Dual Motor CT will be $75K. Change my mind.

[Bob Anderson]

We all know the CT will be more expensive, but there seems to be a consensus the CT2 will be priced around $63k from the original $50K. I am confused by this.

Let's look at some competition:
Model Y Long Range: $66K
Rivian R1T: $79K
Ford Lightning: $80K (XLT extended range, cheapest 300-mile version)
Hummer: $100K
Silverado EV: GMs website is a mess, I could never find actual prices for given specs.

Why would Tesla sell dual motor w/300-mile range for $10K less than the competition when they have the most preorder demand of any truck? Why would it sell at the same price as long-range MY when it has WAY more functionality? IDK, change my mind if I'm overlooking something.

 

[Alpine]

All the mind changing you can handle

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...rent-but-it-will-be-a-damn-fine-product.5441/

 

[cvalue13]

Silverado EV: GMs website is a mess, I could never find actual prices for given specs.

I think that’s only because the vehicle and it’s specs don’t exist yet

they’re still crowd-sourcing their ideas

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

There really is no point in conjecturing what the CT trim prices will be. Just let it go and save as much as you can before the prices are released. That is all anyone can do, other than canceling your reservation or dropping to another trim than you originally wanted. Trying to out-logic people who do not know what they are talking about (no disrespect intended but none of us has data) is an endless task. I do not know what I will be able to scrounge together over a year from now. I do expect Tesla to deal with inflation but I also expect it to try keep the prices down and to be competitive. What that will mean 12 months from now I really don't know.

 

[Bob Anderson]

All the mind changing you can handle

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...rent-but-it-will-be-a-damn-fine-product.5441/

Actually why I started this. Saw way too many people thinking the dual motor would only be adjusted ~$15k. Doesn't make any sense they'd sell it for less than competition when they have more demand. If Tesla can get more for a vehicle they will, they've demonstrated this time and time again.

 

[Bob Anderson]

There really is no point in conjecturing what the CT trim prices will be. Just let it go and save as much as you can before the prices are released. That is all anyone can do, other than canceling your reservation or dropping to another trim than you originally wanted. Trying to out-logic people who do not know what they are talking about (no disrespect intended but none of us has data) is an endless task. I do not know what I will be able to scrounge together over a year from now. I do expect Tesla to deal with inflation but I also expect it to try keep the prices down and to be competitive. What that will mean 12 months from now I really don't know.

IDK, isn't conjecturing fun? I enjoy it, and enjoy when someone points out angles I haven't thought of before. Conjecture is 99% of what's posted on these forums. No one knows, you are right, but you can make reasonable assumptions.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

IDK, isn't conjecturing fun? I enjoy it, and enjoy when someone points out angles I haven't thought of before. Conjecture is 99% of what's posted on these forums. No one knows, you are right, but you can make reasonable assumptions.

Sure, what else are we doing on Tuesday morning anyway

 

[CyberBC]

My guess is that the price will depend on a balance between Elon's conscience/feelings regarding the launch prices and secondly demand. I don't think they are big at doing consumer research so they won't have a good handle on demand until they start selling vehicles with the new specs and price. If they start out with two low a price and the order line goes to Mars then it will be hard to bump the price on people who have previously placed orders. I think they will have to start fairly high to both annoy the least people and to keep the wait time reasonable. I think they made a mistake by letting the order list get too long without cutting it off like the other guys. I'm going to bet 70k for the dual just because of the Elon conscience factor for the current orders and new orders will start jumping quick to keep the line reasonable. Elon will try to keep his fan boys happy.

 

[CyberBC]

Has a staggered pricing on pre-orders ever been done? With 1.5 mill orders it may be fair. One price for first 100k then 5% more for each 100k tier after. Don't hate me. It's just an idea. Any guess which tier I'm in.

 

[egandalf]

Sure, what else are we doing on Tuesday morning anyway

Scouring the internets for Cybertruck news & rumors that I haven't yet seen... obviously. I figure that applies to this forum at large, no?

 

[Crissa]

Actually why I started this. Saw way too many people thinking the dual motor would only be adjusted ~$15k. Doesn't make any sense they'd sell it for less than competition when they have more demand. If Tesla can get more for a vehicle they will, they've demonstrated this time and time again.

It doesn't makes sense to sell it to compete with Ford, as their original intent?

-Crissa

 

[TyPope]

I don't agree that Tesla sells cars for as much as they can get. There is a queue for all their vehicles so they could charge more... The Model S's competition costs how much? I don't think the Cybertruck will cost more than a Ford Lightning for an equivalent trim level... In fact, despite the inflation, I bet that Tesla comes kind of close to their original pricing. There will be a little upward pricing but I would bet it won't be anywhere near inflation. Is it possible a CT could be less expensive than other Tesla models? Yes. It should be easier to produce though it will use more batteries. Opinions... We all have them.

 

[egandalf]

We all know the CT will be more expensive, but there seems to be a consensus the CT2 will be priced around $63k from the original $50K. I am confused by this.

Let's look at some competition:
Model Y Long Range: $66K
Rivian R1T: $79K
Ford Lightning: $80K (XLT extended range, cheapest 300-mile version)
Hummer: $100K
Silverado EV: GMs website is a mess, I could never find actual prices for given specs.

Why would Tesla sell dual motor w/300-mile range for $10K less than the competition when they have the most preorder demand of any truck? Why would it sell at the same price as long-range MY when it has WAY more functionality? IDK, change my mind if I'm overlooking something.

I like the conjecture, too, but disagree primarily because Elon & Tesla have repeatedly stated that they don't really pay much attention to what other companies are doing.

Now, we could absolutely argue against this with evidence like 4-wheel steering. GM introduced it in the Hummer EV, at a ridiculous price, and then Tesla added it to their own set of expected features. One might look at this one of two ways. OMG MOAR COST - or - less variability front-to-back = minimal lift in cost. My optimistic side hopes for the latter. My realist side assumes the former.

That being said, I don't think Tesla has much history of taking pricing cues from competitors. There are far more down-market players who "compete" with the Model Y now. Hyundai, Kia, etc. These aren't performance vehicles, but they draw similar buyers who want an electric crossover SUV. This hasn't had any (apparent) affect on Tesla pricing, which continues to move upward through a combination of demand and supply cost.

Supply costs are - generally - lower than they were 6-18 months ago. Actually approaching 2019 levels in some cases. Steel Rebar, for example, was at ~3800/tonne in November 2019 and is ~4000/tonne today after peaking near 6000/tonne in May of last year.

Nickel is up somewhat from November 2019 (~15,000 to ~22,000) but down dramatically from its supply constrained peak of 48,000 just this past March.

Lithium, on the other hand, has gone freaking ape-shit in the past year by nearly 10x-ing.

My point is that this conjecture can be based on a lot of things, but my conjecture is that it's going to be more based on material supply and Tesla just doing whatever they want as opposed to what others are doing.

 

[Bob Anderson]

It doesn't makes sense to sell it to compete with Ford, as their original intent?

-Crissa

I'm getting a little fuzzy with my time lines, but wasn't the CT unveil around the time they announced the $25k car? Elon said they aren't even working on this car now. Maybe someday, but I think Tesla realized how for the foreseeable future there will be extreme demand and has instead focused on margins.

I like the conjecture, too, but disagree primarily because Elon & Tesla have repeatedly stated that they don't really pay much attention to what other companies are doing.

Now, we could absolutely argue against this with evidence like 4-wheel steering. GM introduced it in the Hummer EV, at a ridiculous price, and then Tesla added it to their own set of expected features. One might look at this one of two ways. OMG MOAR COST - or - less variability front-to-back = minimal lift in cost. My optimistic side hopes for the latter. My realist side assumes the former.

That being said, I don't think Tesla has much history of taking pricing cues from competitors. There are far more down-market players who "compete" with the Model Y now. Hyundai, Kia, etc. These aren't performance vehicles, but they draw similar buyers who want an electric crossover SUV. This hasn't had any (apparent) affect on Tesla pricing, which continues to move upward through a combination of demand and supply cost.

Supply costs are - generally - lower than they were 6-18 months ago. Actually approaching 2019 levels in some cases. Steel Rebar, for example, was at ~3800/tonne in November 2019 and is ~4000/tonne today after peaking near 6000/tonne in May of last year.

Nickel is up somewhat from November 2019 (~15,000 to ~22,000) but down dramatically from its supply constrained peak of 48,000 just this past March.

Lithium, on the other hand, has gone freaking ape-shit in the past year by nearly 10x-ing.

My point is that this conjecture can be based on a lot of things, but my conjecture is that it's going to be more based on material supply and Tesla just doing whatever they want as opposed to what others are doing.

Could be, all part of the fun in conjecture! One benefit of us following the EV movement is there is definitely an opportunity to benefit from the insane demand coming. Stocks, and knowing even if you buy an electric truck at an insane price, most likely you'd be able to turn around and flip it for profit.

 

[cvalue13]

Conjecture is 99% of what's posted on these forums.

conservative!