Cybertruck Range Prediction + Cell Calculation + More [Sources]

[samroy92]

TLDR Edit 2 (7/20/23):
~1450 Cells
~400 Wh/mi efficiency
~100-110 Wh per Cell
Not including range buffer (3-5 kWh)

1450 Cells * 110 Wh = 159,500 Wh, in other words ~159kWh. If we assume 400 Wh/mi of driving efficiency this would give us an estimated EPA range of 397miles.

If Cell capacity is only 100 Wh for Gen1 CT the same calculations would yield: 362 miles of range. Not including range buffers.

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Hi everyone, I have been wanting to put these predictions together for a while and now we finally have some concrete data. We do still have to make some assumptions on the Cybertruck itself as well as what 4680 yields will be in a year so this will be a range. TLDR at bottom.

Lets start with what we know.

The standard range model Y has 34/35 cells in a row (literally counting them from the Munro video above), 6 cells in a group, 4 groups in a structural pack.

828 cells at around 95 Wh per cell = ~78kwh for the texas made model Y. From insideEVs: "4, 23S9P modules making a 92S9P pack".

3.8V per cell (per UCSD teardown). 92 in series = 350V, 9 of those in parallel for the 78kwh.

46mm diameter cell is approx == 64 inches long on a chain of 35 cells. Or around 5 1/3 feet.

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STANDARD RANGE Model Y battery pack

4 groups
3 bandoliers per group
34/35 arrangement cells per band

23S9P * 4

23S9P == 34*3 + 35*3 = 102 + 105 = 207 == 20.7kwh per group

828 total cells

35 x 4680 cells in the longest string. 46mm diameter ~ 1.811 inches.

model Y wheelbase == 113"
cell string length = 63.5"
string length ratio to wheelbase == 56%

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Warning: Big assumptions ahead

Assumptions

1. Current 4680 cell yields ~100Wh at 3.8V
2. Cybertruck will have a single layer pack (not double stacked)
3. Cybertruck is wider than Model Y
4. Cybertruck has a wheel base of 145-149"
5. Cybertruck efficiency is 400wh/mi

The case of 350-500V Cybertruck

LONG RANGE CYBERTRUCK ~437V

5 cell groups
3 bandoliers per group (pair of cell strings)

23S15P = 345cells per group, 115 cells per band

115S15P total pack == 1725 cells

57/58 per band

345 x 5 = 1725cells == ~172kwh per pack = 430mi/range

CT estimated wheelbase = 149"
Ford lightning wheelbase = 145"
cell string length = 105"
string length ratio to wheelbase = 70.4%

This pack length seems too long to fit the dimensions of the Cybertruck, therefore seems unlikely we could see a pack with more than 1600 cells.

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LONG RANGE CYBERTRUCK ~376V (More realistic)

3 groups
5 bands per group

33S15P = 495 cells per group * 3 = 1485 cells == 375V pack == 149kwh == 375mi/range

49/50 bandollier == 99 per band

cell string length = 90.5"
string length ratio to wheelbase = ~60%

This pack length seems way more realistic in the 400V range

15 pairs or bandolliers vs 12 on the model Y standard range
49/50 length bands instead of 35/34 on the model Y standard range

The case of 800-900V Cybertruck

LONG RANGE CYBERTRUCK ~722V

5 groups
3 bands per group
47,48 == 95 cells per band

38S8P groups x 5

190S8P = 1520 cells = 152 kwh == 722V == 375mi/range

48 cells * 1.811" = 87" string length == 58% ratio


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LONG RANGE CYBERTRUCK ~850V

5 groups
3 bands per group
53,52 length = 105 cells per band

45S7P * 5 = 225S7P == 1575 cells == 158kwh == 855V == 395mi/range

53 cells * 1.811" = 96" == 64% ratio (starting to get unrealistic again)

When visualizing these packs think of this:

With an extra group. And longer.


Cell Yields are improving.

Right now the most accurate capacity estimate of the 4680 yields and cell material. If we conservatively feel that when Cybertruck production starts we are achieving 110-120wh per cell. Our realistic range estimate becomes:

1485 Cells @100wh/cell:

~149kwh * 2.5mi/kwh = 375mi/range

1485 Cells @120wh/cell:

~177kwh * 2.5mi/kwh = 442mi/range

1520 Cells @120wh/cell with the 190S8P 722V pack (my prediction):

~181kwh * 2.5mi/kwh = ~450mi/range


TLDR; I think we will realistically see 375-450 miles of range 325-400 miles of range on the Cybertruck depending on 4680 yields in mid-2023. I think pack size will be between 1450-1520 cells, my prediction is a 190S8P (722V) configuration.

TLDR Edit 1: I am revising my range estimates down due to empirical evidence of UCSD teardown of 4680 cell. I think it is likely that yields on Cybertruck 4680 will be in the 90-100Wh per cell range. This puts pack capacity at 130.5kWh - 152kWh or 326mi-380mi

TLDR Edit 2 (7/20/23):
It seems that 100-110Wh per gen2 cell is fairly realistic considering the recent comments on earnings call saying that their latest 4680 cells are 10% increase in energy density.

1450 Cells * 110 Wh = 159,500 Wh, in other words ~159kWh. If we assume 400 Wh/mi of driving efficiency this would give us an estimated EPA range of 397miles.

If Cell capacity is only 100 Wh for Gen1 CT the same calculations would yield: 362 miles of range. Not including range buffers.

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[samroy92]

Sources:
https://insideevs.com/news/598656/tesla-4680-battery-cell-specs/
https://www.teslaoracle.com/2022/07...ros-teardown-analysis-reveals-deeps-insights/
https://insideevs.com/news/584886/tesla-cyber-rodeo-4680-pack-cutaway-analyzed/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/investor-engineering-discussions.232418/page-16
https://www.torquenews.com/14093/tesla-18650-2170-and-4680-battery-cell-comparison-basics
https://power-calculation.com/battery-storage-calculator.php

 

[ldjessee]

Interesting thought process.
Did you allow for the ribbon cooling in spacing?
You calculated length, but what about width?

Given the vualt cover, underbed storage, I would only think the area available to house the battery pack is under the passenger floor. Also look at all the electronics in the battery pack and allow space for them.

I think that only the shortest range model will have a single stack and the other variants will have double stacked battery cells. Total speculation, so no 'proof' nor a source.

 

[samroy92]

Interesting thought process.
Did you allow for the ribbon cooling in spacing?
You calculated length, but what about width?

Given the vualt cover, underbed storage, I would only think the area available to house the battery pack is under the passenger floor. Also look at all the electronics in the battery pack and allow space for them.

I think that only the shortest range model will have a single stack and the other variants will have double stacked battery cells. Total speculation, so no 'proof' nor a source.

Interesting, if they only use space in the passenger floor they would probably have to double stack. Given that in all other Tesla models the battery pack is between the front and rear casting I assumed using wheelbase was a decent barometer. Glad the post sparked some conversation.

 

[samroy92]

You calculated length, but what about width?

We don't really have enough information to calculate the width, I made a rough estimation. Take a look at the picture below of a 4680 structural model y. They put a spacer in the side of the pack here, it just happens to be roughly exactly the width of half a group of cells. There's two of those spacers. This leads me to speculate the model y can support 5 groups of cells for a long range model (I went into that above).

Given that the Cybertruck is wider than the model Y, 5 groups of cells was a safe assumption (so I think).

 

[ldjessee]

We don't really have enough information to calculate the width, I made a rough estimation. Take a look at the picture below of a 4680 structural model y. They put a spacer in the side of the pack here, it just happens to be roughly exactly the width of half a group of cells. There's two of those spacers. This leads me to speculate the model y can support 5 groups of cells for a long range model (I went into that above).

Given that the Cybertruck is wider than the model Y, 5 groups of cells was a safe assumption (so I think).

That pack does not have the ribbon cooling and seems more like a mockup, not how the real packs are being made, based on the Munro videos.

Yes, we only know the width of the cybertruck as it was given during the first prototype phase, not the more recent prototypes and what the 'locked' design is.

Hopefully they will show off and release specifications at the end of year investor letter/call.

 

[samroy92]

That pack does not have the ribbon cooling and seems more like a mockup, not how the real packs are being made, based on the Munro videos.

It does that's why I waited until the munro video came out to confirm this. I counted the cells in the bandolier its this same design. We'll see in the next month but I think there's much more room wide to add another cell group - even in the MY and definitely in the CT.

 

[rr6013]

Cooling will be more robust vis-á-vis Tesla MY car batterypack design.
First principles: Cybertruck at launch was shown attached to a two axel trailer. Assuming car spec battery pack translates 100% strikes me an error of the first order. CT 82” O–O width affords engineers an opportunity to pad the Cybertruck margin of cooling safety for pulling trailers.

First Principles: Why would Tesla not use the full length between castings? Its free, as in free space. Tesla values energy over a jumping jack trix. Sure, the prototype crammed a proto-rollup bedcover smack dab in the middle. Its prototype. I’m guessing a jumping jack bedcover would cost 15/16ths bandolier. Engineers can route the rollup device design from the rear.v.front of bed with re-engineered power mechanisms.

Perhaps ~15/16ths spoils orthogonal scaling of the batterypack voltage. But now we’re in plan view without a schematic from which to infer true dimensions. SO guesstimates all around.

 

[samroy92]

Cooling will be more robust vis-á-vis Tesla MY car batterypack design.
First principles: Cybertruck at launch was shown attached to a two axel trailer. Assuming car spec battery pack translates 100% strikes me an error of the first order. CT 82” O–O width affords engineers an opportunity to pad the Cybertruck margin of cooling safety for pulling trailers.

First Principles: Why would Tesla not use the full length between castings? Its free, as in free space. Tesla values energy over a jumping jack trix. Sure, the prototype crammed a proto-rollup bedcover smack dab in the middle. Its prototype. I’m guessing a jumping jack bedcover would cost 15/16ths bandolier. Engineers can route the rollup device design from the rear.v.front of bed with re-engineered power mechanisms.

Perhaps ~15/16ths spoils orthogonal scaling of the batterypack voltage. But now we’re in plan view without a schematic from which to infer true dimensions. SO guesstimates all around.

Yeah I think its quite possible the width of the CT supports 16, maybe even 18 bandoliers. Too hard to say though, I wanted to stay conservative. I don't think it would spoil the voltage, can always change the series/parallel arrangement to get it within spec. My 722V hypothetical could easily add another cell group (3 bandoliers) for a total pack voltage of 866V still under 900.

 

[ldjessee]

Cooling will be more robust vis-á-vis Tesla MY car batterypack design.
First principles: Cybertruck at launch was shown attached to a two axel trailer. Assuming car spec battery pack translates 100% strikes me an error of the first order. CT 82” O–O width affords engineers an opportunity to pad the Cybertruck margin of cooling safety for pulling trailers.

First Principles: Why would Tesla not use the full length between castings? Its free, as in free space. Tesla values energy over a jumping jack trix. Sure, the prototype crammed a proto-rollup bedcover smack dab in the middle. Its prototype. I’m guessing a jumping jack bedcover would cost 15/16ths bandolier. Engineers can route the rollup device design from the rear.v.front of bed with re-engineered power mechanisms.

Perhaps ~15/16ths spoils orthogonal scaling of the batterypack voltage. But now we’re in plan view without a schematic from which to infer true dimensions. SO guesstimates all around.

The reason I speculated that they could not use the wheel to wheel space for battery pack is that the vault cover comes underneath the bed to be stored and the underbed storage compartment.

I just think that just the space under the passenger cabin would be usable for the battery pack.
Here is a super simply, not very technical sketch on a picture of a Cybertruck to illustrate what I was thinking.

 

[samroy92]

Here is a super simply, not very technical sketch on a picture of a Cybertruck to illustrate what I was thinking.

Thanks for drawing it out, that would definitely require a double stacked pack. In my opinion Tesla will do this:

The structural component of the pack, their big breakthrough, will be casting to casting. (Again in my humble opinion) The rigidity of the Cybertruck will be next level for a truck.

In summary:

 

[charliemagpie]

1 inch thick, 6.5 feet long.

What would be the diameter rolled up ? 16"-18" (half a wheel height ?)

Was it the patent which showed it as rolled ?

 

[Crissa]

Big flat voids would be structurally unsound. It's bad enough it's going up through the middle of the truck.

But, we don't know how big the roll is or how far down it extends.

-Crissa

 

[ED_SFO]

Big flat voids would be structurally unsound. It's bad enough it's going up through the middle of the truck.

But, we don't know how big the roll is or how far down it extends.

-Crissa

It also doesn't have to roll...could just open and close like a garage door..travel path like a C. I'm thinking if u roll the cover over itself more chances of things getting caught inside the roll creating a jam...vs a C much smoother and less things over lapping. But who knows

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