Sirfun

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In yesterday's earnings call I heard Elon answer a question about new products coming out. He was talking about new products that they haven't even revealed. But it really fits with why they didn't start production on the Cybertruck or any other new products over the last year or more. It's in this video at 0:49:19.

Here's what he said:
What is the limiting factor for new vehicles? Because for the longest time we've been constrained on total cell, you know lithium-ion production output, and some people said like why not this car to market or that other car to market? Well it doesn't really help if all you're doing is shuffling around the batteries from one car to another. In fact, it hurts because you add complexity, but you don't add incremental volume. So it's pointless, in fact it's counterproductive to add model complexity without solving the availability of lithium-ion batteries. We want new product introduction to match where the cells are available for that new product to use without cannibalizing the cells of the other cars. That's the actual limiting factor for new models, NOT anything else really.

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greggertruck

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I gather as much. Max profitability on product they can max output. They didn’t just sit on Cybertruck. They’ve been engineering. Doing what they can.

It’ll look like 2019. But it won’t be much like it otherwise.
 

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My thought all along as to why the delays and to a minor degree i thought the SS body mass production raw material, technique and execution.
 

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In yesterday's earnings call I heard Elon answer a question about new products coming out. He was talking about new products that they haven't even revealed. But it really fits with why they didn't start production on the Cybertruck or any other new products over the last year or more. It's in this video at 0:49:19.















Here's what he said:







What is the limiting factor for new vehicles? Because for the longest time we've been constrained on total cell, you know lithium-ion production output, and some people said like why not this car to market or that other car to market? Well it doesn't really help if all you're doing is shuffling around the batteries from one car to another. In fact, it hurts because you add complexity, but you don't add incremental volume. So it's pointless, in fact it's counterproductive to add model complexity without solving the availability of lithium-ion batteries. We want new product introduction to match where the cells are available for that new product to use without cannibalizing the cells of the other cars. That's the actual limiting factor for new models, NOT anything else really.















he said that before...it's not new.... nevermind awaiting the gigapress and the factory itself.
 

CostcoSamples

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I'm sure a full and more nuanced answer would have been to talk about factory development, tooling, engineering, supply chain, etc. But Elon is the master of big picture thinking. I love how he puts things into perspective.
 

electricAK

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So then, are we confident that Tesla can actually source all the cells they will need to ramp the CT as part of a 2+million vehicle/year (+megapacks) plan?

I've never been clear how we know they have access to enough raw materials (lithium, nickel, etc) when other manufacturers seem to be battery constrained.
 


Ogre

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I thought we all understood that we needed 4680 production for the Cybertruck to happen. If it wasn’t there on day 1, it was understood pretty early on.

And 4680 output is around 4-5 gWh or roughly enough for 500 trucks a week.

Sounds like it’s finally happening though? Their first line in Austin is operational and 3 mare are “in various stages of installation and start up”. Also the Giga Nevada announcement, I think they waited until their 4680 production was nailed before they started ramping that up.
 

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So then, are we confident that Tesla can actually source all the cells they will need to ramp the CT as part of a 2+million vehicle/year (+megapacks) plan?



I've never been clear how we know they have access to enough raw materials (lithium, nickel, etc) when other manufacturers seem to be battery constrained.
planning and vertical integration. legacy did neither.
 

ED_SFO

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I don't think we will be cell constrained when CT gets into volume production next year. They should have all their battery lines up and running by then...plus all their battery partners will be making alot more cells too.
 
 




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