CyberTruck Tri/Quad Reservations

[xtreembob]

I reserved the tri-motor with FSD. I noticed on the spreadsheet that some Quad motor reservations were made. Was there a time when Tesla was taking those reservations? I‘ve heard that we may be offered an upgrade when they are closer to production.

I’m also trying to figure out where I may be once production starts next year. Elon is expecting ~250k vehicles by the end of 2023 from my understanding. If I take the ~1.4+ million reservations * 41.6% for tri-motors seems the result will be ~597k+. That sound right? Surely there will be some who may not keep their reservations and/or reduce the multiples of the vehicles they ordered once they have to put real money down.

I’m so excited as many are. Will upgrade to the quad if needed to get my vehicle sooner. Hoping I don’t have to wait too much past the end of 2023.

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[Dusty]

No. People may have indicated that they intend to buy the quad motor on the tracker. Tesla hasn't given anyone the option to reserve a quad motor.

 

[Ogre]

By the time people even realized the quad was likely, the ability to select trim was already removed from Tesla’s page. Nobody has “preordered” a quad.

 

[PressureCooker 45]

I reserved the tri-motor with FSD. I noticed on the spreadsheet that some Quad motor reservations were made. Was there a time when Tesla was taking those reservations? I‘ve heard that we may be offered an upgrade when they are closer to production.

I’m also trying to figure out where I may be once production starts next year. Elon is expecting ~250k vehicles by the end of 2023 from my understanding. If I take the ~1.4+ million reservations * 41.6% for tri-motors seems the result will be ~597k+. That sound right? Surely there will be some who may not keep their reservations and/or reduce the multiples of the vehicles they ordered once they have to put real money down.

I’m so excited as many are. Will upgrade to the quad if needed to get my vehicle sooner. Hoping I don’t have to wait too much past the end of 2023.

I think that the sheet is an approximation of customers rather that hard numbers ( No quad available at any time to order ) My reservation number is 112830014 and I expect my tri motor in April of 2024-

 

[xtreembob]

I think that the sheet is an approximation of customers rather that hard numbers ( No quad available at any time to order ) My reservation number is 112830014 and I expect my tri motor in April of 2024-

Agree regarding the spreadsheet numbers. How did you come up with your delivery date?

 

[Ogre]

Agree regarding the spreadsheet numbers. How did you come up with your delivery date?

Just add 4 years to your preorder date. That’s going to be as accurate as any estimate.

 

[xtreembob]

Just add 4 years to your preorder date. That’s going to be as accurate as any estimate.

That would be great as I’d get mine in Jan 2024

 

[Crissa]

Agree regarding the spreadsheet numbers. How did you come up with your delivery date?

The crowd-sourced spreadsheet had some assumptions of delivery pace and orders and spat out some numbers.

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I was optimistic about the spreadsheet in the beginning but now I think it is a waste of our collective energies.

 

[SpaceYooper]

I was optimistic about the spreadsheet in the beginning but now I think it is a waste of our collective energies.

I concur. Especially with people having quad reservations on there...unless it's literally talking about the 4 wheeler, which I don't think there is a waiting list for. It's lost any credibility it ever had.

 

[Crissa]

I concur. Especially with people having quad reservations on there...unless it's literally talking about the 4 wheeler, which I don't think there is a waiting list for. It's lost any credibility it ever had.

It's the same accuracy it always had.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

I was optimistic about the spreadsheet in the beginning but now I think it is a waste of our collective energies.

I’m not sure I’d call it a waste, but I don’t think it is valuable for projecting delivery dates at the moment.

That said. When deliveries do start, it should be a lot more useful. I know for example that @Crissa is about 18-20k ahead of me in the list. If they are going through the list mostly linearly, there is a good chance I’m about a month behind her. If you are #150,000 and someone in the 130 range gets tapped, you might think about making sure your financing is in order.

 

[Ogre]

It's the same accuracy it always had.

-Crissa

If there was a 10% error on the Model Y list, it might have been 1-2 weeks off predicting your delivery date. If there is a 10% error on the Cybertruck list, people deep in the long end of the list might get a number which is months off.

That said, the bigger problem is the spreadsheet spews out a number when we don’t even know the starting date. Also, it was super sluggish for me more than a year ago, so I imagine by now its a beast dealing with it.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

If the spreadsheet owners were to publish their algorithm and reasoning we could decide for ourselves whether or not there is value for us. It isn't a complete data set by any means, and it is based on information that isn't available to the authors (or anyone), such as start of production, production rate, take rate, conversion to other trucks rate, etc. "Data", and predictions based on it, should never be trusted without thorough vetting.

 

[Crissa]

The spreadsheet has the algorithm published in it. You could extract it if you were math-inclined.

-Crissa

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