Do you think CT prices will go up after FS?

[Cyber Man]

No. It's not disrespectful to call foolish behavior foolish.

You're allowed to be foolish.

-Crissa

It’s both foolish and childish to call something foolish without explaining why. People predict prices all the time. For example - Stock price prediction is a world on its own. There are companies that make millions of dollars predicting prices and giving guidance. A company is aptly named as “Montely Fool” for exactly doing that. I guess they chose that name because there are people like you calling it a foolish thing. So how is having a poll to predict future CT prices foolishness? Just because people predict prices will go up doesn’t imply that we want to pay more or indirectly ask Tesla to increase prices! Don’t you see any flaw in that critical thinking or are you one of those who twists facts to fit your feelings? You feel this is a foolishness thread so you just go around calling 140 people fools? Sigh!

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[Crissa]

It’s both foolish and childish to call something foolish without explaining why. People predict prices all the time. For example - Stock price prediction is a world on its own. There are companies that make millions of dollars predicting prices and giving guidance. A company is aptly named as “Montely Fool” for exactly doing that. I guess they chose that name because there are people like you calling it a foolish thing. So how is having a poll to predict future CT prices foolishness? Just because people predict prices will go up doesn’t imply that we want to pay more or indirectly ask Tesla to increase prices! Don’t you see any flaw in that critical thinking or are you one of those who twists facts to fit your feelings? You feel this is a foolishness thread so you just go around calling 140 people fools? Sigh!

Irrelevant.

You're here, telling a company to charge you more. Or charge others more. But since we're here waiting for trucks, you're specifically saying they should charge us more.

But the company will have more information than anyone here about the take rate of their offers.

-Crissa

 

[Cyber Man]

Irrelevant.

You're here, telling a company to charge you more. Or charge others more. But since we're here waiting for trucks, you're specifically saying they should charge us more.

But the company will have more information than anyone here about the take rate of their offers.

-Crissa

I get what you are saying. There is a difference between “predicting” and “asking”. Let’s play out your way - If Tesla sees this thread and finds out 40 people predicted prices will go up, do you think they will go to Elon and say “Boss, we need to increase prices by 10K because 40 people predicted that the prices will go up!”

We are not the Oracles, and we are not here to accomplish a self fulfilling prophecy. As you said, company will have more data than us. I have put my FS Beast reservation on hold because I don’t want to pay 20K. I reserved within 5 mins. I’ll be the last person to want to pay more, and I’m predicting that AWD prices will stay the same.

Your thinking is the perfect example of what I mean when some people twist facts to fit their feelings. You “feel” 40 votes can influence the price, so you twist “facts” to say “we are asking or saying or demanding or implying”.. No! We are simply “predicting”. Just like scientists predict climate change, stock brokers predict future prices, Wall Street predicts companies performance, etc. This poll is just a very microscopic prediction. Don’t brush off the comparisons as irrelevant. I also know that once feelings take over, no amount of rational reasoning can change that thinking. That’s the power of “feelings”. So I’m not going to argue further with you to say this is a prediction poll and not a wishful thinking or self fulfilling prophecy poll.

Even if this is a foolish poll, as the Steve Jobs once said - Stay Hungry, stay foolish. I learnt so much from others perspectives on this thread. That’s what forum is all about IMO - learning diverse perspectives to increase knowledge and awareness! If some don’t see that way and decide to label things as good/bad/ugly/stupid/foolish, it’s their loss. It absolutely doesn’t bother me, and I don’t give a F. I just want to set the record straight on this topic to ensure logic and critical thinking prevails instead of emotions and feelings. Tesla’s CT prices will NOT go up because 40 people predicted so, and doing this prediction is not “asking” to pay more. Even if we go with your failed logic, majority (69%) of members who took the poll have predicted that prices will either go down or stay the same. So there you go! Thanks to this poll, Tesla won’t increase the prices or probably even reduce, specifically to us, and I “feel” so “foolish” when I say that out aloud!

 

[Alto]

I think there is a strong possibility it will go up. The only thing that will hold it back is losing the tax incentive, which Tesla will want to avoid. However with the RWD version forthcoming, they might leave that one for the tax incentive.

Tesla is looking at high demand for 2 to 5 years that will outpace production. No company would ever lower prices in that scenario and inflation might push them to increase it.

It’s about 2 months since. The world hasn’t stopped turning. FS is still the only option, but in view of other Tesla price reductions, do you still have conviction in your prediction?

 

[Pops]

It’s about 2 months since. The world hasn’t stopped turning. FS is still the only option, but in view of other Tesla price reductions, do you still have conviction in your prediction?

Yes, quote me again in 2 years so we can see how it turned out. The base prices (not FS prices) will hold or go up slightly.

I mostly think I am correct because the production volume will be so low. Even with a low reservation conversation rate, demand should outpace production. History has shown us what Tesla does when demand outpaces production.

 

[themuleman]

How I see the CT in my use case

I just sold my F350 and had a GMC2500 before this. It is NOT a truck in that sense. I would categorize myself as a truck guy but the CT is definitely in my wheelhouse. However, it does not qualify in the truck category for pulling stuff like a fifth wheel (which I also sold off).

 

[Coagulation]

My guess is that prices will more or less be the same, apples to apples.

80k with no FSD, charging, connectivity, accessories, home power share, “lower end” wheels / tires

My guess is that they do honor of the $7000 FSD. that has value to you versus $99 per month, is a different conversation.

$87k now, 13k to go

Wheels and tires will probably be a $3-5k upgrade to be the same as the FS ones. This is my guess based on looking at up charges they charge for their other models from base to some higher wheel/tire package.

90-92k now, 8-10 to go.

The charging stuff (universal charger, gateway, mobile connector) is around $2,500.

The extra accessories around $500.

$93-95k now, 5-7 to go.

The rest is really the white decor, the lifetime, premium connectivity, and the foundation badge basically.

It’s within range for sure.

The one open question is, is Tesla going to charge some thing once they commercialize the home power share stuff beyond the cost of the hardware?

My guess is yes. No idea what that’s going to end up being.

So basically, the best deal in town will probably be an absolute base trim AWD for 72,500 after tax credit, getting a regular charger and not worrying about PowerShare.

For the beast, since you get the installation credit and light bar, non FS will probably be more expensive apples to apples

 

[Cyber Man]

My guess is that prices will more or less be the same, apples to apples.

80k with no FSD, charging, connectivity, accessories, home power share, “lower end” wheels / tires

My guess is that they do honor of the $7000 FSD. that has value to you versus $99 per month, is a different conversation.

$87k now, 13k to go

Wheels and tires will probably be a $3-5k upgrade to be the same as the FS ones. This is my guess based on looking at up charges they charge for their other models from base to some higher wheel/tire package.

90-92k now, 8-10 to go.

The charging stuff (universal charger, gateway, mobile connector) is around $2,500.

The extra accessories around $500.

$93-95k now, 5-7 to go.

The rest is really the white decor, the lifetime, premium connectivity, and the foundation badge basically.

It’s within range for sure.

The one open question is, is Tesla going to charge some thing once they commercialize the home power share stuff beyond the cost of the hardware?

My guess is yes. No idea what that’s going to end up being.

So basically, the best deal in town will probably be an absolute base trim AWD for 72,500 after tax credit, getting a regular charger and not worrying about PowerShare.

For the beast, since you get the installation credit and light bar, non FS will probably be more expensive apples to apples

You are right. I think many people haven’t cancelled the order because they are hoping to buy AWD with Tax credit. I’m hope they will keep AWD price the same or slightly lower it. I don’t think Beast price will go down.

 

[Crissa]

My guess is that they do honor of the $7000 FSD. that has value to you

[broken record]
They have to honor this price, they advertised it, it would be a criminal violation in California where they made the offer to fail to follow through.
[/broke record]

80k with no FSD, charging, connectivity, accessories, home power share, “lower end” wheels / tires

And only the wheels (since they're installed) count against the price for the tax credit. Connectivity is standard in the Model 3/Y; power share isn't a paid option, either, just compatible equipment.

-Crissa

 

[CyberTW]

I just sold my F350 and had a GMC2500 before this. It is NOT a truck in that sense. I would categorize myself as a truck guy but the CT is definitely in my wheelhouse. However, it does not qualify in the truck category for pulling stuff like a fifth wheel (which I also sold off).

Agreed.. though it “can” tow easily, the range that a lot of buddies go with their fifth wheels and in places devoid of SCs.. the CT isn’t for them and shouldn’t be.. for me, it’s an SUV with basic truck capability

 

[Mini2nut]

My guess is that FS will be the only trim offered until volume production kicks in. FS trucks may be produced for the remainder of the 2024 model year.

The only thing that bothers me is that later reservation holders are getting rewarded with FS invites as Tesla goes down the reservation line. Zero loyalty to those who ordered early and are waiting for non-FS Cybertruck’s.

Skippers like myself most likely wont receive their non-FS trucks until 2025, 8-months from now at the earliest.

 

[RoboTaxi]

Just needs to disrupt one major market to soak up the supply. If police departments started using them as police cruisers the back log would grow extensively.

 

[carsly]

$69k single motor
$89k dual motor
$109k beast

not crazy and with the order backlog prob makes a heck of a lot of sense.

 

[Cyber Man]

$69k single motor
$89k dual motor
$109k beast

not crazy and with the order backlog prob makes a heck of a lot of sense.

Interesting prediction. Agree on the beast. Dual motor price might not increase immediately after Foundation Series. I think Tesla might want buyers to get tax credit till it’s available. After that, they might increase it to $89K.

 

[carsly]

Interesting prediction. Agree on the beast. Dual motor price might not increase immediately after Foundation Series. I think Tesla might want buyers to get tax credit till it’s available. After that, they might increase it to $89K.

My guess, and we're all guessing, is the single motor will be the only tax credit eligible vehicle in 2025 if it even comes out. I think in 2026 - if the tax credit still exists - both the single and dual motor (which drops to $79K for 2026) are both eligible.

It seems ramp has stalled around 800-1,000 units/week - prob why the Cybertruck production lead is gone. That means demand will continue to outstrip supply for quite a while and with the earlier ramp for the Model 2 and robotaxi the cash has to come from somewhere. My take is that extra Cybertruck margins will help fuel the next stage of growth.

Also we have the practical problem of inflation sticking north of 3% which means we're in for higher interest rates for a while. Higher prices on Cybertruck give Tesla the room to offer subsidized financing and lease deals - 0.99% a la Model Y. On a 72 to 84 month loan, that lower interest rate can help people afford the higher buy-in price so there is really no interest rate risk (or added expense) to Tesla.

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