CyberGus

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The Tesla Cybertruck is likely to be a 'cult car' with limited volume says Morgan Stanley

Mar 09, 2023 07:45AM ET

By Michael Elkins
Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating and $220.00 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). After speaking with clients, analysts feel there may be some room to manage expectations about the significance of the Cybertruck.

There are some who believe that Tesla may sell many hundreds of thousands of Cybertrucks annually. However, analysts think it will more likely be an enthusiast/cult car with far more limited volume. Somewhere closer to 50k units/year.

“The Cybertruck is an important element of Tesla’s futurist brand image,” write analysts. “One of the most interesting features of the truck is the lack of a Tesla emblem anywhere on its exterior. The truck itself is emblematic of the company and the risks it is willing to take to push the envelope and reinvent so many aspects of what it means to be an auto manufacturer. We feel the Cybertruck carries more value in a cultural/zeitgeist sense than in a direct economic sense. At the same time, we encourage our readers to ask themselves: how many Cybertrucks can roll up to a parent-teacher conference or youth soccer match at the same time before losing some of that indescribable… something?”

In November of 2019, when Tesla first unveiled the Cybertruck, the company’s share price was around $22 with a market cap of just under $65 billion. At the time, Tesla was just beginning to post positive GAAP profit and was still ramping up its Shanghai plant.

“A lot has changed since Franz von Holzhausen threw a metal ball at the ‘Armor Glass’ window of the Cybertruck in November 2019,” write analysts. “The truck is real and we had a great time with it last week behind the Austin plant. But financially it may be more of a ‘side-show’ to the Tesla story today.”

Morgan Stanley still thinks the Cybertruck is an important product for Tesla in many ways. At the same time, they think investors can consider that Tesla’s mission, and the expectations embedded in its $650B market cap, has expanded exponentially since 2019.

investing-new.png

 

John K

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I never thought I was a cult member.

it is not like I would give them money for their proprietary products… ummm

Nor would I commit to an annual monetary contract… (data package)

I do not dress in their swag…. (Tesla broken window t-shirt, hoodie, hat)

.
.
.
I’m a cult member
 
Last edited:

Jhodgesatmb

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I never thought I was a cult member.

it is not like I would give them money for their proprietary products… ummm

Nor would I commit to an annual monetary contract… (data package)

I do not dress in their swag…. (Tesla broken window t-shirt, hoodie, hat)

.
.
.
I’m a cult member
I do not consider myself an Elon groupie as I think that he says way too many stupid things in public, does stupid things like buying Twitter, I do not like his politics, and I do not like how he plays favorites. But I do love his vision for sustainability and I love Tesla vehicles.

I do wear Tesla swag
I do have a monetary contract (both insurance and data plan)

I definitely consider myself a Cybertruck fanboy, but it is because I love the truck design's focus on function over form (not to mention I love the technology in it). And it hits my funtional requirements: 3 mm stainless skin, 500+ mile range.

I think that most wall street analysts have the brain power of a 2x4.
 

firsttruck

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The Tesla Cybertruck is likely to be a 'cult car' with limited volume says Morgan Stanley

investing-new.png
Mar 09, 2023 07:45AM ET

By Michael Elkins
Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating and $220.00 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). After speaking with clients, analysts feel there may be some room to manage expectations about the significance of the Cybertruck.

There are some who believe that Tesla may sell many hundreds of thousands of Cybertrucks annually. However, analysts think it will more likely be an enthusiast/cult car with far more limited volume. Somewhere closer to 50k units/year.
Hogwash!!!

Tesla has over 1 million reservations for Cybertruck that should be less expensive and more capable than Ford Lightning EV.

By 2026, Tesla should be selling Cybertruck at a minimum 200K annual run rate.

----------------------------

How many Ford Lightnings are pre sold?
Ford kept getting steady demand for the F-150 Lightning and added about 80,000 reservations for a total of 120,000 pre-orders by the end of
Ford says it now has nearly 200,000 reservations for F-150 Lightning, or 3 years of backlog
2021Dec07
https://electrek.co/2021/12/07/ford-f-150-lightning-reservations-3-years-backlog/

----------------------------

Ford tripling F-150 Lightning, doubling Mach E production in 2023
Here’s how many EVs Ford plans to produce in 2023
Ford said in a press release Friday it will “boost production of its popular EVs” after a “strong start to 2023 sales.”
Here are the EV production targets Ford looks to meet by the end of this year.
F-150 Lightning: 150,000 annual run rate
Mustang Mach-E: 210,000 annual run rate
By Peter Johnson
Mar 3 2023
https://electrek.co/2023/03/03/heres-how-many-evs-ford-plans-to-produce-2023/

----------------------------

.....
“The Cybertruck is an important element of Tesla’s futurist brand image,” write analysts. “One of the most interesting features of the truck is the lack of a Tesla emblem anywhere on its exterior. The truck itself is emblematic of the company and the risks it is willing to take to push the envelope and reinvent so many aspects of what it means to be an auto manufacturer. We feel the Cybertruck carries more value in a cultural/zeitgeist sense than in a direct economic sense. At the same time, we encourage our readers to ask themselves: how many Cybertrucks can roll up to a parent-teacher conference or youth soccer match at the same time before losing some of that indescribable… something?”
What!!! Boo Hoo somebody else might have the same truck as I do !!!!!!!

In U.S. full-size pickup trucks by Ford, GMC, Chevy, RAM, Toyota are best selling vehicles.

The best-selling light trucks in the United States in 2021
726,004 Ford F-series (150/250/350/450) - which except for color they mostly all look alike.
569,388 RAM - which except for color they mostly all look alike.
519,774 Chevrolet Silverado - which except for color they mostly all look alike.
252, 520 Toyota Tacoma - which except for color they mostly all look alike.
248,924 GMC Sierra - which except for color they mostly all look alike.
Published by Mathilde Carlier
Jan 18, 2022
https://www.statista.com/statistics...e-united-states-from-january-to-october-2011/

If they want a different color with Cybertruck they can get a color vinyl wrap.
 
Last edited:

FutureBoy

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Hogwash!!!

Tesla has over 1 million reservations for Cybertruck that should be less expensive and more capable than Ford Lightning EV.

By 2026, Tesla should be selling Cybertruck at a minimum 200K annual run rate.
Some group being a cult is often just in contrast to whatever group is making the statement. I mean look at the Romans. They considered Christianity to be a cult. How many christians are there now? Morgan Stanley may see CT enthusiasts as a small cult. But wait till the see the sales numbers over time. Perhaps they will call us a large cult. Or their analysts may even decide they want to join. Then the traditionalist ICE truck guys may become the small cult that doesn't want to move forward.

Now, there are some seriously dangerous groups that are seen as cults. So not trying to minimize that issue. But generally, when I see someone resort to calling a group a cult, it just means they don't have a rational reason to make the group look bad. So they result to name calling. In general it tends to show their weak argument more than anything about said group.
 


foxmaster7!

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I never thought I was a cult member.

it is not like I would give them money for their proprietary products… ummm

Nor would I commit to an annual monetary contract… (data package)

I do not dress in their swag…. (Tesla broken window t-shirt, hoodie, hat)

.
.
.
I’m a cult member

oh my - so how much is the expected total expense to own a CT? Install a home charging station + data package? Im 100% new to EV and Tesla. I am not happy about having to buy the $15k fully automated Add-on. So, if base price is $40k + 15K for fully auto --- what are we looking at all up and in?
 

Macgreiner

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I do not consider myself an Elon groupie as I think that he says way too many stupid things in public, does stupid things like buying Twitter, I do not like his politics, and I do not like how he plays favorites. But I do love his vision for sustainability and I love Tesla vehicles.
THIS!
Im a big Tesla fan, not so much an Elon fan. You can be one and not the other.No need for guilt by association.
 

sstevens805

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Whatever it takes to get my CT. Now pass me my purple koolaid and patchouli
 

Mdub

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Hogwash!!!

Tesla has over 1 million reservations for Cybertruck that should be less expensive and more capable than Ford Lightning EV.

By 2026, Tesla should be selling Cybertruck at a minimum 200K annual run rate.

----------------------------

How many Ford Lightnings are pre sold?
Ford kept getting steady demand for the F-150 Lightning and added about 80,000 reservations for a total of 120,000 pre-orders by the end of
Ford says it now has nearly 200,000 reservations for F-150 Lightning, or 3 years of backlog
2021Dec07
https://electrek.co/2021/12/07/ford-f-150-lightning-reservations-3-years-backlog/

----------------------------

Ford tripling F-150 Lightning, doubling Mach E production in 2023
Here’s how many EVs Ford plans to produce in 2023
Ford said in a press release Friday it will “boost production of its popular EVs” after a “strong start to 2023 sales.”
Here are the EV production targets Ford looks to meet by the end of this year.
F-150 Lightning: 150,000 annual run rate
Mustang Mach-E: 210,000 annual run rate
By Peter Johnson
Mar 3 2023
https://electrek.co/2023/03/03/heres-how-many-evs-ford-plans-to-produce-2023/

----------------------------



What!!! Boo Hoo somebody else might have the same truck as I do !!!!!!!

In U.S. full-size pickup trucks by Ford, GMC, Chevy, RAM, Toyota are best selling vehicles.

The best-selling light trucks in the United States in 2021
726,004 Ford F-series (150/250/350/450) - which except for color they mostly all look alike.
569,388 RAM - which except for color they mostly all look alike.
519,774 Chevrolet Silverado - which except for color they mostly all look alike.
252, 520 Toyota Tacoma - which except for color they mostly all look alike.
248,924 GMC Sierra - which except for color they mostly all look alike.
Published by Mathilde Carlier
Jan 18, 2022
https://www.statista.com/statistics...e-united-states-from-january-to-october-2011/

If they want a different color with Cybertruck they can get a color vinyl wrap.
My thoughts also. I'm in the Tacoma cult right now. I love Jeeps, Hummers and Honda African Twins, and a cult member of Netflix and Hulu, etc, etc. Stop it with 'cults', so 2019. I will love to race other Cybertrucks and compare and make conversation with other owners. I will be the 1000th cybertruck owner in Chandler AZ. I can't wait to see the first one which will make be anticipate the one I'm buying as the #80,000 in line. The whole point is to see these everywhere. This article makes a good argument but that's all it is.

I'm in the Tacoma cult right now. I love Jeeps, Hummers and Honda African Twins, and a cult member of Netflix and Hulu, etc, etc. Stop it with 'cults', so 2019.
Some group being a cult is often just in contrast to whatever group is making the statement. I mean look at the Romans. They considered Christianity to be a cult. How many christians are there now? Morgan Stanley may see CT enthusiasts as a small cult. But wait till the see the sales numbers over time. Perhaps they will call us a large cult. Or their analysts may even decide they want to join. Then the traditionalist ICE truck guys may become the small cult that doesn't want to move forward.

Now, there are some seriously dangerous groups that are seen as cults. So not trying to minimize that issue. But generally, when I see someone resort to calling a group a cult, it just means they don't have a rational reason to make the group look bad. So they result to name calling. In general it tends to show their weak argument more than anything about said group.
I'm in the Tacoma cult right now. The use of 'cult' for Tesla enthusiast has been used for years and old news. I also love Jeep, Hummer, Ferrari, etc. and a "cult" member for each. Can't wait to see a sea of Cybertrucks at Target, the trails, and the bars. When I see another CT at a stop light, probably will race it, and the RAM, and the F350, the Charger, the Lucid, the Tesla Truck, the Model S, and the Hayabusa.
 

Packnic

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I do not consider myself an Elon groupie as I think that he says way too many stupid things in public, does stupid things like buying Twitter, I do not like his politics, and I do not like how he plays favorites. But I do love his vision for sustainability and I love Tesla vehicles.
What is stupid about buying Twitter? If you love his vision, thats a giant part of it.
 


John K

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oh my - so how much is the expected total expense to own a CT? Install a home charging station + data package? Im 100% new to EV and Tesla. I am not happy about having to buy the $15k fully automated Add-on. So, if base price is $40k + 15K for fully auto --- what are we looking at all up and in?
I reserved a 2 motor with FSD

Price: 57k plus delivery plus tax plus $100 annual data package.

I already have two concurrent chargers. Each on dedicated lines.
 

Macgreiner

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Hogwash!!!

Tesla has over 1 million reservations for Cybertruck that should be less expensive and more capable than Ford Lightning EV.

By 2026, Tesla should be selling Cybertruck at a minimum 200K annual run rate.

----------------------------

How many Ford Lightnings are pre sold?
Ford kept getting steady demand for the F-150 Lightning and added about 80,000 reservations for a total of 120,000 pre-orders by the end of
Ford says it now has nearly 200,000 reservations for F-150 Lightning, or 3 years of backlog
2021Dec07
https://electrek.co/2021/12/07/ford-f-150-lightning-reservations-3-years-backlog/

----------------------------

Ford tripling F-150 Lightning, doubling Mach E production in 2023
Here’s how many EVs Ford plans to produce in 2023
Ford said in a press release Friday it will “boost production of its popular EVs” after a “strong start to 2023 sales.”
Here are the EV production targets Ford looks to meet by the end of this year.
F-150 Lightning: 150,000 annual run rate
Mustang Mach-E: 210,000 annual run rate
By Peter Johnson
Mar 3 2023
https://electrek.co/2023/03/03/heres-how-many-evs-ford-plans-to-produce-2023/

----------------------------





In U.S. full-size pickup trucks by Ford, GMC, Chevy, RAM, Toyota are best selling vehicles.
I think this will shift slowly to smaller vehicles as people realize how inefficient and costly it is to run a big vehicle with one person in it and the like. I know some say it will never change, but the days of the big behemoth are coming to to an end. Especially too if new tax systems charge by carbon output. Those of us who drive electric vehicle now will attest to how energy aware you become driving this batteries - especially on road trips.
 

Gurule92

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oh my - so how much is the expected total expense to own a CT? Install a home charging station + data package? Im 100% new to EV and Tesla. I am not happy about having to buy the $15k fully automated Add-on. So, if base price is $40k + 15K for fully auto --- what are we looking at all up and in?
Data package not reuired
 

Throwcomputer

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What is stupid about buying Twitter? If you love his vision, thats a giant part of it.
Twitter is not a part of his vision for sustainability. It may be part of his vision for something else, but it has no relation to sustainability. Some might say it's the antithesis of sustainability to his fortune and businesses.

 

 
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