Elon Musk’s “Product Roadmap” and Conference call Transcript

Ogre

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A lot has been said about what was and wasn’t part of the product roadmap so I snagged that section out of the transcript from The Motley Fool.

Let's see, so on the product road map front, there's quite a lot to talk about. I'm not going to go through every sort of thing that we're working on because I think a lot of them deserve product launches of their own as opposed to a few minutes on an earnings call. So I'll talk kind of at a high level -- yeah, mostly at a high level.

The fundamental focus of Tesla this year is scaling output. So both last year and this year, if we were to introduce new vehicles, our total vehicle output would decrease. This is a very important point that I think people do not -- a lot of people do not understand. So last year, we spent a lot of engineering and management resources solving supply chain issues, rewriting code, changing our chips, reducing the number of chips we need, with chip drama central.

And there were not -- that was not the only supply chain issue, so -- just hundreds of things. And as a result, we were able to grow almost 90% while at least almost every other manufacturer contracted last year. So that's a good result. But if we had introduced, say, a new car last year, we would -- our total vehicle output would have been the same because of the constraints -- the chips constraints, particularly.

So if we'd actually introduced an additional product, that would then require a bunch of attention and resources on that increased complexity of the additional product, resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered. And the same is true of this year. So we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year. It would not make any sense because we'll still be parts constrained.

We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling, whatnot to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year. That is most likely. But like I said, it is dependent on are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars? So in terms of priority of products, I think the -- I think actually the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the Optimus humanoid robot. This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time.

If you think about the economy, it is -- the foundation of the economy is labor. Capital equipment is distilled labor. So what happens if you don't actually have a labor shortage? I'm not sure what an economy even means at that point. That's what Optimus is about, so very important.
I highlighted the bits I think are most relevant to the Cybertruck. A lot of talk about them ignoring it for the year, but it sounds like they are continuing to get it ready for production. They are just not planning on starting production this year.

The other bit I found super interesting was a quick blurb right at the beginning. What other products would they be announcing that would require a separate launch?

 
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Another tidbit this one from Drew Baglino regarding cell production. He sounds quite confident they have licked the production 4680 issues and are ready to start cranking out cells like mad.

Sure. Yeah, yeah, sure. So throughout 2021, we focused on growing cell supply alongside our in-house 4680 effort to provide us flexibility and insurance as we attempt to grow as fast as possible. As we sit today, sales from suppliers is actually -- it sort of exceeds our other factory-limiting constraints that you mentioned, Elon, in 2022, or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans based on the information we have.

But we are making meaningful progress of the ramp curve in Kato. We're building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.

Our focus on the cell, the pack, and the vehicles here is driving yield quality and cost to ensure we're ready for larger volumes this year as we ramp and next year. And the 4680 and pack tool installations here at Giga Austin are progressing well with some areas producing first parts.
The fact that they are not going to be constrained by battery supply is pretty huge. I am really starting to wonder how big the Model Y production is going to be by year end.
 
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One more clip from the CFO, Zach Kirkhorn. He was more polished and spoke CFOese, but these couple sentences were a bit of a jaw drop humble-brag.

As we look forward, we expect 2022 to be another significant and exciting year for the company. We continue to drive for vehicle volume growth at or above 50%, as Elon mentioned, and our plans show that this is actually achievable with just our Fremont and Shanghai factories.
They are talking about increasing volume in Fremont and Shanghai by 50%… that’s 50% growth without accounting for the 2 monster factories they just completed. Seems like there is a very strong chance we’ll see a 2m - 2.5m vehicles/ year run rate by year end. Essentially doubling capacity again.
 

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The good news is that Tesla has the opportunity to fine-tune the engineering of the Cybertruck while they wait for the chip constraints to ease. By the time they are ready for production, they will be able to ramp quickly.

Basically, we need to pray for more chip factories, or stop buying so many PlayStations
 

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The good news is that Tesla has the opportunity to fine-tune the engineering of the Cybertruck while they wait for the chip constraints to ease. By the time they are ready for production, they will be able to ramp quickly.

Basically, we need to pray for more chip factories, or stop buying so many PlayStations
Yes, so by the time they are ready to produce CT, maybe they have gotten rid of the BAW. And by then hopefully NTSA will approve camera mirrors.

And who knows what other minor changes Elon will make.

I’m not minding the wait. It just makes my truck more awesome. Think of the time you have to wait for your date on prom night. Just try not to get under her dad’s skin.

And by the time I get my CT, FSD will be a thing. So I’ll be able to take naps in the truck while it drives me to my next fun location.

This thing is going to rock!!!

But I get the disappointment of those who think they might not be around for it. Better get to extending your best before by date while you can so you can take advantage of the awesomeness.
 


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The good news is that Tesla has the opportunity to fine-tune the engineering of the Cybertruck while they wait for the chip constraints to ease. By the time they are ready for production, they will be able to ramp quickly.

Basically, we need to pray for more chip factories, or stop buying so many PlayStations
Yeah… I think the impression a lot of people got was that they were shelving the program. That was sort of my impression on my first run through as well, but it’s pretty clear they are working on getting all the pieces in place so when they have the bandwidth and supplies to bring this online they can turn it up quickly.

It makes me optimistic about a super quick ramp up.

I’m not minding the wait. … This thing is going to rock!
I AM!!!

Give me my Truck NOOOOWWW!!!

I’m not good at patient. But I don’t really need a truck at this point. I just want one very much.
 

 
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