FutureBoy

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Question:
Hi, with the hardware 3 there has been lots of speculation that with larger nets its hitting the limits of what it can provide. How much headroom has the extended compute modes provided and at what point would hardware 4 be required if at all?

Answer (Elon):
Well, I'm confident that hardware 3, or the full self-driving computer 1, will be able to achieve full self-driving at a safety level much greater than a human. Probably, I don't know, at least 2 or 300 percent better than a human. Then obviously there will be a future hardware 4, or full self-driving computer 2, which we'll probably introduce with the Cybertruck. So maybe about in a year or so. That will be about 4 times more capable, roughly. But it's really just going to be like can we take it, for argument's sake, from 300 percent safer than a person to 1000 percent safer. Just like there are people on the road who, with varying driving abilities, but we still let people drive. You don't have to be the world's best driver to be on the road. As we see.
So what I got out of that:
1. Cybertruck is probably coming out 1 year from now or maybe a bit later.
2. Cybertruck will be getting the first upgraded AI hardware for FSD.
3. Upgraded AI hardware will be about 4 times more capable than the current AI hardware.
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TheLastStarfighter

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So what I got out of that:
1. Cybertruck is probably coming out 1 year from now or maybe a bit later.
2. Cybertruck will be getting the first upgraded AI hardware for FSD.
3. Upgraded AI hardware will be about 4 times more capable than the current AI hardware.
Seems reasonable.
 
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FutureBoy

FutureBoy

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Question:
Hi, my question is about the camera sensor. In the beginning of the talk you had mentioned about building a center deck hanimal. And if you think about it, a camera is a very poor approximation of a human eye. And a human eye does a lot more than take a sequence of frames. Have you looked into, these days there are event cameras. Are you looking into them, or are you looking into a more flexible camera design or building your own camera for example.

Answer (Elon):
Well, with hardware 4, we will have a next-generation camera. But I have to say, the current camera is, we have not reached the limit of the current cameras. And I'm confident we can achieve full self-driving with much higher safety than humans with the current cameras and current compute hardware. But it would be good to be 1000 percent better, rather than 300 percent better. We'll see continued evolution on all levels in pursuit of that goal. And I think in the future, people will look back and say, "Wow, I can't believe we had to drive these cars ourselves." Self-driving cars will just be a normal, like self-driving elevators. Elevators used to have elevator operators. There's someone there with a big relay switch operating the elevator. And every now and then, they would get tired or make a mistake and shear somebody in half. So now we made elevators automatic. You just go and you press the button. You can be in a 100 story sky scraper and don't really worry about it. Just go in and press a button and the elevator takes you where you want to go. But it used to be that all elevators were operated manually. It will be the same thing for cars. All cars will be automatic. And electric obviously. There will still be some gasoline cars and some manual cars. Just like there are still some horses.
What I got out of that:
1. With the AI compute hardware upgrade coming to the Cybertruck, there will also be upgraded cameras.
2. Cybertruck will, aspirationally at least, have (or progress to over time) full self-drive that is 1000 percent better than human drivers.
 

fritter63

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My takeaways:

  1. Now we know where all the money has been spent!
  2. Take that Big Blue ("Watson", IBM's supercomputer architecture)
  3. Analysts will now have another revenue facet to ignore when valuating TSLA
  4. They showed it changing lanes in the middle of an intersection.... :cautious:
  5. Elon may have created a fully simulated world (The Forge from Westworld?) for us to live in before we get the CT
  6. No, India, you cannot have FSD!!!!! 😱
PS. They really presented a lot of tech details. Felt like I was at a technical conference session.
 
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So what I got out of that:
1. Cybertruck is probably coming out 1 year from now or maybe a bit later.
2. Cybertruck will be getting the first upgraded AI hardware for FSD.
3. Upgraded AI hardware will be about 4 times more capable than the current AI hardware.
I'm going to buy a lightning if it gets delayed another year
 

Diehard

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So what I got out of that:
1. Cybertruck is probably coming out 1 year from now or maybe a bit later.
2. Cybertruck will be getting the first upgraded AI hardware for FSD.
3. Upgraded AI hardware will be about 4 times more capable than the current AI hardware.
“we'll probably introduce with the Cybertruck. So maybe about in a year or so”

You may need to normalize that “a year or so” based on what we know of “a month or so”
 

Ogre

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So what I got out of that:
1. Cybertruck is probably coming out 1 year from now or maybe a bit later.
2. Cybertruck will be getting the first upgraded AI hardware for FSD.
3. Upgraded AI hardware will be about 4 times more capable than the current AI hardware.
Claims about how awesome next years FSD will be I have to take with a grain of salt. I've been hearing similar claims for the past 5+ years. The beta seems promising, but this beta may well be a 5 year project itself.

If Cybertruck ships with new awesometastic FSD and it's as good as Musk says, perhaps I will actually pony up the $10k and it'll all be. Otherwise it's just a delay.
 

Diehard

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Claims about how awesome next years FSD will be I have to take with a grain of salt. I've been hearing similar claims for the past 5+ years. The beta seems promising, but this beta may well be a 5 year project itself.

If Cybertruck ships with new awesometastic FSD and it's as good as Musk says, perhaps I will actually pony up the $10k and it'll all be. Otherwise it's just a delay.
I hope CT schedule is completely independent of FSD. I personally have zero interest in it at this point. May be when I lose my eyesight or driver license but not before that and not before a large number of drivers have used it for couple of years. I simply am not on the road long enough to justify it.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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You guys missed the part where someone asked if they will need better cameras and Elon said they would deploy new cameras with HW 4.0.
 

HaulingAss

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It was exciting to hear, but not the timeline of course.
As someone who is hoping for a sooner delivery of a Cybertruck to my driveway, that comment made my heat skip a beat. But based on the way he said it so nonchalantly, I really don't think Elon was slipping in there an announcement that the Cybertruck is further delayed.

On the other hand, I'm having trouble making sense of it any other way. One explanation is that there are two main components to hardware 4, the Ver. 4 FSD computer and Ver 4 cameras (he did say FSD 4 included new cameras). It could be Cybertruck will start production with the new cameras but as he was saying that he realized his comment would set expectations for FSD 4 chips early next year so he clarified it by adding on "later next year". Then, early production Cybertrucks would get a FSD computer upgrade (but only for vehicles ordered with FSD) while all Cybertrucks will have ver. 4 camera hardware.
 
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ElectricCat

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Well, with all your (and mine) desires to have CT ASAP, I think it would be wise to wait a little. Maybe after first few thousand at least. As we all know the first cars often have unforeseeable issues. My heart and my mind always fight over that 😱
 
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