MEDICALJMP

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Tesla never said there would be a mid gate. Cannot change what never was.
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Tinker71

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But they did say bulletproof….
I suspect the doors will still be made with 3mm SS for bragging rights Tesla never said the entire skin. So people worried about drive by shooting should be fine. BTW. I called it. Not a true exoskeleton of 3 mm though out.
 

Tinker71

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Cybertruck 2 will have upgraded battery options. Possibly more compact motors. I do think this estimate is as good as any. There will be 30-40% pass rate and there won't be a need to produce more than 250k per year.
There won't be a 500 mile version to start with. So even though most people rarely tow, the CT won't be replacing many trucks. The big 3 are catching up.

Selling 250000 units per year is still a huge win for Tesla and electrification. BTW a CT is only about half as efficient as a M3 for moving 2 people around. We should be driving trucks unless we need to.
 

Bkent100

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I suspect the doors will still be made with 3mm SS for bragging rights Tesla never said the entire skin. So people worried about drive by shooting should be fine. BTW. I called it. Not a true exoskeleton of 3 mm though out.
I wouldn’t want a bulletproof vest that has a few areas where bullets get through…that would be called “not bulletproof”… lol. Of what you say is true, cybertruck is not bulletproof!
 


Tinker71

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I wouldn’t want a bulletproof vest that has a few areas where bullets get through…that would be called “not bulletproof”… lol. Of what you say is true, cybertruck is not bulletproof!
Don't many bullet vest have weak spots on the sides and throat areas? Many are designed for front and back shots.
 

Art O'Connor

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I do not see how anyone can make a prediction of what will happen when not even the first production Cybertruck has been built. And it just adds to the frustration :-(
Exactly. The alternator just went out in my 2010 Chev 2500HD Silverado. You would think, being only 14 years old, GM would still stock the alternator? Nope! My local dealer here in Reno said "discontinued". The parts manager found one in Colfax - an hour down the road in the PRC. And, yes, I tried Summit Auto Parts: 18 December estimated delivery! No luck at Delco. I think GM is trying to force me into a new Sliverado E .....

Come on. Elon, you need to push CT out NOW! Four years is long enough. That E is looking pretty good ...
 

Jhodgesatmb

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Exactly. The alternator just went out in my 2010 Chev 2500HD Silverado. You would think, being only 14 years old, GM would still stock the alternator? Nope! My local dealer here in Reno said "discontinued". The parts manager found one in Colfax - an hour down the road in the PRC. And, yes, I tried Summit Auto Parts: 18 December estimated delivery! No luck at Delco. I think GM is trying to force me into a new Sliverado E .....

Come on. Elon, you need to push CT out NOW! Four years is long enough. That E is looking pretty good ...
You tried all the local auto dismantlers? I used to find parts for my VW when I lived in Michigan at 'junk yards'. But I hear you. You gotta survive until CTs start rolling off the line.
 

EVSport7

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Cybertruck production should be 400/week byJan 2024. They almost have that much battery capacity right now. Within a few months, battery up to 1000/week by Feb, and 2000/week in May, 4000/week in Aug. 7k/week November. So 56k CT in the last 8 weeks of the year. Still only a bit over 100k for the year I suppose. But they'd be over a 300k/year run rate, from almost nothing. Maybe a lot of us will be waiting until 2025.
Genuine question. Are these just wild speculation numbers or is this based off of historical data with 2170? According to the newest data, they are at enough production to have around 600 a week right now. Has there been any new info on when the other supplier like Panasonic will switch over to 4680 to help achieve these numbers?
 

anionic1

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I like to say I was right on here a lot, but this I think will prove me wrong. I didn’t expect that the 4680 battery ramp would be so slow. Even at 1M units per week currently. That’s probably only 30k to 40k CTs annually. Obviously they have other sources. But to get to 250k annually is going to take a lot of batteries. And with every vendor scrambling for batteries currently it’s going to be tough to get the production IMO. I thought the gigapress would be the bottleneck but now I actually think it is batteries.
 


Art O'Connor

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You tried all the local auto dismantlers? I used to find parts for my VW when I lived in Michigan at 'junk yards'. But I hear you. You gotta survive until CTs start rolling off the line.
I would not trust a used alternator. Rebuilt is different animal.
 

Coolbreeze704

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[QUOTE="Arctic_White, post: 184462, member: 10049"

Unless the market for pickup trucks somehow shrinks, I just don't see how Tesla does not make 1M+ Cybertrucks annually by 2030. Ramping up will take time, however. How much time is anyone's guess.
[/QUOTE]
I think the market explodes.

I think many would not drive a pickup because there was no need to pay the fuel cost penalty. I love full size trucks but drove Jetta TDI's for years to save on my daily/monthly/yearly cost to commute and use.

Now my smooth quiet pickup cost me peanuts to drive and adds utility when I need. It is even the vehicle of choice when my son, wife and grandson want to take a trip together because of the room inside and the space for all the unnecessary suitcases my wife and stepdaughter HAVE to bring.
 

charliemagpie

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If Tesla wishes to produce 20 million cars per year, we need say ~20 billion 4680's per year. (IF , maybe.. but a damn lot)

The scaling will need to have a certain trajectory .. going up fast.
 

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If Tesla wishes to produce 20 million cars per year, we need say ~20 billion 4680's per year. (IF , maybe.. but a damn lot)

The scaling will need to have a certain trajectory .. going up fast.
I don’t know about that. I don’t think Tesla will ever limit themselves to a single battery. We’ve got 3 or 4 different batteries right now? And there are a couple new batteries coming out next year? And what about 2025? I believe Tesla will continue to roll out refreshes and new models and can pivot to the latest and greatest with new technology. The 4680 will fill the Semi and CT. But the 3+? Y+? New model?
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