Cybertruck deliveries based on progress of Giga Texas

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intimidator

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I'm still holding on for the surprise of May '21! Let's goooo!!!!

Yes, I know that likely won't happen. 😢
Surprise of May 2021? It sure won't be about the Cybertruck.
MAYBE Tesla will announce the Plaid Model S is coming out early?
...I haven't heard of any May surprises...
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If "my" CyberTruck is not available for delivery until late 2023, I sure will need another vehicle as well.
I have a feeling the initial production runs (the test models that go to Tesla employees for evaluation) might expose a few issues that need to be addressed, but after that I'm hoping that the CT can be rapidly produced in high volume. I believe it is designed specifically for that.

TLDR: I think a huge number of the reservations will be filled before the end of 2022.
 

DarinCT

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...

Honestly, Tesla is pedaling as fast as any company in history in terms of ramping up. So, I don't see how Ford or GM are going to catch Tesla in the production of EVs. Ford/GM are several years behind in development both in terms of software and batteries. Not to mention converting factories to build the new EVs.
tl;dr: I agree, my extra two cents.

I would put the problems of Ford and GM at battery, hardware, and production before software. "Hardware is hard" is a common refrain in the tech industry implying that a line of code, commit, push, CI, and that one stopper is patched. I'm honestly surprised/confused that ICE manufacturers haven't gotten on the FSD train. I really shouldn't be... in order to change the monolith that is the internal combustion platform would require significant cultural shift and as we know that hasn't happened.

Ford has given up on cars save the Mustang so when Tesla produces the S3XY line, it really hasn't hit Ford in the sensitive parts. Ford sells approximately 900,000 F-Series trucks a year. (I couldn't find any F-150 only numbers). Supposedly *cough cough*, 2023 there will be an ev F-150 as well as Ford effectively buying a Rivian model with it's 500 million in seed money. There's also the partnership with VW, which also includes its Argo AI. In other words, Ford is saying all the right things, paying people to do their development, and assuming that they can produce both vehicle and battery at scale. I'm sure Ford thinks it is well-placed but I'm with you, "I don't see how Ford or Gm are going to catch Tesla".
 

Crissa

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Ford has given up on cars because they've convinced their former customers to buy some larger and more profitable.

And Tesla sells cars, so they already ceded an entire territory of designs to Tesla.

-Crissa
 

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I hope they let me pick mine up lol
 

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I'm still holding on for the surprise of May '21! Let's goooo!!!!

Yes, I know that likely won't happen. 😢
We would ALL love to see that happen. It cannot hurt to dream. I must admit that they are cranking pretty hard at GigaAustin right now. If it is possible to extrapolate based on progress there and in Berlin they might well start Model Y production around June and CT production 2-3 months after.
 
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I have a feeling the initial production runs (the test models that go to Tesla employees for evaluation) might expose a few issues that need to be addressed, but after that I'm hoping that the CT can be rapidly produced in high volume. I believe it is designed specifically for that.

TLDR: I think a huge number of the reservations will be filled before the end of 2022.
Best guess say the first 12 months of full on production, Giga Texas can produce 100,000 CyberTrucks. That looks like Jan 2022 to Dec 2022. So if you are in the first 100,000 on the reserve list, you are good. Of course there are 650,000 reservations. So the 2nd 100,000 buyers/customers will get theirs throughout 2023. Or maybe in 2023 they can produce 125-150,000 CTs. Still a lot of folks will be waiting close to the end of 2023 before they get their CT. Some it might be 2024. :-(
 
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We would ALL love to see that happen. It cannot hurt to dream. I must admit that they are cranking pretty hard at GigaAustin right now. If it is possible to extrapolate based on progress there and in Berlin they might well start Model Y production around June and CT production 2-3 months after.
It seems possible they could start rolling out some early CTs in October-ish. I would guess some small batches in October / November. They don't actually have any production prototypes yet so that would seem to be when they will built. I am thinking a few thousand could go to customers in early December?
 

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Best guess say the first 12 months of full on production, Giga Texas can produce 100,000 CyberTrucks. That looks like Jan 2022 to Dec 2022. So if you are in the first 100,000 on the reserve list, you are good. Of course there are 650,000 reservations. So the 2nd 100,000 buyers/customers will get theirs throughout 2023. Or maybe in 2023 they can produce 125-150,000 CTs. Still a lot of folks will be waiting close to the end of 2023 before they get their CT. Some it might be 2024. :-(
I'm probably wrong about this, but I thought the TX plant's first year of production was 50k vehicles; not all of which would be CTs.
 

dukeandtheland

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Looking at the videos of Giga Texas, and comparing those to Giga Berlin, is the realistic estimate that Texas will be finished by late Summer? Which could mean rolling some customers Cybertrucks out the door by Nov/Dec 2021?

I have seen shot in the dark estimates that in December '21 Tesla could produce/delivery 10,000 Cybertrucks for the month.

With a WAG that Texas will then be able to produce 120-130,000 Cybertrucks in 2022.

Assuming out of the 600,000 per orders, about half drop out when their # is called, and we use a factor of Pi, then substract windspeed, is it fair to say if your # is 325,000, expect delivery some time in 2023?

......Might be enough time to take delivery of a Rivian, enjoy it for 2 years, then trade "up" to the Cybertruck.
Well, you forgot to factor in the priority of 3 different trims: tri, dual and single motor. As everyone is expecting, the higher end model, tri-motor is coming out first. Therefore, which trim you chose will significantly affect your actual delivery time. Only after that is determined, the RN queue of the same trim will come into play.
 

Diehard

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Christmas 2025? Wow.
PS I like the Rivian because they actually have prototypes running around North America, and start deliveries in late June 2021.
I like the CyberTruck because it is bad ass and has a 500 mile range. But, my fear is it is a couple of years away.
In school, there was those of us that studied only the night of the exam, and those that studied from the first day of semester. Looking at prototypes of CT and Rivian, I sensed the same difference. I hope, CT is not a pipe dream and some one is really working on it because I Need a vehicle now and holding off for another two to three years just to be disappointed is not going to be fun. My personal needs aside, with the size of the truck market in U.S. there is a lot riding on CT‘s success. This could make a significant dent in EV adoption.
 

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Best guess say the first 12 months of full on production, Giga Texas can produce 100,000 CyberTrucks. That looks like Jan 2022 to Dec 2022. So if you are in the first 100,000 on the reserve list, you are good. Of course there are 650,000 reservations. So the 2nd 100,000 buyers/customers will get theirs throughout 2023. Or maybe in 2023 they can produce 125-150,000 CTs. Still a lot of folks will be waiting close to the end of 2023 before they get their CT. Some it might be 2024. :-(
If all Tesla can produce in the first year of production is 100,000 Cybertrucks, there will be a huge difference between supply and demand. People think current Tesla's don't depreciate much. If this happens, those first year models will resell for more than what we paid for them. I'm glad I ordered a 2nd CT, the resale of the first Dual motor may help pay for the 2nd Trimotor CT.
 

Sirfun

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If all Tesla can produce in the first year of production is 100,000 Cybertrucks, there will be a huge difference between supply and demand. People think current Tesla's don't depreciate much. If this happens, those first year models will resell for more than what we paid for them. I'm glad I ordered a 2nd CT, the resale of the first Dual motor may help pay for the 2nd Trimotor CT. I just wish the orders were closer together.
 
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I'm probably wrong about this, but I thought the TX plant's first year of production was 50k vehicles; not all of which would be CTs.
Only 50,000 in the first year? And if that includes both CTs and other models, than that would be pretty sobering for all of us on the wait list for a CyberTruck. Assuming they start rolling out Dec 2021, and 50,000 total Teslas in the first 12 months, maybe than 30,000 CTs in 2022? Man, that means I will get mine in 2024. Dang.
 

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In school, there was those of us that studied only the night of the exam, and those that studied from the first day of semester. Looking at prototypes of CT and Rivian, I sensed the same difference. I hope, CT is not a pipe dream and some one is really working on it because I Need a vehicle now and holding off for another two to three years just to be disappointed is not going to be fun. My personal needs aside, with the size of the truck market in U.S. there is a lot riding on CT‘s success. This could make a significant dent in EV adoption.
There may be a lot of things I worry about these days, but Tesla not delivering the Cybertruck isn’t even in the list. They have made much more complicated vehicles and even delivered them earlier than anticipated. I am confident that if Giga Austin was complete tomorrow they would be delivering Cybertruck in a few months.
 
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