Warbird

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Sorry, please explain like I'm five. If my reservation number is RN113744100, which calculates to a gross number of 1,000,000, what is my effective CT reservation number?
Was your RN from 3rd quarter 2020?
So at the start Q3 2020 there were roughly 1.1M Cybertrucks already ordered.

Quarter: 2020 Q3
139,300 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 124,100 S/X: 15,200) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113597364 thru ~114005887 =
~ 408,523 Possible reservations.
2,647 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 150 Non US reservations.
- 6,965 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 399,588 Cyber truck orders for quarter.
+ 833,749 Previous CT orders.
- 90,650 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 1,142,687 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.
So you are saying the my gross number of 1,000,000, calculated by subtracting 112744100 from the numerical portion of my fictitious reservation number RN113744100, is really north of 1,100,000? You realize that number is very different than the "Corrected Position" estimate in the spreadsheet of 645,000?

Thanks to both authors for their two attempts presented in this forum to estimate "your place in line". However it appears the simple gross estimate achieved by subtracting 112744100 from the numerical portion of your reservation number is fairly accurate, especially for early reservation holders who reserved during the first year, thru 2020.

Bottom line is we will all be driving our CyberTrucks in a few short years. And five years from now we will all be one of the first to do so!

BTW: Thanks for the GitHub link. But my programming days are over, I am retired!
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KHappe

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So you are saying the my gross number of 1,000,000, calculated by subtracting 112744100 from the numerical portion of my fictitious reservation number RN113744100, is really north of 1,100,000? You realize that number is very different than the "Corrected Position" estimate in the spreadsheet of 645,000?

Thanks to both authors for their two attempts presented in this forum to estimate "your place in line". However it appears the simple gross estimate achieved by subtracting 112744100 from the numerical portion of your reservation number is fairly accurate, especially for early reservation holders who reserved during the first year, thru 2020.

Bottom line is we will all be driving our CyberTrucks in a few short years. And five years from now we will all be one of the first to do so!

BTW: Thanks for the GitHub link. But my programming days are over, I am retired!
The only thing I do different is subtrack out the Tesla's deliveries for previous quarters. So the difference between the two estimates for the first few quarters are close. But evey quarter, Tesla's deliveries are ramping up. So a year or two after the CT announcment the deliveries drastically change the estimated place in line if you dont account for them.
 

Warbird

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The only thing I do different is subtract out the Tesla's deliveries for previous quarters. So the difference between the two estimates for the first few quarters are close. But every quarter, Tesla's deliveries are ramping up. So a year or two after the CT announcement the deliveries drastically change the estimated place in line if you don't account for them.
Its fun to speculate our "place in line" and when we might be able to get our CyberTrucks.

But assumming I have collected and calculated correctly, there is half an order of magnitude difference between your estimate and the spreadsheet for my fictitious reservation number of RN113744100 that would have occurred 2020Q3.

Comparing the three "place in line" methods presented in this thread, using a fictitious reservation number of RN113744100:
- 1,000,000 is the gross "place in line", by subtracting 112744100 from 113744100
- 645,000 is the "Corrected Position" from the spreadsheet.
- 1,100,000 is your number.
 

KHappe

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Its fun to speculate our "place in line" and when we might be able to get our CyberTrucks.

But assumming I have collected and calculated correctly, there is half an order of magnitude difference between your estimate and the spreadsheet for my fictitious reservation number of RN113744100 that would have occurred 2020Q3.

Comparing the three "place in line" methods presented in this thread, using a fictitious reservation number of RN113744100:
- 1,000,000 is the gross "place in line", by subtracting 112744100 from 113744100
- 645,000 is the "Corrected Position" from the spreadsheet.
- 1,100,000 is your number.
Thanks I will look at it.
 

TyPope

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My calculations attempt to show the place in line for a CT order, compared to other CT orders.
As you said, subtracting 112744100 from your order number gives your place in line compared to all car orders and maybe solar.
I just subtact out Tesla's published delveries for the various quarters to give a better place in line for a CT order.
In the past Tesla has delivered locally first and then began delivering to other locations.
Unsure if the will stay true for Texas. Texas has horrible laws in regards to auto manufactures being able to deliver locally. Orders outside of North America will definitly get moved to back in list.
My Model Y was one of the first 14,000 made... Got it in Nebraska. They were nowhere close to filling the California orders yet.
 


KHappe

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Thanks I will look at it.
I worked on the calculations some more today.
I think I was trying to do to much.

The data from the spreadsheet is not very reliable. Worked on my normalize routine to try and make RN and Dates line up better.

I simplied the totaling logic.
I'm more happy with the results.

Quarter: 2020 Q3
139,300 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 124,100 S/X: 15,200) Data provided by Tesla.

Tracker reservation numbers: ~113616875 thru ~114046673 =
~ 429,798 Possible reservations.
2,680 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)

872,775 Place in line. RN:113616875 - 112744100
- 241,819 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 630,956 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.





Analyze Results Readme
 


Crissa

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I mean, it's conceivable something might go wrong - but they've had extra time to kick out the bugs pre-production so they should be in a better place than the 3 or Y were, although the production side is going to be messier.

-Crissa
 

Fgiurleo

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How to tell your place in line for the Cybertruck based on your reservation #:

Your order numbers is just a sequential number, starting at about 112744100 (the number that reservations began). So subtract that from your number for your (approximate) place in line. Keeping in mind the rollout will be regional, so your position in line is only good for your rollout region.

Here is the reservation spreadsheet being updated by showing inputted reservation orders and the approximate # of reservations so far:
 

bdmridgeback

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That makes me 123,*** and I ordered Friday the day after the reveal at 2:30pm...

I think the numbers might have a regional place holder.. otherwise the reported numbers sre way off. That means almost half a million have been ordered

I ordered the morning after the reveal at about 8am and I was 76,000ish in line
 

CYBR117

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#6296 for me. About #5500 adjusted according to the spreadsheet. Fingers crossed I can get some 3D scans of the bumpers and such before the end of the year.
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