Old Spice

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Rumor: Tesla Is Gearing Up for Earlier than Expected Cybertruck Production

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tes...r-earlier-than-expected-cybertruck-production

March 29, 2021

In an effort to bring Cybertruck to market as soon as possible, Tesla is preparing the pilot production line and planning details for its production at the Fremont factory. Once all the equipment is installed at Giga Texas, a trained, ready-for-work team will immediately begin production from June 2021.

It seems Tesla is in a hurry to please its customers with the fastest possible market launch of the cult Cybertruck. Tesla's electric pickup truck has garnered a lot of attention, and its pre-orders have long since surpassed 700,000 (according to unofficial figures). This would surely stimulate the company to start producing it as soon as Giga Texas is built.

According to information leaked from Tesla, the company is currently focused on building the pilot production line at the Fremont factory. In addition, the company is planning all the details of how the line will operate, which will save several months of time before production starts at Giga Texas. The point is that the team must learn how to properly operate the equipment and acquire the necessary knowledge about the production process. Typically, such training can take from several weeks to months, however Tesla will do it even before the production equipment is installed at Giga Texas.

In addition, the team currently undergoing training was asked to arrive in Texas in June to begin work. This means that at least a trial production of Cybertruck can begin as early as June 2021, which means that the first deliveries could occur in Q3 of this year. Even if mass production only begins in Q4, it still means that the company will manage to deliver several batches of Cybertruck, which could have a significant impact on the financial results for 2021.

This information has been confirmed by several members from the Tesla Cybertruck production team.
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Alan

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Elon Musk may still have accuracy issues when estimating the rollout dates of products like the Full Self-Driving Beta, but there is no denying that the Tesla CEO is starting to learn the art of sandbagging, at least to some degree. This is something that Elon Musk appears to be doing with the Tesla Cybertruck’s upcoming production, which is expected to begin its trial phases either late 2021 or early next year. Musk has been pretty conservative about the all-electric pickup trucks’ production in Gigafactory Texas, but if a recent report from the EV community is any indication, Tesla may have an ace up its sleeve for its Cybertruck rollout.

The Tesla Cybertruck has always been fated to be built in Gigafactory Texas, so much so that the facility was known in the electric vehicle community in the past as the “Cybertruck Gigafactory.” Yet over the months and as production equipment was spotted on the massive Texas-based complex, it became evident that it would not be the Cybertruck that would be produced first in Giga Texas. It would be the Model Y. This was hinted at by the Model Y Giga Press machines that have been spotted in the area.

tesla-gigafactory-texas-model-y-giga-press--scaled.jpg
Giga Texas’ Giga Press machine. (Credit: Jeff Roberts)
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The idea of Giga Texas starting its operations with the Model Y makes sense considering the demand for the all-electric crossover and the fact that the Fremont Factory is stretched thin as it is. However, it would not be an exaggeration to note that a good number of Tesla enthusiasts were a bit disappointed that the Texas-based facility would not be launching its operations with the production of the Cybertruck, a vehicle that seemed to be explicitly designed for Giga Texas production.
Fortunately, it appears that Tesla may have a plan to ensure that Cybertruck production in Gigafactory Texas does not get too delayed. Just recently, a number of EV community members such as FSD Beta user @WholeMarsBlog were informed that Tesla is already making the necessary moves to develop the Cybertruck’s prototype production lines. This reportedly involves Tesla building a pilot line for the all-electric pickup truck in the Fremont Factory. With such a prototype line in place at Fremont, Tesla could hit the ground running in Giga Texas.
These reports were immediately echoed by other EV community members, some of whom cited information reportedly related by Tesla employees from the Fremont Factory. Some have even remarked that Tesla employees moving to Texas due to the Cybertruck factory would be relocating to the Lone Star State around the end of May. Granted, these updates should be taken with a grain of salt, but they still highlight the fact that Tesla may actually have a pretty solid plan to ensure that the Cybertruck enters mass production as quickly and as smoothly as possible.
tesla-cybertruck-1.jpg
The Tesla Cybertruck’s tough exoskeleton could be a perfect fit for military use. (Credit: Adam Savage’s Tested/YouTube)
While unorthodox, Tesla’s recently reported strategy for the Cybertruck’s rollout actually makes quite a lot of sense. Having a line in Fremont for prototype validation vehicles would all but ensure that the Cybertruck’s lines in Gigafactory Texas would not require any substantial changes or adjustments when they are activated for mass production. But this is not all. The Fremont Factory is also a stone’s throw away from Tesla’s Roadrunner site, where the company is currently developing and ramping the production of its custom dry-electrode, tabless 4680 cells—the batteries that would most likely be used on the Cybertruck.
What’s particularly interesting about these recent updates is the fact that Elon Musk appears to be sandbagging the expectations surrounding the Cybertruck or Tesla’s 4680 battery cells. Unlike his typical tweets about the development of FSD features like Summon, Musk’s updates about the Cybertruck over the past months have been scarce and vague at the most. His estimated timeframes for the truck have been conservative as well. That being said, if Tesla is indeed preparing to start a pilot line in Fremont for the Cybertruck, then the company could very well be holding an ace up its sleeve—one that could shake the electric pickup market to its core when it is played.
 

Bill906

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Good question...
One theory I have is maybe they get the gigapress (gigapresses?) up and running in Texas first. Pump out a few castings and ship them to the pilot factory in Freemont. While this is happening they get the rest of the CT lineup up and running in Texas. Just a thought.
 

Blue Steel

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I'm going to offer some speculation...

They are surely going to begin production of Cybertrucks in California. They probably have already started. They need to get some trucks out on the road (and off road) for testing. Texas isn't ready, so that leaves California. And it only makes sense to get your top level production people (managers, supervisors, etc) in on production now so that the process goes smoother when volume production begins.

However, I don't for one minute believe they are going to start producing orders for delivery to customers in June.
 

Diehard

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They probably have already started. They need to get some trucks out on the road (and off road) for testing.
They may make something like the original prototype with some of the changes like removed door handle for cameras but I think they need Idra to produce and deliver the casting machine before they can put a unit together for real testing (Load capacity, towing, crash test, ...). Does anyone know how long it took to deliver Y casting machine after order was placed?

Optimism can be a good thing sometimes, but realistic expectations leads to less disappointments. Remember Smi was supposed to get to customer's hands in 2019. The reason Elon said End of the year if we are lucky is that when you shoot for difficult goals, unexpected is always expected. It makes sense for him to plan for June so he can deliver in October.

I have always been a buzz kill, I can't help it ;)
 
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beeeasybro

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Absence makes the heart grow fonder ❤
 

Yakuza

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I still don’t see any kind of volume production happening until next year. Battery constraints being a big factor. It’s great they’re working on a pilot line. By the time giga Texas is built, they will have a well trained crew, a smoother production process, etc.

This is Tesla learning from production hell and trying not to replicate it.
 

nitrohuck

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My guess is the timeline is going to stay the same at best, and this is simply going to help for production ramp as things heat up in late (late) 2021 and then into 2022.

I'm happy they are trying to get employees familiarized with the process in an effort to hit the ground running, I just think it's truly unrealistic to think that this is going to push timelines up.
 

Crissa

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It only makes sense to have pilot lines. I think one of the reasons they're making the Austin facility so big is so they have that flexibility in the future.

But it seems like they do intend to use the Fremont facility to build these test lines ahead. Lots of their high end devs won't want to leave the coast. And they already have all the lines there... letting them experiment with different layouts while the Austin factory can pump out units.

Taking down a line like they did for the S is a big disruption. Having a facility specifically designed to be disrupted while the majority of your production is elsewhere makes sense.

-Crissa
 

Luke42

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The rest of the automotive industry uses several different stages of building cars for production:
https://3dimensional.com/automotive-prototype-uses-concept-creation/
(This company appears to be a typical automotive supplier, but they have a nice writeup.)

Tesla has historically skipped as many of these steps as possible.

But, these other car companies aren't dumb. They're risk-averse, but they aren't dumb. They have a century of experience in bringing new models to market.

I wouldn't be surprised if the pilot line is being used to debug the process they'll use at the Texas plant. They may also be used for "beta" models.

As Tesla grows in size and scope, they'll likely adopt processes from the rest of the industry when they start to solve problems Tesla has.
 
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