Cybertruck Deliveries Will 'Far Exceed' Wall Street Estimates (says Gary Black, founder of Future Fund)

[ModelAZ]

Updated with Benzinga article:

Tesla To Shoot Past 2025 EPS Consensus As Cybertruck Deliveries Will 'Far Exceed' Wall Street Estimates, Says Analyst


Gary Black, co-founder and managing partner of Future Fund tweets about the Cybertruck's important to Tesla's overall growth, even if not from direct sales.





$TSLA shorts really don’t get how important Cytruck will be to growing the entire TSLA franchise in 2024. I argued non-stop with $TSLAQ capos in 2020 that M-Y would grow the entire TSLA franchise while bringing in a whole new TAM (CUVs). Of course TSLAQ disagreed, saying M-Y was just an oversized M-3. TSLA volume growth exploded in 2021 as the entire TSLA franchise caught fire. The same will happen in 2024 when Cytruck launches and expands TSLA TAM to pickups (20% of market). Potential customers will see the Cytruck in person or on social media and go to the TSLA website or store and buy another TSLA model even if they don’t buy a Cytruck.

TSLA %YoY vol growth:
2020 +36%
2021 +87%
2022 +40%
2023 +41%
2024 +27% (Street)
2024 +53% (GDB est)

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[sstevens805]

Not to derail your post, but it is important which is why I feel pricing has to stay closer to the 3/Y given the 350k production/year goal they've established or at leased mentioned. I believe it'll be closer to the price of a Y than the price of an S. Plus, if we're honest it's visually polarizing. Those of us on this site love it, but I don't believe the mainstream feels the same way . . . yet. I know this post had nothing to do with price, but that's where my mind immediately jumped.

 

[AlDente]

Canned isn't the correct term. The Model Y was a logical and wildly popular/successful extension of the Model 3 with a very high TAM. There is a tendency to get into the weeds here but simply put, the Cybertruck is a very different product to manufacturer. Although many are unhappy with the delays, they are understandable. The 9K Giga press was a (the?) significant pacing item for Cybertruck production. The SS skin is another significant deviation from previous models and comes with new challenges. It's almost there and they will sell them as fast as they can make them. Tesla shorts are annoying ...

 

[fritter63]

Tesla shorts are annoying ...

SOMETIMES......

 

[Gurule92]

Not to derail your post, but it is important which is why I feel pricing has to stay closer to the 3/Y given the 350k production/year goal they've established or at leased mentioned. I believe it'll be closer to the price of a Y than the price of an S. Plus, if we're honest it's visually polarizing. Those of us on this site love it, but I don't believe the mainstream feels the same way . . . yet. I know this post had nothing to do with price, but that's where my mind immediately jumped.

I think you should make a pricing thread tbh. We need one

 

[Gurule92]

SOMETIMES......

I bought these for my wife. She she rarely wears them. But fathers day was nice lol

 

[sstevens805]

I think you should make a pricing thread tbh. We need one

It'll be the pricing thread to rule all pricing threads

 

[CostcoSamples]

I think we're gonna get REKT with pricing... demand is too high, TSLA will be forced to jack up prices until supply/demand stabilizes.

 

[Greshnab]

I think we're gonna get REKT with pricing... demand is too high, TSLA will be forced to jack up prices until supply/demand stabilizes.

I don't understand this logic... the model Y was released in 2019.. they basically sold every unit they could build till they had to open factories in other places to build more...

So the model Y is a GREAT example of what tesla does when demand exceeds supply. the FIRST price increase for the model Y was in 2023, and it was minor.

why do you think Tesla will suffer a complete change of direction and price gouge with the CT when they have NEVER done this in the past?

 

[Crissa]

I think we're gonna get REKT with pricing... demand is too high, TSLA will be forced to jack up prices until supply/demand stabilizes.

Raising the price would permanently damage the brand reputation - it wouldn't change how many trucks they get out the door the first year.

So why do it?

-Crissa

 

[Arctic_White]

Raising the price would permanently damage the brand reputation - it wouldn't change how many trucks they get out the door the first year.

So why do it?

-Crissa

They won't raise prices in the first year/launch edition. They will, however, start increasing prices in the next production year if Tesla realizes that demand far exceeds supply.

Tesla literally did that in 2020 a mere months after they launched the Model Y: it was $69K CAD for LR AWD version and increased it to $75K CAD. They'd later drop the price back down to $69K in 2021 and then slowly increased the prices until it hit $85K by summer of 2022. They have since dropped the price back down to $69K CAD in 2023 for the same LR AWD.

For those that have kept Tesla's prices, we understand that the initial prices will be very close to what Tesla had initially stated. But I'm of the opinion that Tesla will raise prices if (and only if) demand > supply.

 

[Arctic_White]

I don't understand this logic... the model Y was released in 2019.. they basically sold every unit they could build till they had to open factories in other places to build more...

So the model Y is a GREAT example of what tesla does when demand exceeds supply. the FIRST price increase for the model Y was in 2023, and it was minor.

why do you think Tesla will suffer a complete change of direction and price gouge with the CT when they have NEVER done this in the past?

You are so wrong here. See my post above on how quickly Tesla raised (and lowered) prices of the Model Y throughout 2020, 2021, 2022, and now in 2023.

Dynamic prices is the name of the game.

 

[cvalue13]

For those that have kept Tesla's prices, we understand that the initial prices will be very close to what Tesla had initially stated.

Isn’t that true to the extent the vehicle released is similar to the vehicle announced @ a given price?

CT seems to have had enough material updates or features, at least as options, that it’s unclear how that will apply to CT models released?

 

[Arctic_White]

Isn’t that true to the extent the vehicle released is similar to the vehicle announced @ a given price?

CT seems to have had enough material updates or features, at least as options, that it’s unclear how that will apply to CT models released?

Good points. No one knows but I'm in the camp that the initial prices will be a lot closer to what they had listed rather than $100K. LOL.

I'm thinking $80K for tri- or quad-motor and 420 miles.
$60K for dual motor and 300+ miles.

And Tesla will raise (or lower) prices to ensure that they find the market-clearing price. I know this is a sensitive topic as many posters and long-time reservation holders want Tesla to price it right. But Tesla will price it to a) maximize their profits, and b) more importantly find a price that matches supply to the demand.

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