Cybertruck timeline schedule prediction -- Agree or Disagree?

[flowerlandfilms]

• September 2022: 9k ton Gigapress arrives at Giga Texas during the second half of the month. Other production equipment will be spotted arriving preceding and proceeding this.
  
  
• Q3 2022 earnings call: Status of production in slide deck changes from "In Development" to "Under Construction." Additionally, announcement of Cybertruck Event 2.0 is announced (if not spoiled prematurely by Musk on Twitter)
  
  
• November 2022: Almost exactly 3 years after initial Cybertruck was unveiled, the Cybertruck Event 2.0 happens that reveals updated specs and pricing. Additionally, the order confirmation/setup page goes live.
  
  
• December 2022: Initial underbody castings for Cybertruck spotted. Likely towards the end of the month.
  
  
• March 2023: More and more prototype sightings in and around Giga Texas using the underbody castings, armored glass, and exoskeletons made using production line equipment.
  
  
• April 2023: EPA filings (official range numbers)
  
  
• July 2023: Initial production begins. Limited to employee-only deliveries.
  
  
• September 2023: Initial non-employee deliveries.
  
  
• January 2024: First Canadian deliveries.

Well the line equipment could be snuck in or indistinguishable from other tools and gizmos so we might not know about it.
But Gigapress can't possibly be missed with the level of scrutiny the factory and shipping lanes are under. Then there will be a period of (FOOTAGE NOT FOUND) as we try to guess how long it will take to assemble and get moving, until we spot test castings.
So if that happens according to your timeline, I think the rest is quite reasonable.

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[Ogre]

Well the line equipment could be snuck in or indistinguishable from other tools and gizmos so we might not know about it.
But Gigapress can't possibly be missed with the level of scrutiny the factory and shipping lanes are under. Then there will be a period of (FOOTAGE NOT FOUND) as we try to guess how long it will take to assemble and get moving, until we spot test castings.
So if that happens according to your timeline, I think the rest is quite reasonable.

It’s not entirely clear what they will use to fold the steel. If they are using big steel brakes, those will probably be conspicuous. I’m not sure about cutting the steel either. They have so many pieces of equipment coming in it’s hard to say if they would notice.

 

[charliemagpie]

There's still a lot of construction at the CT end.. Joe T. Video today shows interior earthworks ' big hole'.
Had me wondering if maybe the 9 ton (or 2) will be installed at that end.

We should tell if a great big chimney comes through the roof.

 

[TAP1A]

I don’t think the launch party/ happens until Tesla has rolled at least a few trucks off the line. We’ll likely see those early beta trucks before the next Cybertruck event happens. Shortly after the Launch Party, emails go out where people can finalize their orders and put deposits on their truck.

Also, at one time I swear Musk said volume production and deliveries will start in mid 2023.

I’m mostly in wait-and-see mode. We still don’t have a gigapress or 4680 production in Texas. Both of those are vital.

Musk did say just today that Semi is coming later this year which makes me think the first 4680s from Austin are eminent.

he did say volume production in mid 2023. so this can be anywhere between May and August.

 

[Ogre]

There's still a lot of construction at the CT end.. Joe T. Video today shows interior earthworks ' big hole'.
Had me wondering if maybe the 9 ton (or 2) will be installed at that end.

We should tell if a great big chimney comes through the roof.

I don’t think they left an opening big enough to get the Gigapress into the building. I suspect they will knock down a wall to get it in. Also, it seems like they use some of the pieces of the GP itself when they pour the foundation for it. So the pour will be part of the install. Then they have to wait a few weeks before the concrete is set enough to install the rest of it.

In any case, we’ve seen gigapresses arrive and they are quite conspicuous. It would be tough to slide one in the back door in the middle of the night.

 

[CyberGus]

Well the line equipment could be snuck in or indistinguishable from other tools and gizmos so we might not know about it.

Joe Tegtmeyer is quite adept at identifying shipments.

 

[jasonatsr]

I disagree that CT3 reservation holders will be given priority configuration opportunities. When reservations began at the 2019 unveiling, there was no indication that any of the 3 trims would be built ahead of the others and in fact, many speculated that the CT1 would be first off the line.

I think it's more likely that configurations will be offered in order of reservation number because there will be many (myself included) who reserved a CT2 who will gladly upgrade to a CT4 if that trim is first to production.

 

[Ogre]

I disagree that CT3 reservation holders will be given priority configuration opportunities. When reservations began at the 2019 unveiling, there was no indication that any of the 3 trims would be built ahead of the others and in fact, many speculated that the CT1 would be first off the line.

I think it's more likely that configurations will be offered in order of reservation number because there will be many (myself included) who reserved a CT2 who will gladly upgrade to a CT4 if that trim is first to production.

I think this will very likely be the case as well.

Hopefully we find out soon.

 

[Crissa]

I disagree that CT3 reservation holders will be given priority configuration opportunities. When reservations began at the 2019 unveiling, there was no indication that any of the 3 trims would be built ahead of the others and in fact, many speculated that the CT1 would be first off the line.

I think it's more likely that configurations will be offered in order of reservation number because there will be many (myself included) who reserved a CT2 who will gladly upgrade to a CT4 if that trim is first to production.

In fact, the trim that was put ahead changed as orders came in; the Tri Motor was last on launch night.

-Crissa

 

[ED_SFO]

Overall pretty close I'd say with OP guesses. My original guesses were not as specific because obviously it's hard to gauge...but it was

- Equipment installed by 4th quarter 2022
- Test mules of CT in Q1 2023
-CT event Q2 with new higher pricing
-Volume production begining Q3

 

[ED_SFO]

In fact, the trim that was put ahead changed as orders came in; the Tri Motor was last on launch night.

-Crissa

This goes back to pricing at the end of the day. If the price is too high, I don't think many would check that box to upgrade their orders.

 

[CyberGus]

I'm expecting IDRA crates to start arriving in the next 60 days. (I'm assuming the 9kt press is completed and is currently being disassembled/packed for shipment.)

First sighting of CT casting before Halloween

 

[TyPope]

My reservation number is in the mid 400K range.
I don't foresee getting mine until 2024 or 25.
More time to save up for the down payment on that sticker shock final price.

Same here. I'm still hoping that there will be some geographical spread of orders filled (like with my Model Y which we ordered months after reveal and got it in a month!). I'm in Nebraska and am really hoping the plan is to spread out the first ones so that more of the country will see them and want them... It wouldn't do to have only Texans with Cybertrucks...

 

[Ogre]

I'm expecting IDRA crates to start arriving in the next 60 days. (I'm assuming the 9kt press is completed and is currently being disassembled/packed for shipment.)

First sighting of CT casting before Halloween

This would be A+ on target I think.

 

[Sirfun]

I disagree that CT3 reservation holders will be given priority configuration opportunities. When reservations began at the 2019 unveiling, there was no indication that any of the 3 trims would be built ahead of the others and in fact, many speculated that the CT1 would be first off the line.

I think it's more likely that configurations will be offered in order of reservation number because there will be many (myself included) who reserved a CT2 who will gladly upgrade to a CT4 if that trim is first to production.

For some reason I did a screengrab when I ordered my single motor the night of the reveal. On that order page it says (as I remember) they intended to produce single first in late 2021 with AWD versions later in 2022. Here's that order page with a zoom on the small print.
Personally I agree, with Tesla changing their mind on versions and talking about starting production with Quad motors that weren't even available. They SHOULD allow people to upgrade somewhat in order of reservations. We will see.

The other funny part about this. On this order page it stated AWD production starting LATE 2022. So in theory they still aren't late with any AWD Cybertruck orders YET!

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