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  • September 2022: 9k ton Gigapress arrives at Giga Texas during the second half of the month. Other production equipment will be spotted arriving preceding and proceeding this.

  • Q3 2022 earnings call: Status of production in slide deck changes from "In Development" to "Under Construction." Additionally, announcement of Cybertruck Event 2.0 is announced (if not spoiled prematurely by Musk on Twitter)

  • November 2022: Almost exactly 3 years after initial Cybertruck was unveiled, the Cybertruck Event 2.0 happens that reveals updated specs and pricing. Additionally, the order confirmation/setup page goes live.

  • December 2022: Initial underbody castings for Cybertruck spotted. Likely towards the end of the month.

  • March 2023: More and more prototype sightings in and around Giga Texas using the underbody castings, armored glass, and exoskeletons made using production line equipment.

  • April 2023: EPA filings (official range numbers)

  • July 2023: Initial production begins. Limited to employee-only deliveries.

  • September 2023: Initial non-employee deliveries.

  • January 2024: First Canadian deliveries.

 

Dusty

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I'm questioning a November re-unveiling. My guess is that it'll be a bandaid ripping. I don't see them unveiling and announcing real pricing then letting everyone gripe for 6-9 months until production. They'll tease the re-unveiling at the Q4 shareholders meeting, then sell to employees. Right after the employee shakedowns drop the announcement. The time between the re-unveiling with pricing to ordering/production will be super short, people who reserved a trimotor will get contacted right after the re-unveiling day. There will be griping, but it'll be quickly drowned out by videos of people ordering and eventually getting deliveries... soon followed by reviews.

I can imagine Musk saying, "If you are an early tri-motor reservation holder we'll be contacting you to finalize—with the option to upgrade to the Quad-motor which will be built first..."

They'll have the choice to opt for a lower spec non-CT4 or drop a standard deposit on the CT4 which will be made first, and be priced near the MSP. They may honor the FSD 2019 unveil price. Then after they get through the high end orders they'll eventually ramp production and move down spec; cranking out CTs like bags of potatoes at Five Guys.

But, who knows. I'm just guessing, which has officially gotten kinda old to me. It's all watch and wait at this point.
 

Ogre

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  • September 2022: 9k ton Gigapress arrives at Giga Texas during the second half of the month. Other production equipment will be spotted arriving preceding and proceeding this.

  • Q3 2022 earnings call: Status of production in slide deck changes from "In Development" to "Under Construction." Additionally, announcement of Cybertruck Event 2.0 is announced (if not spoiled prematurely by Musk on Twitter)

  • November 2022: Almost exactly 3 years after initial Cybertruck was unveiled, the Cybertruck Event 2.0 happens that reveals updated specs and pricing. Additionally, the order confirmation/setup page goes live.

  • December 2022: Initial underbody castings for Cybertruck spotted. Likely towards the end of the month.

  • March 2023: More and more prototype sightings in and around Giga Texas using the underbody castings, armored glass, and exoskeletons made using production line equipment.

  • April 2023: EPA filings (official range numbers)

  • July 2023: Initial production begins. Limited to employee-only deliveries.

  • September 2023: Initial non-employee deliveries.

  • January 2024: First Canadian deliveries.
I don’t think the launch party/ happens until Tesla has rolled at least a few trucks off the line. We’ll likely see those early beta trucks before the next Cybertruck event happens. Shortly after the Launch Party, emails go out where people can finalize their orders and put deposits on their truck.

Also, at one time I swear Musk said volume production and deliveries will start in mid 2023.

I’m mostly in wait-and-see mode. We still don’t have a gigapress or 4680 production in Texas. Both of those are vital.

Musk did say just today that Semi is coming later this year which makes me think the first 4680s from Austin are eminent.
 
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Ogre

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Good guess for everything except the November CT event. I predict radio silence until day before production starts when they finally update the website. no events.
The had their first deliveries at the Model S Plaid event so the idea of a 6 month lag between the launch event and first deliveries would be odd.
 

TyPope

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I'm questioning a November re-unveiling. My guess is that it'll be a bandaid ripping. I don't see them unveiling and announcing real pricing then letting everyone gripe for 6-9 months until production. They'll tease the re-unveiling at the Q4 shareholders meeting, then sell to employees. Right after the employee shakedowns drop the announcement. The time between the re-unveiling with pricing to ordering/production will be super short, people who reserved a trimotor will get contacted right after the re-unveiling day. There will be griping, but it'll be quickly drowned out by videos of people ordering and eventually getting deliveries... soon followed by reviews.

I can imagine Musk saying, "If you are an early tri-motor reservation holder we'll be contacting you to finalize—with the option to upgrade to the Quad-motor which will be built first..."

They'll have the choice to opt for a lower spec non-CT4 or drop a standard deposit on the CT4 which will be made first, and be priced near the MSP. They may honor the FSD 2019 unveil price. Then after they get through the high end orders they'll eventually ramp production and move down spec; cranking out CTs like bags of potatoes at Five Guys.

But, who knows. I'm just guessing, which has officially gotten kinda old to me. It's all watch and wait at this point.
I agree. It makes sense that Tesla would have some kind of process where you put down an actual deposit prior to customizing your Cybertruck. I could see them asking for $5,000 down to ensure they have a delivery tied to an actual customer.
 


greggertruck

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  • September 2022: 9k ton Gigapress arrives at Giga Texas during the second half of the month. Other production equipment will be spotted arriving preceding and proceeding this.

  • Q3 2022 earnings call: Status of production in slide deck changes from "In Development" to "Under Construction." Additionally, announcement of Cybertruck Event 2.0 is announced (if not spoiled prematurely by Musk on Twitter)

  • November 2022: Almost exactly 3 years after initial Cybertruck was unveiled, the Cybertruck Event 2.0 happens that reveals updated specs and pricing. Additionally, the order confirmation/setup page goes live.

  • December 2022: Initial underbody castings for Cybertruck spotted. Likely towards the end of the month.

  • March 2023: More and more prototype sightings in and around Giga Texas using the underbody castings, armored glass, and exoskeletons made using production line equipment.

  • April 2023: EPA filings (official range numbers)

  • July 2023: Initial production begins. Limited to employee-only deliveries.

  • September 2023: Initial non-employee deliveries.

  • January 2024: First Canadian deliveries.
November, yes.

Initial production in May 23' though I think. Batteries are getting well produced if any level of Semi is hitting I think. There will be some filing leaks over the next several months too I'd bet. Features being patented.
We won't se anything discernibly manufactured til Jan 2023 I think. Press will be running by Christmas. It'll be wild to see single piece truck casting's in a haul dumpster, so you're about right with that.

I wonder if the "event" in November will be Semi, but CT will be shown off and talked about briefly.

I'm getting tired Elon. Really very tired.
 

firsttruck

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.....
We’ll likely see those early beta trucks before the next Cybertruck event happens. Shortly after the Launch Party, emails go out where people can finalize their orders and put deposits on their truck.

Also, at one time I sweat Musk said volume production and deliveries will start in mid 2023.
....
----------------------


Tesla, Inc. 2022 Annual Meeting of Stockholders
Aug 4, 2022
Tesla

video cued to start at 39:43

transcript:
Elon said
"... we're going to be installing the production equipment tooling and all starting the next couple months we'll begin the installation so aiming to be in volume production middle next year ..."

----




----------------------
 

Quicksilver

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My reservation number is in the mid 400K range.
I don't foresee getting mine until 2024 or 25.
More time to save up for the down payment on that sticker shock final price.o_O
 

charliemagpie

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Musk said volume by mid 23. Of course, he could be off by 6 months , but if we were to take it as probable...
How would the timeline look if we worked backwards from there ?
 

Ogre

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Musk said volume by mid 23. Of course, he could be off by 6 months , but if we were to take it as probable...
How would the timeline look if we worked backwards from there ?
Backwards
  • July 2023: Auto media declare the Cybertruck a complete failure, talk about how late it is and how it’s even uglier than at launch. Underplay range, towing, cargo capacity, and charging speed and focus on how impractical the form factor is.
  • Deliveries start in June of 2023
  • In late May or June, Tesla sends out emails prompting people start configuring trucks and has a launch party.
  • Tesla starts shipping trucks to employees in May of 2023.
  • At the Q1 Earnings call in April, Drew Baglino and Musk announce the 4680 ramp in Austin is producing enough batteries to start Cybertruck production. Possibly show off a completed beta truck and start talking about Cybertruck production starting at the end of the quarter.
  • Test front and rear ends come off the Gigapress in March of 2023 probably see piles of them around in the yard.
  • Gigapress installation complete in February of 2023. We might see a few test/ discarded samples from the new press.
  • Gigapress installation starts in January of 2023.
  • At the Q4 2022 earnings call, Tesla announces the Austin 4680 ramp is going well.
  • November 2022: Auto media make a big deal of the fact that the Cybertruck is now 3 years late (even though it will only be 11 months late at that point) and how Tesla has in all likelihood canceled it entirely. … but even if it launches it will be massively more expensive than launch pricing and have 50% less range.
I suspect some or all of these events will be sooner than the listed dates… that’s all “going backwards”.

 
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