Or maybe he (EM) thinks the conversion rate of reservation holder to purchaser will be lower then what they saw with their previous reservations. I know there was a poll asking that question here a while back. I don't remember what our collective majority thought the conversation rate would be, but I know I was on the low end of the guestimate. I think it will be about 1/3...maybe 1/2.
Nothing new. This is already well-known by anyone following Tesla Cybertruck.
This point drives other manufacturers crazy. “What, your unit is sold BEFORE manufacture?”
Conversion rate likely depends 99% on how close to launch specs the final is. If they nail the spirit of the launch, conversion rate should be well above 50%. If they drop the brief, then who knows.
Well, they've had trouble with the Model X and S this last year, the two models still have really long build lags for standard models.
Maybe, but I just think $100 deposit is easy. Actually buying the $40k - $70k truck is harder. Plus lots of the multi-reservation holders will only buy 1.
If I'm not mistaken, the other vehicles had multiple lines at multiple factories. The CT is being built on 1 line at 1 factory for now. I couldn't find it but I know I read somewhere that the limiting factor to the gigapress was heat. Again, I can't find the source, but I thought I read, each press could put out a max of ~200k casts per year, but no press has done more then ~150k to date. We're assuming the yet to be delivered 8k or 9k press is the press that will be used for the CT and we only know of 1 or 2 of those coming, (1 for the front cast and 1 for the rear cast I believe). I might be completely wrong, but that's why I'm saying it's going to be a while before we see 250k/Yr coming off the line(s). Not even to mention this is the only vehicle they are currently trying to mass produce with an exoskeleton. They don't have multiple factory lines working on this. So I do think the production ramp up will be slower then then other vehicles while they figure it out.
Not if he thinks the production rate is 150k/yr and the conversion rate of 1.5M reservations is actually 1/3. That would make for about 500k purchasers and maybe 450k CT produced in the first 3 years...which is probably still more then the number of Lightnings built by then.
I honestly don’t get this argument.
It’s being given the same resources/ floor space as the Texas & Berlin Model Y lines which are scheduled for 500k units/ year.
I know around a year ago Tesla was getting around 150k out of their Gigapresses but I’m not sure that’s still true. Tesla has increased production in Shanghai and Fremont a ton over the past year. Musk has quoted the 250k number multiple times with regards to the Cybertruck. I find it unlikely they miss that.
