild ride.
 

Bigvbear

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I am actually very optimistic about production. The factory is going up really fast. Radio silence from Tesla and Elon about CT is not evidence of bad news.

I predict 20k CT deliveries this year. I think they will start deliveries by end of October.
Love the optimism, but reality is we will be lucky to see any CT roll off the line this year, even then those will be production prototypes.
 

lancethibault

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I don't have patience for musk who must think it funny to keep buyers uninformed. Just tell us what is going on with a product you promised us. This is such bullshit. This is why others will eventually surpass him. He's a hero in only his own mind. If my second choice is built first by others then that's what I'll buy. Fanboys can have this hunk of metal.
What's your second choice?
 

JJ_Tex

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I don't have patience for musk who must think it funny to keep buyers uninformed. Just tell us what is going on with a product you promised us. This is such bullshit. This is why others will eventually surpass him. He's a hero in only his own mind. If my second choice is built first by others then that's what I'll buy. Fanboys can have this hunk of metal.

Geez. I'm no Tesla fanboy by any means, but I can at least recognize that Elon/Tesla are innovators. Innovators are typically not big production powerhouses like the big automakers.

Even looking back a bit at history when cars were new technology, there were massive delays and it took much trial and error to get to where they are. Just a quick search on the Model T's wikipedia page shows that this innovative new product for its time had many delays. Look at their ramp up schedule for the Model T, which started off making 11 cars a month and took several years to perfect:

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Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Model_T
 

MEDICALJMP

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A lot o us “old timers” here made our predictions for production date way back in May/June 2019. I had September 2023. Listed many great reasons why, all that being very optimistic for a normal company. I have never seen any company move with the lightening speed of Musk & Co. Say they don’t make a single production vehicle before January 2022, that is still 21 months faster than I was betting on.
I say, “Score!”
 

CostcoSamples

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Building BEVs at high volume is no simple task. Keep in mind nobody else has done it yet. Tesla model 3 and Y being the only high volume BEVs in the world.

I'm as impatient as the next guy and with reservation #546,000 I'll be waiting for quite a while...
 

TechOps

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Personally, and as a $TSLA shareholder, I was delighted to hear Elon say there is a substantial (>50%) chance that MY could be the best selling vehicle in the world next year or 2023. Given that Tesla is building a new factory and radically improving how the world makes batteries right now, I'm ok devoting that production capacity to MY becoming the best-selling vehicle in the world, even if it means I need to wait a bit longer for the CT.

I will be very surprised if there are *not* some major challenges and delays in learning how to build a folded thick steel exoskeleton EV. No one has ever tried anything like that, and even for smart people, there will be surprises and problems, which they will fix and overcome.

As others have said, competition is good. If Rivian goes to market and does amazingly well, I have no doubt it will spur Tesla to focus on getting the CT to market (as well as the e-F150, etc.)
 

Luke42

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I don't have patience for musk who must think it funny to keep buyers uninformed. Just tell us what is going on with a product you promised us. This is such bullshit. This is why others will eventually surpass him. He's a hero in only his own mind. If my second choice is built first by others then that's what I'll buy. Fanboys can have this hunk of metal.
If this were a legacy automaker, you'd barely hear about the product until it arrived at your dealer's lot. All of their trials and tribulations would be behind the scenes.

Tesla's trials and tribulations are relatively public, and we have a front-row seat.

Personally, I feel like having this front-row seat to all of this is like getting one of the first tickets to live in the future. But that's just me. 🤷‍♂️
 
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