Cybertruck launch delayed again - Per AutoForecast Solutions - until Oct 2023

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I did not start this comparison between Tesla and Microsoft. But if you play this game - play fair!
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Crissa

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Nope, it is not new. It always was like this. Our company has 290 PC’s. We do not buy a new Microsoft license when we replace computers. All Microsoft Windows licenses are originally windows 7. Now they are upgraded to win 11 and we haven’t had any issues.
Literally Windows has been around for thirty years. I know how each of the licenses worked - to use the upgrade license you needed to stick in the older copy, on back to the original.

Once loaded an upgrade XP using windows 3.1 floppies. What a chain of dumb licenses that was.

So yes, this is new. Not as new as 11, not as old as 8.

...and it sounds like you have a site license, which isn't transferrable, so much as you bought 'seats' and can get replacement keys. That's yet another pricing structure.

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firsttruck

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.....
my point is FSD could be transferable to another car if the owner of the FSD remains the same.
Sure it could. Never said Tesla couldn't. I wish Tesla would make it transferable.

My point with the Microsoft comparison is that non-transferability of software licenses in case of "totaled" device (home PCs, work PCs, even expensive servers ) is pretty common occurrence in software/computer industry and not a new phenomenon. Also Microsoft is not the only major software developer that non-transferability of software licenses in case of "totaled" device.
 


Tinker71

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One problem with software, especially in the case of FSD, is that it is very likely to get updates and upgrades as new capabilities and features come along. SO having a one off payment actually makes the least sense, it should be a deposit and a subscription, or just a subscription. That allows the customer to pay by use rather than upfront. ATM FSD upfront is technically increasing the amount the car costs, and as such increasing the loan repayments made.

For the customer it would be better to have a subscription that goes with you on your Tesla phone app, and you can take from car to car, even to a rental or friends. The reason I say this is that it is my understanding that the full FSD stack is being used in all Teslas that have hardware to support it anyway, but customer features have been limited to if the customer has paid for FSD or not. So "activating" FSD is simply a matter of enabling the "outputs" of the feature being automatic pedal and steering wheel control, and displaying some extra features on the display showing what it is doing.
I agree with the above. I am surprised by the lectures and warped conversation about PC/Server licensing this has generated. Of course there are ongoing cost for Tesla. My premise was the transferability in the even of a totaled Tesla. Insurance is always an option, but people flying to Tesla's defense for potentially collecting $24k in software royalties in 1 day if you totaled your Tesla on the first day. That was weird.

This is all about TVM cashflow. Tesla wanted the upfront cashflow so they made the lump sum FSD option. It was probably important to their growth. Maybe regrettably they extended this to CT reservation holders. For $100 I will definitely save $4000. Many will save $5000 for clicking that box.

Using 10 years, which is a reasonable lifespan for a car. I will be paying $67 per month or more with a loan or TVM principles. Full price payers will pay $100 per month. Comparing Tesla's subscription pricing is a little confusing. Why is enhanced $99 and basic $199? Enhanced sounds better. Are they additive? I scanned the FAQ. Without a Tesla/Tesla app I can't tell. Anybody?

I probably wouldn't pay $12k so I would do the monthly rate if I could turn it of and on for long trips. Call it turned on 4 months of the year @$199. I am back to $67 month on average but I only get utility for 4. Hmm. Then again having to think about it would suck.

Being able to transfer to a new Tesla is important to this decision. It needs to be crystal clear. Paying an upfront additional fee for that right is reasonable, paying an upfront deposit for this right plus a monthly maintenance subscription at a fixed (lower cost ) is probably the option that I would choose) if it were available.

Tesla Cybertruck Cybertruck launch delayed again - Per AutoForecast Solutions - until Oct 2023 1652705406293


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charliemagpie

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I believe FSD subsciption for personal use will become affordable. maybe $500 a year.
100% uptake = 5 billion. and growing.

By 2030 , for the sake of a close enough rounded number... Tesla could have sold 100 million cars .. 50 billion income per year... and growing.

FSD will make the roads safer.

-----------------------
The real super profit will come from commercial :
3 - Licensing FSD to other companies.
2 - Licence or profit share from private owners to join the Robotaxi network.

1 - Tesla's own Robotaxi network.$$$$
Minimum 70 million cars by 2035 (and growing) @ $300 each per week profit = 1 Trillion
 

Ogre

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Don’t shift the focus of this talk!
my point is FSD could be transferable to another car if the owner of the FSD remains the same.
It could.

But it doesn’t. This isn’t particularly unreasonable or uncommon with software. Particularly not software which is updated continuously the way FSD is. Most software which has a lot of updates charges a maintenance fee.

If FSD was transferable, it would almost certainly have a maintenance cost associated with ongoing efforts keeping it up to date. Being able to spend money once the way FSD works means you can roll that expense into the purchase price.

If you don’t like that option, then get the subscription. They give you a “take it with me” choice for FSD..
 
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intimidator

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You're right. They didn't leave themselves any wiggle room with that statement on FSD. I agree, FSD is kind of a mess at $12K and locked to a vehicle. Like you said, Tesla needs to come up with a better plan for contingencies like totaled vehicles. A year ago Todd the Cybertruck guy put up a plan where it would be, pay according to miles used. That would be fair. Tesla puts all the hardware into all of these vehicles. They need to get a high percentage of adoption, otherwise it's a waste.
I checked the box for FSD when I reserved my Cybertruck Nov 2019....but I really don't know if I will keep it....and I wouldn't pay $12,000 for it if it vanishes after sale or accident.
 
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intimidator

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I believe FSD subsciption for personal use will become affordable. maybe $500 a year.
100% uptake = 5 billion. and growing.

By 2030 , for the sake of a close enough rounded number... Tesla could have sold 100 million cars .. 50 billion income per year... and growing.

FSD will make the roads safer.

-----------------------
The real super profit will come from commercial :
3 - Licensing FSD to other companies.
2 - Licence or profit share from private owners to join the Robotaxi network.

1 - Tesla's own Robotaxi network.$$$$
Minimum 70 million cars by 2035 (and growing) @ $300 each per week profit = 1 Trillion
$500 a year?

That doesn't jive with Elon's track record of continually raising the price of FSD.
Why would he change it to an annual subscription of only $500 a year?
(That would be great if he did, but I am not expecting it)
 


charliemagpie

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$500 a year?

That doesn't jive with Elon's track record of continually raising the price of FSD.
Why would he change it to an annual subscription of only $500 a year?
(That would be great if he did, but I am not expecting it)
I know $500 sounds farcical, it was difficult to type lol.

In the end , it is a piece of software. No different to navigator software which comes free in your telephone these days.. or ABS , which is a standard feature in cars these days.

But my main reason for the $500, is to compete with other gated self drive vehicles, who will likely proliferate high density use areas. It may not just be Waymo, it will be dozens of gated Robo Taxi operators in every city.

Already there are many companies operating in gated areas in China and the US.

Less of a threat, but still competition, would be buying a hardware upgrade , or buying Gated FSD upgrade when you buy a new car.

Perhaps $500 for personal use is a reach early on, but not out of the question in say 5-10 years after launch.

Real money is in collecting taxi fees.. Imagine the huge incremental $ effect when Tesla reaches rolling out 10 million taxi's a year from 2030, Vs collecting subscription fees.
 

firsttruck

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Even if the competitors have working FSD software they can't compete.

The competitors FSD sensor suite (couple of RADARs, couple of LIDARs, more cameras, etc) means their sensor suite cost 2-3 times Tesla's.

Tesla will be manufacturing EVs at extreme scale with lower $/KwH.

The competitors will only be producing EVs at boutique level scale and also have higher $/KwH costs.

Production costs of competitors robotaxis will be 2-3 times that of Tesla's Robotaxi.

Tesla can charge Robotaxi customers at 50 cents per mile while Tesla makes great profits but competitors charge $1 per mile and just break even.
 

charliemagpie

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Yes, but things don't say the same. Lidar will drop in price, and computer hardware will catch up.

Besides, whilst there is market share to go around, I don't think Tesla will price at the competitor's break even price. Tesla will want to find the best balance between 100% car usage and maximum profit.

After that, it will be a price/service war. And as you say, tesla should win. This will be many years down the track. imo
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