Does Tesla even need to create a new model vehicle to release a $25,000 car?

GnarlyDudeLive

Well-known member
First Name
Darin
Joined
Aug 26, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
333
Reaction score
750
Location
Chicago
Vehicles
2004 F350 Dually (Tri-CT reservation)
Occupation
Database Administrator
Country flag
Just running some numbers and if:
US Model 3 RWD (50Kwh battery) that now sells for $40,390
30% profit margin brings the cost to manufacture to $28,273
EV Manufacturer incentives of $35 per KWh reduces the cost by $1,750 (if I am not mistaken)
This brings cost to manufacture it down to $26,523.

I am thinking if Tesla creates a front Giga Casting an some other cost cutting refinements (like they have done for the Model Y) they may be able to have a compelling $25-30K vehicle and make a nice profit with just the existing Model 3.

Throw in the Consumer rebate of $7500 (If you qualify for it) and consumers could see a $18000-$25000 Tesla EV.

Or maybe not. :)

BTW: I am guessing right now the Model Y is cheaper to manufacture than the Model 3 for Tesla.

 

JBee

Well-known member
First Name
JB
Joined
Nov 22, 2019
Threads
5
Messages
1,849
Reaction score
1,969
Location
Australia
Vehicles
Cybertruck MY Prius Merc VW
Country flag
I brought up the subject of making a $25k M3 over a year ago after battery day. The proposed price advantage for the 4680 and structural pack would have already done it at the time. I agree that the 4680 MY is probably cheaper to make than the M3, the two main reasons for this development is to make it cheaper and better.
 

rr6013

Well-known member
First Name
Rex
Joined
Apr 22, 2020
Threads
51
Messages
1,506
Reaction score
1,442
Location
Coronado Bay Panama
Website
shorttakes.substack.com
Vehicles
1997 Tahoe 2 door 4x4
Occupation
Retired software developer and heavy commercial design builder
Country flag
Nobody wants to buy retreads even at a hell of a discount.

Americas are waiting to see the “affordable EV“ version of the next great iconic North American car in a long history of great cars. Failing that people will jump on affordable foreign.

Just as people jumped on MG, Austin Healey, VW and Mercedes in 60’s while American BIG 3 were too busy selling big, expensive high-performance muscle cars.

Same lessons different day…rinse and repeat
 

Tinker71

Well-known member
First Name
Ray
Joined
Aug 8, 2020
Threads
65
Messages
1,039
Reaction score
1,355
Location
Utah
Vehicles
1976 electric conversion bus
Occupation
Project Manager
Country flag
Just running some numbers and if:
US Model 3 RWD (50Kwh battery) that now sells for $40,390
30% profit margin brings the cost to manufacture to $28,273
EV Manufacturer incentives of $35 per KWh reduces the cost by $1,750 (if I am not mistaken)
This brings cost to manufacture it down to $26,523.

I am thinking if Tesla creates a front Giga Casting an some other cost cutting refinements (like they have done for the Model Y) they may be able to have a compelling $25-30K vehicle and make a nice profit with just the existing Model 3.

Throw in the Consumer rebate of $7500 (If you qualify for it) and consumers could see a $18000-$25000 Tesla EV.

Or maybe not. :)

BTW: I am guessing right now the Model Y is cheaper to manufacture than the Model 3 for Tesla.
I first thought the $25,000 model might be a 4 seater with a hatchback with a range of around 250 miles.

Wait a second, that is a literally Chevy bolt. (2023 MRSP $25,600)

If Tesla did it, maybe they could do a single cast base with more of a drop in battery that adds to the structure and make it Tesla cool and ready to remove the steering wheel for robo taxi hardware ready for $25,000 after rebates.
 

JBee

Well-known member
First Name
JB
Joined
Nov 22, 2019
Threads
5
Messages
1,849
Reaction score
1,969
Location
Australia
Vehicles
Cybertruck MY Prius Merc VW
Country flag
Robotaxi is a 4 seater to 12 seater van. If it's a 4 seater it might also be the $25k Tesla.
 


OP
OP

GnarlyDudeLive

Well-known member
First Name
Darin
Joined
Aug 26, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
333
Reaction score
750
Location
Chicago
Vehicles
2004 F350 Dually (Tri-CT reservation)
Occupation
Database Administrator
Country flag
Americas are waiting to see the “affordable EV“ version of the next great iconic North American car in a long history of great cars. Failing that people will jump on affordable foreign.
Same lessons different day…rinse and repeat
While I normally would agree, the $7500 consumer rebate (not including US manufacturer incentives) and the fact that no other foreign manufacture can even really get to a profitable high volume low cost EV for a good 3-5 years, I just don't see a a foreign EV capturing this segment. I am excluding China though as if people have the conception that Tesla service centers are lacking, China manufactures have nothing whatsoever even built up in the US yet for service plus the import duty/tax on China vehicles make it a rough go for them for a much longer stretch of time.
 

Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
93
Messages
10,347
Reaction score
16,973
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
Exactly, but Tesla can't make enough Model 3 to do it yet. It's not that they can't make it, it's that they couldn't possibly make as many as would sell at that price point. They can't make as many as will sell at twice that price point. And it is said every 10k 10x the possible sales.

Hence the 4680 and new factories.

-Crissa
 

charliemagpie

Well-known member
First Name
Charlie
Joined
Jul 6, 2021
Threads
17
Messages
1,078
Reaction score
1,872
Location
Australia
Vehicles
cybertruck
Occupation
retired
Country flag
The US manufacturer incentives could make a compelling case for Elon to change his mind about the $25,000 car /$35,000.

We are already selling everything we produce, and later, each Robotaxi will earn say $25,000 per year as net income. Won't say no to incentives, but not a deciding factor.


We will stick to current plans, and take incentives as they come. Tweak if we must. Thank your mother for the rabbits.
 

charliemagpie

Well-known member
First Name
Charlie
Joined
Jul 6, 2021
Threads
17
Messages
1,078
Reaction score
1,872
Location
Australia
Vehicles
cybertruck
Occupation
retired
Country flag
We need a question mark ❓ reaction.

o-o

-Crissa
Haha - You Americans are soooo behind the times. !

In reference to receiving incentives we didn't ask for

1663916310112.png


Thank you for having us

Dont let the door hit you on the way out

See ya later alligator


'thank your mother for the rabbits'. I think apt in that we receive a gift we didn't ask for, and I expect we will walk away from the incentives if we move towards Robotaxis. (perhaps)
 


JBee

Well-known member
First Name
JB
Joined
Nov 22, 2019
Threads
5
Messages
1,849
Reaction score
1,969
Location
Australia
Vehicles
Cybertruck MY Prius Merc VW
Country flag
Don't forget your refrigerator...

I hope they at least go halvsies with the subsidies and don't raise the price.
 

Tinker71

Well-known member
First Name
Ray
Joined
Aug 8, 2020
Threads
65
Messages
1,039
Reaction score
1,355
Location
Utah
Vehicles
1976 electric conversion bus
Occupation
Project Manager
Country flag
Robotaxi is a 4 seater to 12 seater van. If it's a 4 seater it might also be the $25k Tesla.
To continue, If Tesla makes a $25k car it would need to be very different from M3. By different I think primarily small. I am thinking ~30% smaller than the M3.

The Bolt is technically a 5 seater at 70" wide. A true 4 seater could be 62"?? wide with a arm rest/divider. With 4 passengers the rear storage would be very small, not suitable for an airport shuttle, but with the ability to fold down a rear seat or 2 then 2-3 people could still do a road trip.

I suspect Tesla has been working on the $25k car with a small team, maybe in China per the original rumor this whole time. Delivery times are way down and the time to announce might be November with the quickest production ramp yet.

A one piece cast frame with BYD LFP blade batteries around 45kWhrs would make a safe and cheap tiny car.
 

Throwcomputer

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 9, 2021
Threads
22
Messages
813
Reaction score
1,863
Location
Staten Island, NY
Vehicles
07 Ridgeline, Vintage Vespas, 02 Harley Sportster
Occupation
TV & Film
Country flag
You also aren't accounting for the savings they will reap from refining the lithium in Texas for the 4680 batteries. That could easily bring their cost to manufacture down near the 20k mark per vehicle (until those incentives expire)!
 

WildhavenMI

Well-known member
First Name
Nick
Joined
Mar 16, 2020
Threads
13
Messages
157
Reaction score
416
Location
Rural Michigan
Vehicles
Cybertruck (reserved), 2021 Bolt EV, 2018 Model X
Occupation
Digital @ Aurora Solar
Country flag
I first thought the $25,000 model might be a 4 seater with a hatchback with a range of around 250 miles.

Wait a second, that is a literally Chevy bolt. (2023 MRSP $25,600)

If Tesla did it, maybe they could do a single cast base with more of a drop in battery that adds to the structure and make it Tesla cool and ready to remove the steering wheel for robo taxi hardware ready for $25,000 after rebates.
As the owner of both a Chevy Bolt and a Tesla - the Bolt is a damn good car. In fact, with it as an option I don't know why anyone buys the M3 at nearly 2x the cost. The only real advantage on the M3 is (significantly) faster supercharging which is a big deal if travelling a lot, but as a daily driver the Bolt is hard to beat. You can get an all-options fully loaded Bolt for ~$35k, and IMO it's a better vehicle than the M3.
 

firsttruck

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 25, 2020
Threads
80
Messages
1,460
Reaction score
2,120
Location
mx
Vehicles
none
Country flag
...
I am excluding China though as if people have the conception that Tesla service centers are lacking, China manufactures have nothing whatsoever even built up in the US yet for service plus the import duty/tax on China vehicles make it a rough go for them for a much longer stretch of time.
Volvo & Polestar are now essentially a Chinese company ( Geely ) and Volvo & Polestar has dealers & service all over the U.S. & also many countries around the world.

I think in 4qtr of 2021 - 1qtr 2022, Geely Volvo Polestar delivered more full BEVs in U.S. than GM !!

Geely Volvo Polestar delivered more full BEVs in U.S. 2021-2022 than Toyota, Lexus, Honda!!

Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd (ZGH), commonly known as Geely /ˈdʒiːliː/, is a Chinese multinational automotive company headquartered in Hangzhou, Zhejiang. The company is privately held by Chinese billionaire business magnate Li Shufu. Geely Auto is currently the seventh largest automobile manufacturer in China, with 1.328 million sales in China in 2021. Globally, the group sold over 2.2 million cars in 2021,[9] and over 17,926 plug-in electric vehicles in January 2022.[10] The company produces and sells vehicles under its own branding - such as Geely Auto, Geometry, Maple, and Zeekr - and under foreign-located subsidiaries - such as Volvo Cars, Polestar, Lynk & Co, Proton, and Lotus - as well as commercial only vehicles under the London EV Company, Ouling Auto and Farizon Auto brands.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geely


Volvo Cars USA. Explore and design your favorite luxury Volvo SUV, wagon, crossover, sedan, and hybrid or electric vehicle today.
https://www.volvocars.com/us/dealer-locator/

Volvo Cars West Houston, Texas
Incentives
Current 2023 Volvo XC40 Recharge Pure Electric SUV Special Offer Carousel
https://www.volvocarswesthouston.co...V-Offers-US2023VOV21663a535ab1704646bf758.htm

All-electric car sales improved by almost 52% year-over-year to 2,494, but the result is still about two times lower than the peak of 5,256 in March.
Sep 04, 2022
By: Mark Kane
https://insideevs.com/news/608142/volvo-plugin-electric-car-sales-august2022/


Polestar USA
https://www.polestar.com/us/

( worldwide) The full BEV Polestar 2 ( made in China ) drives Polestar's sales up 123%
On the way to that number, this year’s target for sales is some 50,000, and Polestar has managed to flog 21,185 cars in the first six months of 2022 – up 123 per cent on the same period last year – and says it’s on track to hit, or exceed, the 50,000 target for the year.

Polestar reports 125% increase in electric car sales, becomes a quiet success in EV space
By Fred Lambert
Jul. 13th 2022
https://electrek.co/2022/07/13/pole...se-electric-car-sales-quiet-success-ev-space/

 
Last edited:

 
CYBERBACKPACK
Top